The match is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home win probability is 32%, a draw 29%, and an away win 39%. The average expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.9% probability. Preston, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages one goal scored and 1.6 conceded. Bristol City, on the road versus a comparable opponent, averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with a 7% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 6% edge), and Under 5.5 (95.3% with a 4% edge). Preston has recently lost three in a row, while Bristol City has only drawn their last match.
Results analysis
The match saw Bristol City extend their two-game winning run, while Preston’s five-match losing streak ended with a 1-3 defeat. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct, and the final score matched the predicted outcome. The model’s selection of an away win carried a 39% probability, and the predicted total of 2.6 goals fell within the most likely 2-goal range. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%) and Under 5.5 (95.4%). The model’s predictions were remarkably accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Preston win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied 33.0% · @ 2.85
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
Betfair
2.90
Dafabet
2.90
William Hil
2.90
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.34
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.46
Dafabet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Bristol City win✓ Hit
38.8%
Avg Implied 38.8% · @ 2.43
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.49
Pinnacle
2.48
Unibet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.46
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Preston
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.70
0.93
1.80
0.93
1.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
0.00
4.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.58
1.00
1.64
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.40
1.47
1.53
1.07
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.41
1.44
1.57
1.57
1.23
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
@ 1.28+0.7%
Under 1.5
26.2%
@ 3.48-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.2%
@ 1.90-2.5%
Under 2.5
52.8%
@ 1.88+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.96
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.6%
@ 3.20-3.7%
Under 3.5
74.4%
@ 1.33+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
10Bet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.3%
@ 1.68-2.1%
No
46.7%
@ 2.09+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
No
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.01+6.4%
0-1
9.2%@ 7.94+3.5%
0-0
9.0%@ 9.60+4.3%
1-2
8.5%@ 8.72+3.4%
1-0
8.1%@ 8.84+3.0%
2-1
7.6%@ 9.46+2.9%
0-2
7.0%@ 11.73+3.2%
2-0
5.6%@ 13.99+2.4%
Preston goals ↓
Bristol City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
9.2%
7.0%
3.2%
1.1%
1
8.1%
14%
8.5%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.6%
7.6%
5.2%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.3%
3.1%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Preston goals (down), columns = Bristol City goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Preston is 0.04 points worse than Bristol City in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Preston is 0.09 goals worse than Bristol City in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Preston is 0.07 goals worse than Bristol City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Preston is 3.7 percentage points worse than Bristol City in terms of average possession (46% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Preston
For 5.1 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 10.1 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol City
For 4.3 · Against 7.3 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Preston
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.2
10.0
3.3
3.5
3.1
20.2
19.2
21.3
vs Stronger (7)
10.9
12.2
9.0
1.3
1.5
1.0
16.9
14.5
20.0
vs Similar (43)
10.6
11.0
10.2
3.7
3.9
3.4
20.7
20.0
21.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
65%
50%
48%
54%
42%
32%
27%
38%
% under line
42%
35%
50%
52%
46%
58%
68%
73%
62%
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.9
10.3
3.9
3.5
4.3
21.2
19.4
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
9.0
11.0
4.7
6.0
4.0
23.3
25.0
22.5
vs Similar (45)
9.8
9.7
10.0
3.8
3.5
4.2
21.0
19.3
22.8
vs Weaker (2)
16.5
17.0
16.0
5.0
3.0
7.0
22.5
16.0
29.0
% over line
56%
46%
67%
56%
46%
67%
46%
27%
67%
% under line
44%
54%
33%
44%
54%
33%
54%
73%
33%
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Bolton
10.4
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.3
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.1
Swansea
10.0
QPR
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Sheffield United
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Bristol City
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
West Ham
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Southampton
3.9
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.7
Swansea
22.4
West Ham
22.2
Portsmouth
22.1
Bolton
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Birmingham
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Sheffield United
21.5
Norwich
21.4
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
West Brom
20.8
Blackburn
20.8
Stoke
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.2
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.35
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Unibet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.11
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.72
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Superbet
2.47
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.72
Under
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.80
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Preston or Draw✗ Miss
61.2%
Avg Implied 60.9% · @ 1.54
Edge
+0.3%
32%
29%
39%
covers Preston + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
1xBet
1.53
SBO
1.53
Preston or Bristol City✓ Hit
70.9%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.30
Edge
-1.3%
32%
29%
39%
covers Preston + Bristol City
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Draw or Bristol City✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied 66.9% · @ 1.40
Edge
+1.0%
32%
29%
39%
covers Draw + Bristol City
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Preston over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.2%
@ 1.31-0.9%
Under
29.8%
@ 3.22+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.43
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Preston over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.1%
@ 2.54-2.6%
Under
65.9%
@ 1.48+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Preston over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 5.95-3.3%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.10+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.00
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.09
Preston over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 14.75-3.0%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Bristol City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.1%
@ 1.25-0.3%
Under
25.9%
@ 3.63+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.88
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Bristol City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.2%
@ 2.27-2.0%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.59+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Unibet
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Bristol City over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
15.5%
@ 5.06-2.8%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.14+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bristol City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 11.50-3.4%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.75
Betano
9.25
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Preston, so a minus line means Preston give that many goals of a start and Bristol City receive them. At -1, Preston must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Preston win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Preston)Actual: Bristol City
Preston -2
4.6%
@ 11.87-2.9%
Draw -2
9.4%
@ 7.12-3.0%
Bristol City +2
86.0%
@ 1.11+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
7.50
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Away
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Preston)Actual: Bristol City
Preston -1
14.0%
@ 5.55-2.2%
Draw -1
18.1%
@ 4.33-2.7%
Bristol City +1
67.9%
@ 1.43+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Away
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Handicap +1 (Preston)Actual: Bristol City
Preston +1
61.2%
@ 1.52+2.0%
Draw +1
20.4%
@ 4.06-1.8%
Bristol City -1
18.4%
@ 4.84-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Draw
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Handicap +2 (Preston)Actual: Draw
Preston +2
81.6%
@ 1.14+3.0%
Draw +2
11.8%
@ 6.91-1.2%
Bristol City -2
6.7%
@ 10.72-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
9.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Preston
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.77
0.36
0.64
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.78
0.64
0.71
0.69
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.37-0.5%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 2.89+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.90
William Hil
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.1%
@ 2.76-1.6%
Under 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.40+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.84
Superbet
2.77
Under
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 6.86-2.4%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.07+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Preston over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.7%
@ 2.14+1.2%
Under
55.3%
@ 1.65-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Unibet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.64
Preston over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 6.72-2.7%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.07+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Preston over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 18.25-3.1%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bristol City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.5%
@ 2.02-5.6%
Under
59.5%
@ 1.73+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.06
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Bristol City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 6.11-5.3%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.09+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
6.25
1xBet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.20
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Bristol City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 16.00-4.0%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Preston
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.60
1.13
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.81
0.64
1.00
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.87
0.87
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.67
0.93
0.86
0.54
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.7%
@ 1.23-1.1%
Under 0.5
25.3%
@ 3.86+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
Unibet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Superbet
3.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.1%
@ 2.08-3.9%
Under 1.5
58.9%
@ 1.70+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.15
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Unibet
2.07
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 4.37-4.9%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.18+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.60
William Hil
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Preston over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.6%
@ 1.80+0.4%
Under
48.4%
@ 1.90-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Under
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Preston over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 4.87-4.0%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.14+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Preston over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 13.12-4.4%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bristol City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.0%
@ 1.70-6.4%
Under
52.0%
@ 2.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
1.97
Bristol City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.1%
@ 4.42-4.8%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.17+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Bristol City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 11.75-4.3%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.2%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.09
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.0%
1.11
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
81.6%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.7%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.4%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
74.1%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.8%
1.28
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.9%
1.30
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
-0.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Preston
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jusef Erabi33%
J. Thompson17%
Andrew Hughes0%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
L. Lindsay0%
L. Leroy0%
Delano Burgzorg0%
A. Vukčević0%
Pol Valentín0%
Ali McCann0%
Andrew Moran0%
H. Clarke0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ali McCann75%
L. Leroy40%
Andrew Hughes33%
J. Thompson33%
Pol Valentín33%
H. Clarke25%
L. Lindsay20%
A. Vukčević20%
Jusef Erabi17%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
Delano Burgzorg0%
Andrew Moran0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Delano Burgzorg33%
A. Vukčević20%
Andrew Hughes0%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
L. Lindsay0%
J. Thompson0%
L. Leroy0%
Pol Valentín0%
Ali McCann0%
Andrew Moran0%
H. Clarke0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
Jusef Erabi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Leroy20%
Jusef Erabi17%
Andrew Hughes0%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
L. Lindsay0%
J. Thompson0%
Delano Burgzorg0%
A. Vukčević0%
Pol Valentín0%
Ali McCann0%
Andrew Moran0%
H. Clarke0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
Bristol City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Twine50%
Dominic Ballard40%
J. Knight20%
L. Tolaj20%
Lisav Naif Eissat20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
S. Tickle0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Rio Cardines0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Randell33%
J. Knight20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
S. Twine0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
L. Tolaj0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Rio Cardines0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rio Cardines75%
J. Wallace20%
L. Tolaj20%
C. Pring0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
J. Knight0%
S. Twine0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Tolaj40%
S. Twine25%
S. Greenwood20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
J. Knight0%
George Tanner0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Rio Cardines0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Preston's squad is €23m less valuable than Bristol City's (€43m vs €66m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Preston's attack is €12m less valuable than Bristol City's (€17m vs €29m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Preston's midfield is €16m less valuable than Bristol City's (€3m vs €19m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Preston's defence is €4m more valuable than Bristol City's (€22m vs €18m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley