PSV Eindhoven is the clear favourite to win against Groningen, with a 72% chance of taking all three points at home. This is largely due to Groningen's struggles on the road, particularly against stronger opponents, where they have scored an average of just 0.5 goals and conceded 2.25. In contrast, PSV Eindhoven has been in excellent form at home, scoring 3.42 goals on average and conceding just 1.5.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 4.3 goals and a most likely total of 6+ goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 to PSV Eindhoven, with a probability of 8.1%.
PSV Eindhoven's home scoring and conceding records suggest they will dominate the match. Groningen's away form, however, hints at a possible late comeback. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 (93.1%), Over 2.5 (79.7% with a 9% edge), and Home win (71.8% with a 6% edge).
The probabilities for the match outcome are 72% for a home win, 16% for a draw, and 13% for an away win.
Results analysis
PSV Eindhoven’s 5-1 triumph over Groningen confirms the model’s forecast, with the home side extending a two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 73 % probability and proved correct. Every suggested selection hit the mark: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.1 %, Home +2 handicap at 95.1 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 95.0 %, Under 7.5 at 93.3 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.9 %, and Over 1.5 at 91.5 %. The final score of 5-1 matched the model’s expected outcome, underscoring the accuracy of the predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
PSV Eindhoven win✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.30
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Draw✗ Miss
15.6%
Avg Implied 16.1% · @ 5.86
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.35
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
6.20
Betano
6.20
Betfair
6.00
Groningen win✗ Miss
11.0%
Avg Implied 11.6% · @ 8.10
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
9.00
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Betfair
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
PSV Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.67
1.47
3.19
1.50
2.07
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.88
1.36
3.46
1.46
2.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.50
1.21
1.38
1.62
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
1.62
2.00
1.20
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (22)
1.45
1.36
1.22
1.22
1.62
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.5%
@ 1.06+2.6%
Under 1.5
8.5%
@ 8.44-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
888Sport
9.00
Unibet
9.00
BetVictor
8.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.3%
@ 1.25+1.2%
Under 2.5
23.7%
@ 3.78-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
888Sport
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.95
BetVictor
3.90
Unibet
3.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.8%
@ 1.68+0.3%
Under 3.5
43.2%
@ 2.17-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.71
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Under
SBO
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.22
1xBet
2.21
Unibet
2.20
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.9%
@ 1.48+1.1%
No
36.1%
@ 2.49-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.48
No
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.55
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.5%@ 8.79+3.3%
3-1
8.2%@ 9.23+3.2%
2-0
7.7%@ 9.90+3.0%
3-0
7.4%@ 10.33+2.9%
1-1
6.5%@ 12.07+2.6%
4-1
5.9%@ 12.32+2.2%
4-0
5.4%@ 13.65+2.0%
2-2
4.7%@ 14.24+1.5%
PSV Eindhoven goals ↓
Groningen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
1.4%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
1
4.7%
6.5%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
2
7.7%
8.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
7.4%
8.2%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
4
5.4%
5.9%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PSV Eindhoven goals (down), columns = Groningen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
PSV Eindhoven is 1.10 points better than Groningen in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
PSV Eindhoven is 1.57 goals better than Groningen in terms of goals scored per game (2.97 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
PSV Eindhoven is 0.02 goals better than Groningen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
PSV Eindhoven is 10.4 percentage points better than Groningen in terms of average possession (61% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
PSV Eindhoven
For 7.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 7.3 · Total 15.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Groningen
For 4.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 0.8 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PSV Eindhoven
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.4
10.9
3.0
3.2
2.9
18.1
17.9
18.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
11.1
12.7
9.5
4.0
5.5
2.5
20.0
21.8
18.2
vs Weaker (38)
11.2
11.0
11.4
2.7
2.5
3.0
17.5
16.6
18.4
% over line
72%
76%
68%
28%
32%
24%
18%
16%
20%
% under line
28%
24%
32%
72%
68%
76%
82%
84%
80%
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.6
9.3
3.3
3.4
3.3
20.9
20.6
21.1
vs Stronger (17)
8.4
9.9
7.1
3.1
3.4
2.9
21.5
20.9
22.0
vs Similar (32)
10.8
11.2
10.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
20.7
20.7
20.6
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
50%
54%
46%
42%
46%
38%
52%
46%
58%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
58%
54%
62%
48%
54%
42%
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.2
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.8
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
Feyenoord
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Heerenveen
10.0
Groningen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.8
Ajax
9.8
Utrecht
9.7
Excelsior
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Cambuur
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
3.9
Feyenoord
3.9
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Twente
3.6
Groningen
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
GO Ahead Eagles
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
27.0
Cambuur
26.5
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.5
Utrecht
23.0
AZ Alkmaar
22.7
Feyenoord
22.7
PEC Zwolle
22.6
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
22.1
Excelsior
21.8
Groningen
20.9
Sparta Rotterdam
20.5
Twente
20.4
Heerenveen
20.2
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.7%
@ 1.47-1.1%
Under 9.5
38.3%
@ 2.48+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.54
Marathonbet
2.50
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.40
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.8%
@ 2.59+3.7%
Under 3.5
61.2%
@ 1.41-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.70
Unibet
2.48
Under
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.35
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
33.4%
Under 21.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
PSV Eindhoven or Draw✓ Hit
87.5%
Avg Implied 87.6% · @ 1.07
Edge
-0.1%
73%
16%
11%
covers PSV Eindhoven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
PSV Eindhoven or Groningen✓ Hit
84.4%
Avg Implied 84.8% · @ 1.11
Edge
-0.4%
73%
16%
11%
covers PSV Eindhoven + Groningen
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Draw or Groningen✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.40
Edge
+0.5%
73%
16%
11%
covers Draw + Groningen
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.62
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.52
BetVictor
3.50
Unibet
3.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
95.0%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Under
5.0%
@ 11.64-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Under
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
13.00
1xBet
12.50
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
80.0%
@ 1.21+3.0%
Under
20.0%
@ 4.03-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.29
BetVictor
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
57.5%
@ 1.71+2.9%
Under
42.5%
@ 2.05-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.14
BetVictor
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
PSV Eindhoven over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
35.1%
@ 2.77+1.4%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.40-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
2.91
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
888Sport
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Unibet
1.40
Groningen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.7%
@ 1.42+6.0%
Under
28.3%
@ 2.71-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.46
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.82
888Sport
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Groningen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 3.01+5.2%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.34-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.23
Marathonbet
3.05
1xBet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.38
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Groningen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 7.81+1.5%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.06-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.40
Superbet
7.60
888Sport
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Groningen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 21.19-0.6%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.01+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to PSV Eindhoven, so a minus line means PSV Eindhoven give that many goals of a start and Groningen receive them. At -1, PSV Eindhoven must win by two or more to land; a one-goal PSV Eindhoven win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (PSV Eindhoven)Actual: PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven -2
33.8%
@ 2.71+0.6%
Draw -2
19.3%
@ 4.25-1.9%
Groningen +2
46.9%
@ 1.98+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.56
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.00
Away
Unibet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
1.91
Handicap -1 (PSV Eindhoven)Actual: PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven -1
53.1%
@ 1.74+1.4%
Draw -1
18.7%
@ 4.21-2.6%
Groningen +1
28.2%
@ 3.34+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.71
Betfair
1.67
Draw
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Away
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.52
Unibet
3.45
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.10
Handicap +1 (PSV Eindhoven)Actual: PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven +1
87.5%
@ 1.08+4.1%
Draw +1
7.6%
@ 8.91-2.5%
Groningen -1
4.9%
@ 13.77-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
Unibet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Handicap +2 (PSV Eindhoven)Actual: PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven +2
95.1%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Draw +2
3.4%
@ 21.00-1.1%
Groningen -2
1.5%
@ 48.00-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
19.00
Away
Betfair
67.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PSV Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.77
1.50
0.81
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.44
0.76
1.54
0.92
1.33
0.58
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.64
0.43
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.62
0.80
0.20
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.45
0.56
0.56
0.77
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.4%
@ 1.15+0.6%
Under 0.5
18.6%
@ 4.83-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.15
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.6%
@ 1.78-7.8%
Under 1.5
55.4%
@ 1.97+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
SBO
2.08
Pinnacle
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
21.3%
@ 3.43-5.8%
Under 2.5
78.7%
@ 1.28+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Unibet
3.35
Superbet
3.35
Under
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
70.7%
@ 1.31-0.1%
Under
29.3%
@ 3.18+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Under
Unibet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.05
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
31.6%
@ 2.48-5.8%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.49+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.62
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.43
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.7%
@ 5.68-6.6%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.11+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
5.70
Unibet
5.60
Betano
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Groningen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.2%
@ 2.41+5.7%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.51-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Under
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Groningen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 8.36-4.0%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.04+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.40
Unibet
8.50
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
8.00
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Groningen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 32.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PSV Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.70
1.69
0.69
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.44
0.60
1.92
0.54
0.92
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.86
0.79
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.00
1.20
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.91
0.67
0.67
0.85
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.7%
@ 1.09-1.9%
Under 0.5
15.3%
@ 7.00+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Under
1xBet
8.40
Superbet
7.20
Betano
6.90
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.6%
@ 1.46-3.2%
Under 1.5
39.4%
@ 2.59+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
888Sport
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.75
Unibet
2.70
1xBet
2.62
Superbet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.5%
@ 2.42-7.9%
Under 2.5
69.5%
@ 1.51+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.36
Under
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.56
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
73.2%
@ 1.19-4.8%
Under
26.8%
@ 4.23+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Superbet
4.15
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
37.4%
@ 1.91-11.2%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.80+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.77
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 3.77-10.0%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.23+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Groningen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.2%
@ 1.98-2.7%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.74+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Groningen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 6.00-4.4%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.09+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Groningen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 15.62-4.4%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
95.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
93.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
91.5%
1.06
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.11
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
87.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
87.5%
1.08
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
86.2%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
84.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
81.4%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
80.0%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
78.7%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
76.3%
1.25
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
888Sport
1.25
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
74.5%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-3.1%
✗ Miss
Home win
73.4%
1.30
Dafabet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.2%
1.26
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.2%
1.19
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-4.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.7%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.46
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.31
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
-0.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
PSV Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergiño Dest67%
Ricardo Pepi50%
Ruben van Bommel50%
Sven Mijnans33%
Noah Fernandez33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Guus Til25%
Ryan Flamingo25%
Armando Obispo0%
Dennis Man0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Kodai Sano0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dennis Man33%
Armando Obispo25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Ivan Perišić0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Sergiño Dest0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergiño Dest67%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Paul Wanner25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Amir Bouhamdi25%
Armando Obispo0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Dennis Man0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ricardo Pepi75%
Guus Til50%
Sergiño Dest33%
Dennis Man33%
Kodai Sano33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Armando Obispo0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Groningen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson75%
Thom van Bergen50%
David van der Werff50%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ondrejka33%
Márk Csinger33%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Travis Hernes25%
David van der Werff25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Thom van Bergen0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thom van Bergen50%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Jorg Schreuders25%
Tygo Land25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Wouter Prins0%
David van der Werff0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thom van Bergen75%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson25%
Tika de Jonge25%
David van der Werff25%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
PSV Eindhoven's squad is €248m more valuable than Groningen's (€280m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
PSV Eindhoven's attack is €93m more valuable than Groningen's (€106m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
PSV Eindhoven's midfield is €54m more valuable than Groningen's (€60m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
PSV Eindhoven's defence is €101m more valuable than Groningen's (€115m vs €14m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur