QPR’s recent win and Cardiff’s draw suggest a competitive encounter, yet the model favours a home victory. The probability of a QPR win stands at 41%, a draw at 23%, and a Cardiff win at 35%. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a high-scoring match, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.4% chance. QPR averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Cardiff scores 1.8 and concedes 1.9 on the road. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9% with a 5% edge, Under 7.5 at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6% with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.0% with a 5% edge, Under 6.5 at 92.1%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.7% with a 2% edge, and Away under 3.5 goals at 89.8%.
Results analysis
The match saw QPR extend their two-game winning run, beating Cardiff 2-1 to secure the home win the model had predicted. The favourite was Home win at 41%, and the model’s call was correct. Every suggested selection performed as forecasted: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7%, Under 7.5 at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.8%, Under 6.5 at 92.1%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.1%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 89.6%. The final score matched the most likely 3-goal outcome, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
QPR win✓ Hit
40.7%
Avg Implied 51.5% · @ 1.83
Edge
-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.98
SBO
1.91
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.84
Superbet
1.82
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.92
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.16
Betano
4.05
Marathonbet
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Cardiff win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.86
Edge
+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.98
10Bet
3.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
QPR
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.47
1.67
1.60
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.40
1.33
2.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.28
1.75
1.33
1.08
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.23
1.88
1.00
2.21
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.60
1.45
1.40
1.00
1.80
1.90
vs Weaker (9)
3.11
0.78
3.00
1.00
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.9%
@ 1.15+7.4%
Under 1.5
11.1%
@ 5.07-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.48
Superbet
5.25
BetVictor
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.8%
@ 1.53+9.4%
Under 2.5
29.2%
@ 2.43-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
SBO
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.62
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.8%
@ 2.33+9.3%
Under 3.5
50.2%
@ 1.59-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.38
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
Under
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.3%
@ 1.51+9.6%
No
28.7%
@ 2.43-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
No
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Betano
2.42
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%@ 7.41+3.4%
2-1 ✓
8.1%@ 7.83+2.4%
1-2
7.6%@ 11.58+3.7%
2-2
7.2%@ 11.25+3.2%
3-1
5.1%@ 11.88+1.3%
2-0
4.6%@ 10.21+0.2%
3-2
4.5%@ 16.53+1.8%
1-3
4.5%@ 25.88+2.7%
QPR goals ↓
Cardiff goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
3.7%
4.0%
2.4%
1.1%
1
4.0%
9.5%
7.6%
4.5%
2.0%
2
4.6%
8.1%
7.2%
4.3%
1.9%
3
2.9%
5.1%
4.5%
2.7%
1.2%
4
1.4%
2.4%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = QPR goals (down), columns = Cardiff goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
QPR is 0.04 points worse than Cardiff in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
QPR is 0.10 goals better than Cardiff in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.23).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
QPR is 0.22 goals worse than Cardiff in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
QPR
For 5.6 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 8.6 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cardiff
For 7.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 10.8 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
QPR
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.2
10.8
3.7
3.8
3.6
20.6
21.2
20.0
vs Stronger (9)
11.4
9.0
13.4
2.9
2.8
3.0
21.4
19.8
22.8
vs Similar (41)
9.7
9.2
10.1
3.9
4.0
3.7
20.4
21.5
19.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
50%
54%
56%
58%
54%
40%
46%
35%
% under line
48%
50%
46%
44%
42%
46%
60%
54%
65%
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.9
10.8
3.4
3.3
3.5
20.5
20.2
20.9
vs Stronger (3)
13.7
14.0
13.0
2.7
2.5
3.0
19.0
18.0
21.0
vs Similar (33)
11.3
11.6
11.1
3.6
3.5
3.6
20.8
20.4
21.2
vs Weaker (14)
9.3
8.9
9.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
20.3
20.4
20.2
% over line
65%
65%
65%
48%
50%
46%
37%
38%
35%
% under line
35%
35%
35%
52%
50%
54%
63%
62%
65%
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
QPR
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Birmingham
21.7
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.4
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.8%
@ 1.49-2.4%
Under 9.5
40.2%
@ 2.45+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
Unibet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.41
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.2%
@ 1.63-2.8%
Under 3.5
45.8%
@ 2.16+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Superbet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
43.5%
@ 1.88-4.5%
Under 21.5
56.5%
@ 1.74+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.70
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
QPR or Draw✓ Hit
64.1%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
-11.3%
41%
23%
36%
covers QPR + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
QPR or Cardiff✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied 76.6% · @ 1.22
Edge
-0.0%
41%
23%
36%
covers QPR + Cardiff
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Draw or Cardiff✗ Miss
59.3%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.95
Edge
+11.3%
41%
23%
36%
covers Draw + Cardiff
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
QPR over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
@ 1.10+0.9%
Under
15.1%
@ 5.79-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
QPR over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.62-1.2%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.20+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
QPR over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.4%
@ 2.94-2.1%
Under
70.6%
@ 1.35+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
Under
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
QPR over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 6.16-2.6%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.09+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
6.15
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Cardiff over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.0%
@ 1.31+12.1%
Under
17.0%
@ 3.19-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.42
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Cardiff over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.9%
@ 2.55+16.2%
Under
47.1%
@ 1.47-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Cardiff over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.2%
@ 6.08+10.9%
Under
73.8%
@ 1.09-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Cardiff over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 14.83+4.0%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.02-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to QPR, so a minus line means QPR give that many goals of a start and Cardiff receive them. At -1, QPR must win by two or more to land; a one-goal QPR win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (QPR)Actual: Cardiff
QPR -2
10.1%
@ 5.92-5.0%
Draw -2
12.4%
@ 5.10-5.2%
Cardiff +2
77.5%
@ 1.33+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Unibet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Away
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Handicap -1 (QPR)Actual: Draw
QPR -1
22.5%
@ 2.94-7.8%
Draw -1
18.2%
@ 3.77-5.5%
Cardiff +1
59.3%
@ 1.94+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Superbet
2.87
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.65
Away
Unibet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Handicap +1 (QPR)Actual: QPR
QPR +1
64.1%
@ 1.24-8.5%
Draw +1
17.0%
@ 5.67+1.1%
Cardiff -1
18.9%
@ 7.82+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.60
Unibet
5.50
Away
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
10Bet
7.50
Handicap +2 (QPR)Actual: QPR
QPR +2
81.1%
@ 1.06-5.4%
Draw +2
10.9%
@ 10.75+2.4%
Cardiff -2
8.0%
@ 18.50+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
QPR
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.53
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.68
0.92
0.58
0.46
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
0.94
0.50
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.80
0.90
0.50
1.00
1.10
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.33
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.3%
@ 1.26-2.8%
Under 0.5
28.7%
@ 3.60+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.75
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 2.25-6.7%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.60+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.40
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.28
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
BetVictor
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 5.07-5.3%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.14+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
William Hil
5.00
Betano
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
QPR over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.5%
@ 1.63-7.8%
Under
50.5%
@ 2.18+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.63
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.15
QPR over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 4.00-8.5%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.20+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.05
Unibet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Under
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
QPR over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 10.08-6.0%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Cardiff over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.5%
@ 2.17-4.4%
Under
61.5%
@ 1.63+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Cardiff over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 6.97-3.4%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.07+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Cardiff over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 18.25-3.8%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
QPR
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.87
1.07
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.60
1.00
2.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.60
0.83
0.75
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.57
0.94
0.50
1.21
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.65
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
2.00
0.44
1.80
0.60
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.15-0.3%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 4.96+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Under
Superbet
5.10
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.8%
@ 1.75-8.6%
Under 1.5
55.2%
@ 2.00+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
10Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.7%
@ 3.29-7.6%
Under 2.5
79.3%
@ 1.30+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
QPR over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.6%
@ 1.42-7.7%
Under
42.4%
@ 2.68+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.67
1xBet
2.65
QPR over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 2.94-9.5%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.35+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Superbet
2.95
1xBet
2.90
Betano
2.87
Under
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
QPR over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 7.13-6.8%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.06+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Cardiff over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.1%
@ 1.81-2.0%
Under
50.9%
@ 1.90+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Cardiff over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 4.99-2.8%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.14+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Cardiff over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 13.25-3.9%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.9%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.14
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.9%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
83.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.06
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.0%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
+12.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.14
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.4%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
-
-
-
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.5%
1.33
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.3%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
73.8%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
10Bet
1.09
-10.9%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.7%
1.27
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-2.8%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
71.3%
1.51
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.8%
1.53
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
SBO
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
70.6%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+2.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
QPR
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Smyth25%
Koki Saito25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Jimmy Dunne20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jake Clarke-Salter50%
Ronnie Edwards40%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Ilias Chair0%
Rumarn Burrell0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tariq Lamptey33%
Harvey Vale25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Ronnie Edwards20%
Amadou Salif Mbengue20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harvey Vale50%
Richard Kone33%
Kwame Poku25%
Alfie Lloyd25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Cardiff
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yousef Salech50%
Jack Moylan33%
Cian Ashford33%
Rubin Colwill20%
Perry Ng17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Perry Ng33%
Alex Robertson33%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Jack Moylan17%
Isaak Davies17%
Joel Colwill17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Joel Bagan0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Yousef Salech0%
Cian Ashford0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cian Ashford33%
Ronan Kpakio25%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Yousef Salech17%
Perry Ng0%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Jack Moylan0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yousef Salech67%
Jack Moylan33%
Perry Ng17%
Cian Ashford17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Rubin Colwill0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
QPR's squad is €42m more valuable than Cardiff's (€71m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
QPR's attack is €13m more valuable than Cardiff's (€29m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
QPR's midfield is €11m more valuable than Cardiff's (€15m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
QPR's defence is €17m more valuable than Cardiff's (€27m vs €10m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston