Rodez vs PAU Result & Analysis

The encounter between Rodez and Pau sits on a razor-thin edge. The model favours a home win, with a 39% chance, a draw 27%, and an away win 34%. The expected goal total is 2.9, but the most likely total is two goals, at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability.

Rodez, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages just over a goal per game (1.07) while conceding a little more (1.14). Pau, on the road, has a slightly better offensive output (1.58) and a comparable defensive record (1.25). Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, each 2-2, hinting at a balanced contest.

The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals (79.9%), Under 5.5 cards (71.0%), Over 2.5 cards (82.1%), Over 19.5 fouls (86.6%) and Over 21.5 fouls (75.1%). Each is presented with its probability and the outcome indicated as hit or miss.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Rodez, failed to secure the win they were tipped for. The final score was 1-2, giving PAU the away victory. The model had called a home win with a 39% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls at 86.6% missed, Over 2.5 cards at 82.1% hit, Over 1.5 at 79.9% hit, Over 21.5 fouls at 75.1% missed, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.0% hit. Both teams were coming off draws, with Rodez’s recent form noted as a draw and PAU’s also a draw, setting the stage for the surprising result.