Santa Clara has been struggling at home, particularly in their last two matches, where they suffered consecutive defeats, including a 0-1 loss to FC Porto. Nacional, on the other hand, has been on a decent run, with a win in their last outing against Guimaraes. Considering the home side's defensive solidity, with an average of 0 goals conceded at home, while Nacional's away form has seen them concede an average of 1.56 goals, a low-scoring match is anticipated.
The model predicts a 44% chance of a home win, a 31% draw, and a 25% chance of an away win. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.4%. Nacional's away scoring average is 0.56 goals, while Santa Clara's home scoring average is 1.67 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, with a suggested pick of Over 21.5 fouls at 93.2%, Over 3.5 cards at 82.4%, and Under 3.5 at 81.6% with a 6% edge. The expected total goals is 2.2, and the most likely total goals is 2. The home side has a 44% chance of winning, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of an away win.
Results analysis
The draw between Santa Clara and Nacional has extended the home team's run of consecutive draws. Santa Clara's recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with a last five match sequence of DLLWD, coming off a draw, and having previously drawn with Nacional 2-2. In contrast, Nacional's away form has been poor, with a last five sequence of DWLLW, having also drawn with Santa Clara 2-2. The final score was 2-2, resulting in a draw, which was the actual outcome. The pre-match favourite was the home win, with a probability of 45%. However, the model's selection, the home win, was incorrect. The model's selection for over 21.5 fouls hit, with a probability of 93.2%, as did the selection for over 3.5 cards, with a probability of 82.4%. The selection for under 3.5 hit, with a probability of 80.8%, but the selection for the most likely total goals, 2, missed, with a probability of 28%.
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đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Santa Clara winâ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied 52.0% · @ 1.81
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.86
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
10Bet
1.82
Drawâ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.24
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.35
Pinnacle
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Nacional winâ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 4.96
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.37
Dafabet
5.33
Betano
5.30
Bet365
5.25
1xBet
5.14
✠2. Goal Analysis
Santa Clara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.17
1.27
1.00
0.87
1.33
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.75
1.20
1.60
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.95
1.30
0.70
0.92
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.33
1.50
1.07
1.00
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.38
0.83
1.00
0.71
1.71
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.31
2.00
1.12
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.48+4.1%
Under 1.5
32.8%
@ 2.53-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
BetVictor
1.48
Under
Superbet
2.67
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.3%
@ 2.48+1.3%
Under 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.52-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
10Bet
2.50
Under
SBO
1.58
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.53
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.2%
@ 4.81-0.3%
Under 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.16+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.7%
@ 2.20+3.5%
No
54.3%
@ 1.61-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
2.25
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
No
William Hil
1.65
Betfair
1.65
888Sport
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.09+6.8%
1-0
12.7%@ 5.01+3.7%
0-0
11.8%@ 6.55+4.9%
2-0
9.3%@ 7.05+2.9%
2-1
8.6%@ 8.31+3.2%
0-1
8.4%@ 9.40+3.6%
1-2
6.0%@ 15.31+3.0%
0-2
4.5%@ 22.40+2.5%
Santa Clara goals ↓
Nacional goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.4%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.3%
8.6%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.1%
3.8%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Santa Clara goals (down), columns = Nacional goals (across).
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đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Santa Clara is 0.06 points better than Nacional in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.00).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Santa Clara is 0.15 goals worse than Nacional in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.09).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Santa Clara is 0.12 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.32).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Santa Clara is 2.3 percentage points better than Nacional in terms of average possession (48% vs 46%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïž 7. Handicap
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Santa Clara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.41
0.50
0.20
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (13)
0.08
0.54
0.00
0.33
0.14
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.62
0.75
0.62
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Santa Clara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.80
0.53
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.55
0.80
0.50
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.07
0.57
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.85
0.83
0.67
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.69
1.25
0.50
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+0.3%
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Santa Clara's squad is €7m more valuable than Nacional's (€27m vs €20m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Santa Clara's attack is €3m more valuable than Nacional's (€9m vs €6m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Santa Clara and Nacional have a similar midfield value (both €6m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Santa Clara's defence is €4m more valuable than Nacional's (€12m vs €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia