Juventus are the clear favorites, with the model picking an away win and assigning a 53% chance to that outcome, while home and draw stand at 20% and 27% respectively. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.8% probability. Sassuolo, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.25 conceded, whereas Juventus, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.67 scored and 0.44 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5% with a 2% edge), Under 5.5 (95.6% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 goals (93.0% with a 1% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (92.3% with a 6% edge), Away +2 handicap (92.3%), and Under 4.5 (88.8% with a 5% edge). Sassuolo has just returned from a win after a run of losses, while Juventus are on a two-game winning streak.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sassuolo win
19.4%
Avg Implied 17.0% · @ 5.53
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.93
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Dafabet
5.60
Pinnacle
5.50
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.92
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.14
Marathonbet
4.05
Pinnacle
4.04
Betfair
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
Juventus win
54.1%
Avg Implied 59.0% · @ 1.60
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sassuolo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.37
1.47
1.40
1.07
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.70
1.00
2.25
1.17
1.33
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.20
1.64
1.09
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juventus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.83
2.00
0.67
1.53
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.80
1.20
2.50
0.25
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
0.65
1.82
0.82
1.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.2%
@ 1.27+0.3%
Under 1.5
25.8%
@ 3.60-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Under
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.67
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.55
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.9%
@ 1.88-2.8%
Under 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.94+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.1%
@ 3.13-3.9%
Under 3.5
73.9%
@ 1.35+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.16
Unibet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
49.9%
@ 1.88+0.3%
No
50.1%
@ 1.85-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
No
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 7.07+6.4%
0-1
11.4%@ 6.27+4.3%
0-2
10.5%@ 6.94+4.1%
1-2
9.6%@ 7.65+3.8%
0-0
8.7%@ 10.54+4.5%
0-3
5.9%@ 10.95+1.8%
1-0
5.7%@ 12.86+2.3%
1-3
5.4%@ 11.75+1.6%
Sassuolo goals ↓
Juventus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
11%
11%
5.9%
2.5%
1
5.7%
13%
9.6%
5.4%
2.2%
2
3.1%
5.3%
4.4%
2.5%
1.0%
3
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sassuolo goals (down), columns = Juventus goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Sassuolo is 0.53 points worse than Juventus in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
Sassuolo is 0.39 goals worse than Juventus in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Sassuolo is 0.42 goals worse than Juventus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Sassuolo is 11.4 percentage points worse than Juventus in terms of average possession (46% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sassuolo
For 3.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Juventus
For 7.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 10.6 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sassuolo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.9
8.6
4.1
4.2
4.0
24.5
24.6
24.4
vs Stronger (13)
8.8
8.8
8.9
3.5
4.5
2.6
22.8
24.5
21.3
vs Similar (32)
8.8
9.1
8.5
4.3
4.1
4.6
25.5
25.1
26.0
vs Weaker (5)
8.4
8.0
8.7
3.8
3.5
4.0
22.6
21.0
23.7
% over line
49%
58%
40%
62%
58%
65%
65%
67%
64%
% under line
51%
42%
60%
38%
42%
35%
35%
33%
36%
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juventus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.4
3.5
3.4
3.7
23.5
22.4
24.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.4
9.4
9.2
3.7
3.6
3.8
24.1
24.9
23.2
vs Weaker (32)
9.8
10.3
9.4
3.4
3.2
3.6
23.2
20.9
25.2
% over line
43%
46%
40%
58%
52%
64%
65%
58%
72%
% under line
57%
54%
60%
42%
48%
36%
35%
42%
28%
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.5%
@ 1.86-8.8%
Under 9.5
59.5%
@ 1.81+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.86
Under
Unibet
1.81
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 3.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.0%
Under 21.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sassuolo or Draw
48.8%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.32
Edge
+8.1%
19%
27%
54%
covers Sassuolo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Sassuolo or Juventus
72.4%
Avg Implied 76.5% · @ 1.23
Edge
-4.1%
19%
27%
54%
covers Sassuolo + Juventus
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Draw or Juventus
78.8%
Avg Implied 82.8% · @ 1.14
Edge
-4.0%
19%
27%
54%
covers Draw + Juventus
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sassuolo over/under 0.5
Over
60.9%
@ 1.61+3.3%
Under
39.1%
@ 2.19-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Sassuolo over/under 1.5
Over
24.2%
@ 4.04+1.1%
Under
75.8%
@ 1.21-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.19
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Sassuolo over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
@ 12.25-0.8%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
12.50
Marathonbet
12.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Sassuolo over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
@ 27.50-2.0%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Juventus over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
@ 1.13-2.6%
Under
20.5%
@ 5.17+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Juventus over/under 1.5
Over
47.0%
@ 1.71-7.8%
Under
53.0%
@ 2.07+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.05
Juventus over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
@ 3.18-8.1%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.32+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.29
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.22
Marathonbet
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Juventus over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
@ 6.72-6.2%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.08+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.80
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sassuolo, so a minus line means Sassuolo give that many goals of a start and Juventus receive them. At -1, Sassuolo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sassuolo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sassuolo)
Sassuolo -2
2.0%
@ 43.50-0.2%
Draw -2
5.7%
@ 16.00-0.2%
Juventus +2
92.3%
@ 1.02+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
41.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Handicap -1 (Sassuolo)
Sassuolo -1
7.7%
@ 11.84+0.2%
Draw -1
13.5%
@ 6.23-0.7%
Juventus +1
78.8%
@ 1.13+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
6.70
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.10
Handicap +1 (Sassuolo)
Sassuolo +1
48.8%
@ 2.31+9.9%
Draw +1
23.6%
@ 3.45-2.4%
Juventus -1
27.6%
@ 2.55-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.39
10Bet
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
3.30
Away
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.59
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Handicap +2 (Sassuolo)
Sassuolo +2
72.4%
@ 1.44+10.0%
Draw +2
16.1%
@ 4.52-3.8%
Juventus -2
11.5%
@ 5.06-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sassuolo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.87
0.80
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.65
1.00
0.82
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juventus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.30
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.25
0.64
0.45
0.78
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.7%
@ 1.36+0.9%
Under 0.5
30.3%
@ 3.01-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
William Hil
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.96
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.0%
@ 2.70-2.5%
Under 1.5
68.0%
@ 1.42+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.79
Marathonbet
2.79
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 6.71-3.0%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.09+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
1xBet
6.85
William Hil
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sassuolo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.2%
@ 2.85+5.6%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.38-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Marathonbet
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Sassuolo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.9%
@ 10.25-2.2%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Sassuolo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.6%
@ 1.67-1.2%
Under
45.4%
@ 2.10+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Juventus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.2%
@ 4.29-7.4%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.18+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.25
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Juventus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.6%
@ 9.75-4.9%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sassuolo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
0.64
0.27
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juventus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.33
0.33
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.90
1.75
0.25
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.40
1.18
0.36
0.89
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.6%
@ 1.23+1.2%
Under 0.5
22.4%
@ 3.97-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.8%
@ 2.05-1.7%
Under 1.5
56.2%
@ 1.72+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
1xBet
2.09
Betano
2.05
Under
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.68
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.6%
@ 4.35-4.0%
Under 2.5
82.4%
@ 1.19+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sassuolo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.0%
@ 2.31+5.9%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.55-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Under
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.52
Sassuolo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.7%
@ 7.97+1.1%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.05-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.10
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Sassuolo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
@ 13.00-4.7%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Juventus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.8%
@ 1.46-2.1%
Under
38.2%
@ 2.58+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Juventus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.8%
@ 3.10-8.1%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.32+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Juventus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.1%
@ 7.60-5.0%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.05+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Under 5.5
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+6.2%
Away +2 handicap
92.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+0.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.09
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
+3.0%
Under 4.5
88.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
+4.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
-1.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+7.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
+4.0%
Over 19.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.8%
1.30
Unibet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+10.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-2.6%
Draw or Away
78.8%
1.14
1xBet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-4.0%
Away +1 handicap
78.8%
1.13
Marathonbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.10
+0.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
+8.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.2%
1.32
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
-
+8.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.6%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+1.2%
Home under 1.5 goals
75.8%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
-1.1%
Over 1.5
74.2%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
+0.3%
Under 3.5
73.9%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.35
+3.9%
Over 2.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.4%
1.23
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
-4.1%
Home +2 handicap
72.4%
1.44
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
+10.0%
Under 10.5 corners
71.3%
1.50
Unibet
1.50
-
-
-
-
+10.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sassuolo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Volpato50%
C. Odenthal33%
Vasilije Adžić33%
Luca Lipani33%
Benjamín Domínguez25%
Arijanet Murić0%
N. Matić0%
Armand Laurienté0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
Kieron Bowie0%
Josh Doig0%
F. Leysen0%
D. Bakola0%
Simone Cinquegrano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Matić33%
Armand Laurienté25%
C. Volpato25%
Arijanet Murić0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
Kieron Bowie0%
C. Odenthal0%
Josh Doig0%
F. Leysen0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
Luca Lipani0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
D. Bakola0%
Simone Cinquegrano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Doig33%
F. Leysen33%
Vasilije Adžić33%
Simone Cinquegrano33%
D. Bakola25%
Arijanet Murić0%
N. Matić0%
Armand Laurienté0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
Kieron Bowie0%
C. Odenthal0%
C. Volpato0%
Luca Lipani0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Armand Laurienté75%
Kieron Bowie25%
Benjamín Domínguez25%
Arijanet Murić0%
N. Matić0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
C. Odenthal0%
Josh Doig0%
F. Leysen0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
C. Volpato0%
Luca Lipani0%
D. Bakola0%
Simone Cinquegrano0%
Juventus · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dušan Vlahović35%
Jérémie Boga24%
Kenan Yıldız21%
Jonathan David20%
Weston McKennie19%
Federico Gatti14%
Filip Kostić13%
Juan Cabal11%
Bremer10%
Francisco Conceição10%
Khéphren Thuram9%
Manuel Locatelli6%
Andrea Cambiaso6%
Loïs Openda6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Lloyd Kelly4%
Pierre Kalulu4%
Fabio Miretti3%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Manuel Locatelli23%
Juan Cabal21%
Bremer16%
Lloyd Kelly15%
Weston McKennie12%
Teun Koopmeiners11%
Andrea Cambiaso11%
Francisco Conceição10%
Kenan Yıldız9%
João Mário8%
Federico Gatti7%
Fabio Miretti6%
Pierre Kalulu6%
Jérémie Boga6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Khéphren Thuram4%
Filip Kostić4%
Edon Zhegrova4%
Michele Di Gregorio3%
Loïs Openda0%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Jonathan David0%
Dušan Vlahović0%
Emil Holm0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kenan Yıldız17%
Francisco Conceição12%
Jonathan David11%
Andrea Cambiaso11%
Weston McKennie10%
Pierre Kalulu10%
Fabio Miretti10%
Khéphren Thuram9%
Dušan Vlahović9%
João Mário8%
Bremer6%
Filip Kostić4%
Lloyd Kelly4%
Manuel Locatelli4%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Loïs Openda0%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Jérémie Boga0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
Juan Cabal0%
Federico Gatti0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dušan Vlahović26%
Kenan Yıldız21%
Jérémie Boga18%
Francisco Conceição14%
Khéphren Thuram11%
Jonathan David11%
Weston McKennie8%
Federico Gatti7%
Bremer6%
Fabio Miretti6%
Manuel Locatelli6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Loïs Openda3%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Andrea Cambiaso2%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Filip Kostić0%
Lloyd Kelly0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
Juan Cabal0%
Pierre Kalulu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Sassuolo's squad is €374m less valuable than Juventus's (€194m vs €569m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Sassuolo's attack is €150m less valuable than Juventus's (€90m vs €240m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Sassuolo's midfield is €87m less valuable than Juventus's (€53m vs €140m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Sassuolo's defence is €137m less valuable than Juventus's (€52m vs €189m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina