PythiaFootballBETA
Sassuolo's recent form has been concerning, with three straight defeats, including a 0-1 loss to Parma. However, their home form against similar opponents is respectable, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. Lecce, on the other hand, has been on a two-game winning run, but their away form against similar opponents is less impressive, averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded.
The model predicts a 46% chance of a home win, 31% for a draw, and 23% for an away win. The model's selection is a home win. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.1%.
The model also suggests selecting Under 3.5 goals, with an 83.1% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 77.6% probability. Sassuolo's home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 23%.
Sassuolo's recent struggles continued as they fell to Lecce, a team on a 2-game winning run, in a 2-3 away win. The win extends Lecce's run of form, while Sassuolo's recent woes, including 3 straight defeats, are now 4 in total. The model's selection, a Home win, was wrong, as the pre-match favourite failed to come through with a 46% probability of success. The model's call was incorrect, as Lecce pulled off the upset. The model also suggested Under 3.5 goals, which missed, and Over 21.5 fouls, which also missed, with probabilities of 83.1% and 77.6% respectively. The actual result was a 2-3 scoreline.
Sassuolo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.13 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 1.00 | 1.64 | 0.80 | 2.00 | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.33 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Lecce| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.27 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.31 | 1.50 | 0.12 | 1.62 | 0.50 | 1.38 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Lecce goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 13% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
SassuoloLecceSassuolo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 24.9 | 24.8 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 22.7 | 24.7 | 20.7 |
| vs Similar (25) | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 26.0 | 25.0 | 27.1 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 7.8 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 25.4 | 24.6 | 26.0 |
| % over line | 48% | 56% | 40% | 62% | 56% | 68% | 70% | 72% | 68% |
| % under line | 52% | 44% | 60% | 38% | 44% | 32% | 30% | 28% | 32% |
Lecce| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 25.8 | 26.3 | 25.4 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 10.0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 22.8 | 23.4 | 22.2 |
| vs Similar (24) | 10.2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 29.2 | 29.5 | 28.8 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 58% | 44% | 72% | 50% | 52% | 48% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| % under line | 42% | 56% | 28% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 74.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/04/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 06/10/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/02/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/08/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/07/20 | H | 4-2 | |
| 03/11/19 | A | 2-2 |
Sassuolo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Lecce| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Inter | 38 | 87 | 71% | 2.3 | 89 | 35 | +54 | 3.3 | 84% | 55% | 37% | 9.2 | 55% | 3.5 | 38% | 24.2 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 60% |
| 2 |  Napoli | 38 | 76 | 61% | 2.0 | 58 | 36 | +22 | 2.5 | 68% | 53% | 26% | 8.2 | 26% | 3.5 | 42% | 23.4 | 61% | 458 | 214 | 90 | 153 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 38 | 73 | 61% | 1.9 | 59 | 31 | +28 | 2.4 | 66% | 37% | 18% | 8.6 | 34% | 4.1 | 66% | 27.8 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 56% |
| 4 |  Como | 38 | 71 | 53% | 1.9 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 24% | 7.7 | 24% | 4.6 | 68% | 25.9 | 79% | 397 | 236 | 79 | 81 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 62% |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 38 | 70 | 53% | 1.8 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 2.3 | 66% | 45% | 18% | 8.6 | 42% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.9 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 6 |  Juventus | 38 | 69 | 50% | 1.8 | 61 | 34 | +27 | 2.5 | 74% | 39% | 24% | 9.2 | 37% | 3.7 | 59% | 22.3 | 61% | 480 | 210 | 124 | 146 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 58% |
| 7 |  Atalanta | 38 | 59 | 39% | 1.6 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 2.3 | 74% | 37% | 18% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.4 | 47% | 22.1 | 53% | 452 | 163 | 141 | 148 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 55% |
| 8 |  Bologna | 38 | 56 | 42% | 1.5 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 26% | 8.7 | 34% | 4.1 | 51% | 27.8 | 89% | 279 | 136 | 40 | 103 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 9 |  Lazio | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 2.1 | 66% | 32% | 16% | 7.9 | 29% | 4.9 | 76% | 25.1 | 68% | 236 | 78 | 69 | 88 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 10 |  Udinese | 38 | 50 | 37% | 1.3 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 2.4 | 68% | 45% | 21% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.7 | 53% | 25.1 | 79% | 180 | 41 | 64 | 76 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 38 | 49 | 37% | 1.3 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 2.5 | 74% | 55% | 21% | 8.7 | 50% | 4.5 | 65% | 24.9 | 68% | 212 | 78 | 57 | 77 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 12 |  Parma | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 1.9 | 58% | 29% | 16% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.9 | 61% | 24.3 | 79% | 149 | 36 | 47 | 66 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 13 |  Torino | 38 | 45 | 32% | 1.2 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 2.8 | 74% | 63% | 29% | 8.5 | 42% | 3.5 | 44% | 24.5 | 68% | 124 | 40 | 54 | 31 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 44% |
| 14 |  Cagliari | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 2.4 | 76% | 50% | 18% | 8.9 | 37% | 4.1 | 58% | 28.6 | 89% | 196 | 62 | 37 | 97 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 38 | 42 | 24% | 1.1 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 2.4 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 9.0 | 47% | 4.8 | 78% | 28.1 | 92% | 203 | 55 | 64 | 84 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 16 |  Genoa | 38 | 41 | 26% | 1.1 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 2.4 | 76% | 53% | 16% | 8.6 | 37% | 4.5 | 76% | 27.4 | 87% | 174 | 70 | 30 | 74 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 17 | Lecce | 38 | 38 | 26% | 1.0 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 2.1 | 61% | 37% | 13% | 9.6 | 58% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.7 | 74% | 118 | 66 | 16 | 36 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 38 | 34 | 21% | 0.9 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 2.3 | 68% | 45% | 24% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 46% | 26.4 | 84% | 76 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 38 | 21 | 8% | 0.6 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 2.3 | 68% | 50% | 21% | 9.0 | 42% | 4.1 | 54% | 25.3 | 74% | 65 | 18 | 18 | 29 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 40% |
| 20 |  Pisa | 38 | 18 | 5% | 0.5 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 2.6 | 66% | 53% | 32% | 8.4 | 37% | 3.8 | 53% | 24.7 | 79% | 104 | 40 | 42 | 22 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 40% |