Segesta Sisak are favoured to win at home, a 49% chance that outweighs the 30% draw and 22% away win probabilities. The model projects an average of 2.3 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8% chance. Segesta’s home form shows they average three goals scored and one conceded against similar opposition, while Dugopolje’s away record is less prolific, with 0.87 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The suggested selections include an Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (97.0%) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.4%). Segesta’s recent draw against Kustosija and Dugopolje’s 2-2 draw with Karlovac 1919 set the tone for a tight contest where the home side’s attacking edge is expected to prevail.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Segesta Sisak win
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje win
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Segesta Sisak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dugopolje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.17
1.67
1.13
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.28
1.17
1.71
1.14
0.87
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Segesta Sisak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.4%
No
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
13.1%
0-0
11.3%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.8%
Segesta Sisak goals ↓
Dugopolje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.6%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.3%
2
10%
8.9%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.8%
4.2%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Segesta Sisak goals (down), columns = Dugopolje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Segesta Sisak is 0.26 points worse than Dugopolje in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Segesta Sisak is 0.04 goals worse than Dugopolje in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Segesta Sisak is 0.02 goals worse than Dugopolje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Segesta Sisak or Draw
78.1%
Avg Implied -
49%
30%
22%
covers Segesta Sisak + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Segesta Sisak or Dugopolje
70.4%
Avg Implied -
49%
30%
22%
covers Segesta Sisak + Dugopolje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dugopolje
51.5%
Avg Implied -
49%
30%
22%
covers Draw + Dugopolje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Segesta Sisak over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Segesta Sisak over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Segesta Sisak over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Segesta Sisak over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Segesta Sisak, so a minus line means Segesta Sisak give that many goals of a start and Dugopolje receive them. At -1, Segesta Sisak must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Segesta Sisak win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Segesta Sisak)
Segesta Sisak -2
9.5%
Draw -2
15.1%
Dugopolje +2
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Segesta Sisak)
Segesta Sisak -1
24.5%
Draw -1
24.0%
Dugopolje +1
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Segesta Sisak)
Segesta Sisak +1
78.1%
Draw +1
14.3%
Dugopolje -1
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Segesta Sisak)
Segesta Sisak +2
92.4%
Draw +2
5.7%
Dugopolje -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Segesta Sisak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dugopolje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.93
0.60
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.72
0.69
0.93
0.64
0.53
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Segesta Sisak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.0%
Under 0.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.9%
Under 1.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.0%
Under 2.5
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Segesta Sisak over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Segesta Sisak over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Segesta Sisak over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Segesta Sisak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dugopolje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.48
0.79
0.50
0.33
0.47
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Segesta Sisak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.8%
Under 0.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.3%
Under 1.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.3%
Under 2.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Segesta Sisak over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Segesta Sisak over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Segesta Sisak over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →