PythiaFootballBETA
The encounter between Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 36%. The probabilities for a home win, a draw and an away win are 35%, 29% and 36% respectively, so the match is finely balanced. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.9% chance, even though the final result will be a 0-0 draw.
Septemvri Sofia, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded. Botev Vratsa, on the road against a comparable side, averages 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. The recent form of Septemvri Sofia, coming off a 1-1 draw with Slavia Sofia, and Botev Vratsa, coming off a 0-2 defeat to Arda Kardzhali, adds to the uncertainty.
The model’s selections include Under 11.5 corners (81.7%), Under 25.5 fouls (79.9%), Under 5.5 cards (79.3%), Over 2.5 cards (75.4%), Under 3.5 goals (74.5%), Over 1.5 goals (73.7%) and Under 10.5 corners (72.4%). Each selection is presented with its probability, and no additional commentary is attached to any.
The pre-match favourite, Botev Vratsa, failed to deliver as the match ended in a 0-0 draw, a result that surprised many. The model had picked an away win with a 36% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-0 matched the most likely score of 1-1 in the model’s distribution, yet the actual outcome was a stalemate. The model’s selections performed variably: Under 11.5 corners hit at 81.7%, Under 25.5 fouls missed at 79.9%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 79.3%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 75.4%, Under 3.5 hit at 74.5%, Over 1.5 missed at 73.7%, and Under 10.5 corners hit at 72.4%. The game reflected the home side’s recent draw-heavy run and the away side’s recent defeat, leaving both teams unchanged in their form narratives.
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 2.03 | 1.07 | 2.00 | 0.81 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.78 | 3.11 | 1.00 | 2.20 | 0.50 | 4.25 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.95 | 1.65 | 1.11 | 1.89 | 0.82 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
Botev Vratsa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.70 | 1.10 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Botev Vratsa goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 14% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Septemvri SofiaBotev VratsaSeptemvri Sofia| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 21.7 | 21.0 | 22.3 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 9.1 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 21.3 | 21.6 | 21.0 |
| vs Similar (35) | 8.8 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 21.9 | 20.6 | 22.7 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 44% | 50% | 40% | 34% | 24% | 44% | 56% | 42% | 67% |
| % under line | 56% | 50% | 60% | 66% | 76% | 56% | 44% | 58% | 33% |
Botev Vratsa| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 23.0 | 23.3 | 22.7 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 9.8 | 6.8 | 12.2 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 20.4 | 24.5 | 17.2 |
| vs Similar (32) | 9.1 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 24.3 | 22.8 | 25.8 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 44% | 31% | 57% | 36% | 40% | 32% | 59% | 46% | 71% |
| % under line | 56% | 69% | 43% | 64% | 60% | 68% | 41% | 54% | 29% |
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.70 | 0.43 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.45 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.78 | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Botev Vratsa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+50pp vs league) | |||||
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.64 | 1.21 | 0.38 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 2.11 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.25 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.50 | 1.05 | 0.56 | 1.11 | 0.45 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Botev Vratsa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 79.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 79.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 74.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 08/02/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 19/08/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 05/06/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 14/11/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/07/22 | H | 1-1 |
Septemvri Sofia| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 03/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/02/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 15/12/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 07/12/25 | A | 0-0 |
Botev Vratsa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/02/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/02/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 14/12/25 | A | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Levski Sofia | 36 | 81 | 69% | 2.2 | 71 | 25 | +46 | 2.7 | 67% | 53% | 31% | 9.4 | 48% | 4.1 | 48% | 23.5 | 62% | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 65% |
| 2 |  Ludogorets | 37 | 68 | 51% | 1.8 | 61 | 25 | +36 | 2.3 | 65% | 43% | 16% | 9.7 | 43% | 4.7 | 57% | 21.3 | 43% | 46 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 64% |
| 3 |  CSKA 1948 | 36 | 67 | 56% | 1.9 | 54 | 35 | +19 | 2.5 | 64% | 50% | 22% | 9.3 | 48% | 4.5 | 65% | 21.1 | 43% | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 4 |  CSKA Sofia | 36 | 63 | 50% | 1.8 | 47 | 30 | +17 | 2.1 | 64% | 31% | 19% | 9.2 | 55% | 5.1 | 68% | 24.2 | 73% | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 5 |  Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 36 | 56 | 39% | 1.6 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 2.0 | 67% | 31% | 14% | 7.8 | 29% | 5.0 | 86% | 24.7 | 71% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 6 |  Arda Kardzhali | 36 | 54 | 42% | 1.5 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 2.1 | 61% | 36% | 19% | 8.7 | 35% | 4.8 | 78% | 24.7 | 74% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 7 |  Cherno More Varna | 36 | 54 | 39% | 1.5 | 40 | 34 | +6 | 2.1 | 61% | 39% | 22% | 8.9 | 42% | 4.1 | 63% | 24.6 | 84% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 8 | Botev Vratsa | 37 | 53 | 35% | 1.4 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 1.8 | 57% | 32% | 14% | 8.5 | 36% | 4.5 | 68% | 23.0 | 59% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 47% |
| 9 |  Lokomotiv Sofia | 37 | 47 | 30% | 1.3 | 51 | 48 | +3 | 2.7 | 76% | 51% | 32% | 9.6 | 42% | 4.2 | 54% | 23.0 | 58% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 10 |  Slavia Sofia | 37 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 2.3 | 81% | 43% | 16% | 11.5 | 73% | 3.9 | 45% | 21.9 | 50% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 11 |  Botev Plovdiv | 35 | 43 | 34% | 1.2 | 45 | 45 | +0 | 2.6 | 77% | 57% | 20% | 9.4 | 48% | 4.6 | 61% | 22.9 | 74% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 38 | 39 | 26% | 1.0 | 34 | 65 | -31 | 2.6 | 74% | 50% | 24% | 8.3 | 30% | 5.0 | 70% | 22.1 | 57% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 13 |  Spartak Varna | 37 | 37 | 22% | 1.0 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 2.5 | 76% | 49% | 24% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.9 | 71% | 22.8 | 58% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 40% |
| 14 |  Beroe | 37 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 2.2 | 59% | 49% | 22% | 10.9 | 67% | 4.8 | 79% | 22.0 | 54% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 15 |  Dobrudzha | 37 | 31 | 22% | 0.8 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 2.2 | 70% | 41% | 11% | 9.2 | 38% | 5.4 | 75% | 25.4 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 16 |  Montana | 37 | 23 | 11% | 0.6 | 21 | 55 | -34 | 2.1 | 57% | 38% | 16% | 9.2 | 46% | 4.1 | 58% | 21.7 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 17 |  Yantra 2019 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |