This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.67
1.19
0.50
1.21
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.15
0.80
1.00
0.60
1.30
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.40
1.50
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.9%
Under 1.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.6%
Under 2.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.6%
Under 3.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.8%
No
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
14.7%
0-0
13.3%
0-1
12.4%
1-0
10.3%
0-2
7.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
5.7%
Shelbourne goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
12%
7.9%
3.0%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
2.9%
0.8%
2
5.7%
6.5%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.9%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shelbourne goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
Derry City
1.81
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Shelbourne
1.67
Dundalk
1.61
Bohemians
1.61
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
1.03
Waterford
1.00
Cork City
0.86
UCD
0.31
Shelbourne is 0.14 points worse than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.81).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.86
Dundalk
1.64
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.58
Bohemians
1.47
Shelbourne
1.22
Drogheda United
1.11
Waterford
1.00
Sligo Rovers
1.00
Cork City
0.97
UCD
0.53
Shelbourne is 0.36 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.58).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derry City
0.67
Shelbourne
0.75
Shamrock Rovers
0.75
Waterford
1.00
Bohemians
1.11
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Dundalk
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.50
Cork City
1.76
UCD
2.67
Shelbourne is 0.08 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 0.67).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Bohemians
57%
Dundalk
56%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
Sligo Rovers
49%
St Patrick's Athl.
46%
Cork City
45%
Drogheda United
40%
UCD
38%
Shelbourne is 2.2 percentage points worse than Derry City in terms of average possession (53% vs 56%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Shelbourne
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.0 · Against 18.0 · Total 37.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 7.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 11.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 6.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shelbourne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
37.0
-
37.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
5.0
-
5.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
37.0
-
37.0
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
2%
0%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
100%
-
100%
98%
100%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.5
11.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
25.5
27.0
24.0
vs Stronger (2)
5.0
5.0
-
3.0
6.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
11.0
-
11.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
24.0
-
24.0
vs Weaker (15)
12.0
12.0
-
0.3
0.6
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
67%
50%
100%
6%
8%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
33%
50%
0%
94%
92%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cork City
12.0
Drogheda United
11.0
Sligo Rovers
10.8
Bohemians
10.0
Shamrock Rovers
9.6
Derry City
9.3
St Patrick's Athl.
8.7
Dundalk
8.5
Shelbourne
5.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shelbourne
8.0
St Patrick's Athl.
8.0
Bohemians
7.0
Dundalk
6.5
Derry City
6.0
Shamrock Rovers
6.0
Cork City
5.0
Sligo Rovers
4.8
Drogheda United
4.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shelbourne
37.0
St Patrick's Athl.
32.5
Drogheda United
29.0
Dundalk
28.5
Cork City
27.0
Derry City
25.5
Bohemians
25.0
Shamrock Rovers
23.5
Sligo Rovers
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
87.1%
Under 3.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.8%
Under 21.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shelbourne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.37
0.56
0.44
0.50
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.38
0.56
0.44
0.54
0.31
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.38
0.25
0.64
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.35
0.20
0.30
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.17
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shelbourne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.81
0.50
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.62
0.66
0.81
0.50
0.38
0.85
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.81
0.25
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.45
0.80
0.30
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.20
0.83
0.17
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 4.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Shelbourne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sean Boyd60%
Jack Moylan38%
Euclides Cabral20%
Will Jarvis17%
Paddy Barrett14%
Harry Wood14%
John Ross Wilson10%
Mark Coyle7%
Jonathan Lunney6%
Gavin Molloy6%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Luke Byrne0%
Shane Farrell0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Evan Caffrey0%
Brian McManus0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Coyle47%
Sean Boyd40%
Shane Griffin38%
Andrew Quinn33%
Luke Byrne25%
Brian McManus25%
Paddy Barrett21%
Euclides Cabral20%
John Ross Wilson20%
Kameron Ledwidge14%
Gavin Molloy12%
Will Jarvis8%
Tyreke Wilson7%
Harry Wood7%
Conor Kearns7%
Shane Farrell7%
Jonathan Lunney6%
Jack Moylan6%
Evan Caffrey0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Harry Wood36%
Shane Farrell13%
John Ross Wilson10%
Jad Hakiki10%
Tyreke Wilson7%
Jonathan Lunney6%
Jack Moylan6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Euclides Cabral0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Sean Boyd0%
Mark Coyle0%
Luke Byrne0%
Paddy Barrett0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Brian McManus0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Will Jarvis0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Wood29%
Jack Moylan25%
Sean Boyd20%
Jad Hakiki10%
Paddy Barrett7%
Jonathan Lunney6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Euclides Cabral0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Mark Coyle0%
Luke Byrne0%
John Ross Wilson0%
Shane Farrell0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Brian McManus0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Will Jarvis0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamie McGonigle44%
William Patching42%
Michael Duffy30%
Danny Mullen25%
Brandon Kavanagh21%
Jordan McEneff18%
Ben Doherty14%
Cameron McJannett13%
Ronan Boyce10%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Mark Connolly0%
Paul McMullan0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Brian Maher0%
Cian Kavanagh0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Sadou Diallo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sadou Diallo33%
Adam O'Reilly31%
Cameron Dummigan30%
Ronan Boyce30%
Ben Doherty21%
Paul McMullan17%
Brandon Kavanagh14%
Brian Maher13%
Cian Kavanagh12%
Mark Connolly11%
Ciaran Coll11%
Jamie McGonigle11%
Danny Mullen8%
Shane McEleney8%
Cameron McJannett7%
William Patching0%
Michael Duffy0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Sam Todd0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Paul McMullan42%
Brandon Kavanagh29%
Ben Doherty29%
William Patching25%
Michael Duffy20%
Ciaran Coll11%
Cameron Dummigan10%
Danny Mullen8%
Cameron McJannett7%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Mark Connolly0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Brian Maher0%
Cian Kavanagh0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
William Patching50%
Jamie McGonigle33%
Danny Mullen25%
Michael Duffy20%
Ben Doherty14%
Brandon Kavanagh7%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Mark Connolly0%
Paul McMullan0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Brian Maher0%
Cian Kavanagh0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
Shelbourne and Derry City have a similar squad value (both €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
Shelbourne and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Shelbourne and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
Shelbourne and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
Cork City
UCD
Waterford