Sheriff Tiraspol’s defensive record at home is flawless, conceding no goals in recent matches against weaker opposition, while Milsami Orhei has struggled away, conceding twice as many as they score. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected 2.2 goals, most likely totaling two. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% chance. The favored outcome is an away win, with probabilities of 35% for Milsami, 32% for a draw, and 33% for Sheriff. The model’s selections include an 81.4% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 79.1% chance of Under 11.5 corners. Sheriff’s home form shows an average of 2.0 goals scored and none conceded; Milsami’s away form averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger teams. The match is expected to be a narrow contest, with the away side holding the edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Milsami Orhei, fell short as Sheriff Tiraspol secured a 2-0 home victory, extending their recent run of wins and drawing on a strong home form. The model had tipped an away win with a 35% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, with an 81.4% chance, and it hit, as the match produced just two goals. Sheriff’s 2-0 triumph matched the model’s expected total of 2 goals, but the outcome contradicted the favourite call. The final score of 2-0 confirmed a home win, leaving the model’s pick incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol win✓ Hit
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.47
1.00
0.50
1.44
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.22
0.75
0.25
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.25
2.00
0.00
2.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
1.17
1.17
1.25
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
3.00
1.00
4.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.60
1.50
0.75
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.6%
Under 1.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.5%
Under 2.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.1%
0-1
10.9%
1-0
10.4%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.0%
2-0 ✓
6.4%
Sheriff Tiraspol goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.0%
2.7%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.4%
7.3%
4.1%
1.6%
0.4%
3
2.3%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.38
Floreşti
2.17
Petrocub
2.00
Speranis Nisporeni
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.75
Văsieni
1.50
Spartanii Selemet
1.33
Zimbru
1.29
Milsami Orhei
1.17
Dinamo-Auto
1.11
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
0.92
Făleşti
0.00
Speranța Drochia
0.00
Real Succes
0.00
Sucleia
0.00
Sheriff Tiraspol is 1.21 points better than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (2.38 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Speranis Nisporeni
3.00
Văsieni
3.00
Floreşti
2.33
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Spartanii Selemet
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.67
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.62
Petrocub
1.50
Dinamo-Auto
1.33
Zimbru
1.12
Făleşti
1.00
Real Succes
1.00
Sucleia
1.00
Milsami Orhei
0.92
Sfîntul Gheorghe
0.92
CSF Bălți
0.75
Speranța Drochia
0.00
Sheriff Tiraspol is 0.71 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.38
Petrocub
0.71
Dacia-Buiucani
0.71
Floreşti
0.92
Speranis Nisporeni
1.00
Zimbru
1.08
CSF Bălți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.25
Dinamo-Auto
1.41
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.46
Văsieni
1.50
Spartanii Selemet
1.92
Victoria Bardar
2.69
Speranța Drochia
4.00
Făleşti
4.91
Sucleia
6.00
Real Succes
7.00
Sheriff Tiraspol is 0.88 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.56
0.22
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.11
0.50
0.25
0.20
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.20
0.33
0.17
0.89
0.22
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.11
0.25
0.00
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.17
0.83
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
0.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.40
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Abdoul Tapsoba25%
Rasheed Ibrahim Akanbi22%
Mouhamed Diop20%
Iyayi Believe Atiemwen12%
Cedric Badolo10%
Gabi Kiki0%
Renan Guedes0%
Felipe Vizeu0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Amine Talal0%
Maksym Koval0%
Patrick Kpozo0%
Pernambuco0%
Abou Ouattara0%
Heron0%
Eugeniu Gliga0%
Abdoul Moumouni0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Mudasiru Salifu0%
Moussa Kyabou0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rasheed Ibrahim Akanbi44%
Iyayi Believe Atiemwen38%
Patrick Kpozo33%
Abdoul Moumouni33%
Mudasiru Salifu33%
Abdoul Tapsoba25%
Armel Zohouri22%
Moussa Kyabou22%
Stjepan Radeljić20%
Renan Guedes17%
Gabi Kiki0%
Felipe Vizeu0%
Amine Talal0%
Maksym Koval0%
Pernambuco0%
Abou Ouattara0%
Cedric Badolo0%
Heron0%
Eugeniu Gliga0%
Mouhamed Diop0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rasheed Ibrahim Akanbi22%
Maksym Koval11%
Moussa Kyabou11%
Iyayi Believe Atiemwen0%
Gabi Kiki0%
Renan Guedes0%
Felipe Vizeu0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Amine Talal0%
Patrick Kpozo0%
Pernambuco0%
Abou Ouattara0%
Cedric Badolo0%
Heron0%
Abdoul Tapsoba0%
Eugeniu Gliga0%
Abdoul Moumouni0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Mudasiru Salifu0%
Mouhamed Diop0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Abdoul Tapsoba50%
Mouhamed Diop30%
Iyayi Believe Atiemwen12%
Rasheed Ibrahim Akanbi11%
Gabi Kiki0%
Renan Guedes0%
Felipe Vizeu0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Amine Talal0%
Maksym Koval0%
Patrick Kpozo0%
Pernambuco0%
Abou Ouattara0%
Cedric Badolo0%
Heron0%
Eugeniu Gliga0%
Abdoul Moumouni0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Mudasiru Salifu0%
Moussa Kyabou0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Sheriff Tiraspol's squad is €3m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol's attack is €2m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol and Milsami Orhei have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Zimbru
Dinamo-Auto
Floreşti
Sfîntul Gheorghe
CSF Bălți
Spartanii Selemet
Victoria Bardar
Speranis Nisporeni
Văsieni
Sheriff II
Speranța Drochia
Sucleia
Real Succes
Făleşti