This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.80
1.80
0.47
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.25
0.86
0.86
0.40
1.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
2.62
0.12
1.10
0.80
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
61.5%
Under 1.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.3%
Under 2.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.9%
Under 3.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.5%
No
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1 ✓
16.7%
0-0
14.3%
1-1
13.1%
0-2
12.2%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
4.0%
Sibenik goals ↓
HNK Rijeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
17%
12%
5.6%
1.9%
1
7.5%
13%
8.2%
3.7%
1.3%
2
2.9%
4.0%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
3
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sibenik goals (down), columns = HNK Rijeka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
Sibenik is 0.97 points worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
Sibenik is 0.58 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
Sibenik is 1.08 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
Sibenik is 2.8 percentage points worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of average possession (45% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sibenik
For 3.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Rijeka
For 5.5 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 13.6 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
6.8
10.5
1.2
1.4
1.1
23.4
26.1
20.6
vs Stronger (5)
9.0
6.0
9.8
2.2
2.0
2.2
21.2
30.0
19.0
vs Similar (45)
8.5
6.9
11.2
1.1
1.3
0.9
24.4
25.6
22.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
25%
50%
16%
16%
16%
62%
75%
50%
% under line
62%
75%
50%
84%
84%
84%
38%
25%
50%
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.6
8.7
4.5
4.0
5.0
27.4
26.9
27.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.6
10.6
8.3
4.6
4.1
5.2
28.0
28.6
27.2
vs Weaker (32)
8.1
7.2
8.8
4.5
3.9
4.9
27.2
25.8
28.1
% over line
37%
40%
35%
68%
58%
77%
84%
85%
83%
% under line
63%
60%
65%
32%
42%
23%
16%
15%
17%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.8
NK Osijek
9.7
HNK Hajduk Split
9.7
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
NK Slaven Belupo
9.4
Sibenik
8.9
NK Varazdin
8.9
HNK Gorica
8.9
HNK Rijeka
8.9
Istra 1961
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Istra 1961
5.1
HNK Rijeka
4.9
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.8
NK Slaven Belupo
4.7
Dinamo Zagreb
4.7
NK Osijek
4.6
Sibenik
4.6
NK Varazdin
4.4
HNK Hajduk Split
4.3
HNK Gorica
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
30.2
HNK Rijeka
27.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.8
NK Varazdin
26.4
NK Osijek
26.1
NK Slaven Belupo
26.0
Dinamo Zagreb
25.7
HNK Hajduk Split
25.6
HNK Gorica
24.0
Sibenik
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
31.8%
Under 9.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.2%
Under 3.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.2%
Under 21.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.60
0.27
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.23
0.64
0.14
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.87
0.20
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.58
0.29
0.29
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.33
1.38
0.12
0.40
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.53
0.60
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.42
0.57
0.50
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.93
0.27
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.67
0.57
0.57
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.17
1.25
0.00
0.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Santini19%
Lovre Kulušić15%
Ivan Laća12%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan8%
Morrison Agyemang6%
Josip Majić5%
Ante Kavelj4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Stefan Perić3%
Ivan Božić3%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip Gačić60%
Iker Pozo37%
Ivan Santini35%
Zoran Nižić25%
Josip Majić23%
Stefan Perić21%
Ivan Božić20%
Marin Prekodravac19%
Lovro Cvek19%
Ognjen Bakić19%
Morrison Agyemang16%
Roberto Punčec16%
Antonio Đaković15%
Leonard Žuta15%
Ivan Filipović14%
Ivan Roca14%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan12%
Ante Kavelj9%
Bruno Zdunić8%
Elvir Duraković6%
Toni Kolega4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Ivan Delić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Ivan Laća0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Laća12%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Elvir Duraković6%
Marin Prekodravac5%
Toni Kolega4%
Šime Gržan4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Ivan Santini3%
Morrison Agyemang3%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Lovre Kulušić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Santini26%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Ivan Roca5%
Ivan Laća4%
Šime Gržan4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Leonard Žuta0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Morrison Agyemang0%
HNK Rijeka
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franjo Ivanović50%
Veldin Hodža40%
Toni Fruk31%
Niko Janković24%
Marco Pašalić22%
Duje Čop20%
Komnen Andrić11%
Naïs Djouahra11%
Gabriel Rukavina10%
Stjepan Radeljić8%
Šimun Butić8%
Niko Galešić7%
Ivan Smolčić6%
Luka Menalo6%
Lindon Selahi3%
Mladen Devetak3%
Dejan Petrovič3%
Amer Gojak0%
Mile Škorić0%
Ante Majstorović0%
Bruno Goda0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Stipe Perica0%
Martin Zlomislić0%
Dominik Dogan0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
Jovan Manev0%
Ante Oreč0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ante Oreč43%
Jovan Manev29%
Ivan Smolčić24%
Mladen Devetak23%
Niko Galešić20%
Ante Majstorović19%
Amer Gojak19%
Niko Janković18%
Dejan Petrovič18%
Lindon Selahi17%
Bruno Goda17%
Toni Fruk16%
Stjepan Radeljić15%
Šimun Butić15%
Duje Čop13%
Luka Menalo12%
Komnen Andrić11%
Bruno Bogojević11%
Marco Pašalić11%
Gabriel Rukavina7%
Martin Zlomislić6%
Naïs Djouahra4%
Mile Škorić0%
Stipe Perica0%
Dominik Dogan0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Franjo Ivanović0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toni Fruk31%
Franjo Ivanović25%
Duje Čop13%
Ivan Smolčić12%
Komnen Andrić11%
Marco Pašalić11%
Naïs Djouahra11%
Niko Janković9%
Dejan Petrovič9%
Amer Gojak7%
Silvio Ilinković7%
Mladen Devetak6%
Stjepan Radeljić4%
Bruno Bogojević4%
Lindon Selahi3%
Gabriel Rukavina3%
Ante Majstorović3%
Mile Škorić0%
Bruno Goda0%
Luka Menalo0%
Stipe Perica0%
Martin Zlomislić0%
Dominik Dogan0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Jovan Manev0%
Niko Galešić0%
Ante Oreč0%
Šimun Butić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franjo Ivanović25%
Niko Janković21%
Toni Fruk19%
Marco Pašalić17%
Naïs Djouahra14%
Gabriel Rukavina3%
Dejan Petrovič3%
Amer Gojak0%
Komnen Andrić0%
Ivan Smolčić0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Mile Škorić0%
Ante Majstorović0%
Bruno Goda0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Luka Menalo0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Duje Čop0%
Stipe Perica0%
Martin Zlomislić0%
Lindon Selahi0%
Dominik Dogan0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
Jovan Manev0%
Niko Galešić0%
Ante Oreč0%
Šimun Butić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →