This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.25
1.55
1.50
1.10
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.14
2.00
1.67
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (13)
1.15
1.23
1.29
0.86
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.5%
Under 2.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.6%
1-0
9.9%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.3%
Sibenik goals ↓
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.5%
6.3%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.9%
14%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.8%
8.0%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.8%
3.2%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sibenik goals (down), columns = NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.25
HNK Hajduk Split
1.97
NK Osijek
1.39
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.28
Istra 1961
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.19
HNK Gorica
0.89
Sibenik
0.75
Sibenik is 0.44 points worse than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.25
HNK Hajduk Split
1.81
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
HNK Rijeka
1.22
NK Varazdin
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.00
Istra 1961
1.00
NK Slaven Belupo
0.75
Sibenik
0.67
Sibenik is 0.58 goals worse than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
Istra 1961
1.06
HNK Hajduk Split
1.14
NK Osijek
1.14
HNK Rijeka
1.22
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.39
NK Varazdin
1.42
Sibenik
1.56
Sibenik is 0.17 goals worse than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
63%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
52%
Istra 1961
52%
NK Varazdin
51%
HNK Rijeka
50%
NK Osijek
50%
HNK Gorica
44%
Sibenik
44%
NK Slaven Belupo
42%
Sibenik is 8.1 percentage points worse than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sibenik
For 3.4 · Against 5.5 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.2 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
For 4.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 10.6 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (20)
8.8
6.3
11.4
5.0
5.1
4.9
24.5
26.4
22.6
vs Stronger (7)
9.9
7.8
12.7
4.6
4.5
4.7
23.3
26.2
19.3
vs Similar (13)
8.3
5.3
10.9
5.2
5.5
5.0
25.2
26.5
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
20%
80%
60%
60%
60%
70%
90%
50%
% under line
50%
80%
20%
40%
40%
40%
30%
10%
50%
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (20)
8.8
9.0
8.6
5.0
5.1
5.0
23.1
25.3
21.0
vs Stronger (7)
8.1
9.3
7.2
5.4
4.7
6.0
20.4
20.3
20.5
vs Similar (13)
9.2
8.9
9.5
4.8
5.3
4.3
24.6
27.4
21.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
40%
50%
80%
70%
90%
70%
80%
60%
% under line
55%
60%
50%
20%
30%
10%
30%
20%
40%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
HNK Gorica
8.9
HNK Hajduk Split
8.9
Sibenik
8.8
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
8.8
Dinamo Zagreb
8.4
HNK Rijeka
8.3
NK Varazdin
8.1
Istra 1961
7.9
NK Osijek
7.8
NK Slaven Belupo
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
HNK Gorica
6.0
HNK Rijeka
6.0
NK Varazdin
5.5
Sibenik
5.3
HNK Hajduk Split
5.2
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
5.0
NK Osijek
4.7
Istra 1961
4.7
NK Slaven Belupo
4.6
Dinamo Zagreb
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Varazdin
26.7
HNK Hajduk Split
26.2
HNK Rijeka
25.3
NK Osijek
24.9
Istra 1961
24.9
Sibenik
24.5
HNK Gorica
24.2
NK Slaven Belupo
23.9
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
23.1
Dinamo Zagreb
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
26.1%
Under 9.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.3%
Under 3.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.1%
Under 21.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.50
0.30
0.50
0.30
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.38
0.17
0.50
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.60
0.30
0.40
1.10
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.38
0.43
0.14
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
55% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.45
0.65
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.54
0.50
0.83
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
45% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.85
0.90
0.80
0.60
0.90
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.85
0.86
0.71
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Delić19%
Ivan Dolček17%
Duje Čop14%
Burgui12%
Patrick Salomon7%
Bernardo Matić7%
Amer Hiroš6%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Haruki Arai6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Stefan Perić3%
Marcos Mina3%
Mislav Matić3%
Marko Đira0%
Marcel Čanadi0%
Josip Kvesić0%
Juan Mesa0%
Dejan Radonjić0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Dino Skorup0%
Leon Kreković0%
Mario Ćurić0%
Josip Knežević0%
Nikola Đorić0%
Matija Rom0%
Doni Grdić0%
Iker Pozo0%
Sacha Marasović0%
Niko Rak0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Marko Soldo0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Doni Grdić33%
Nikola Đorić29%
Bernardo Matić27%
Amer Hiroš25%
Matija Rom25%
Marko Đira20%
Marcos Mina20%
Ivan Delić19%
Mislav Matić18%
Ivan Dolček17%
Stefan Perić17%
Mario Ćurić17%
Josip Knežević17%
Ivica Vidović17%
Dejan Radonjić15%
Duje Čop14%
Iker Pozo14%
Dino Skorup13%
Marko Soldo13%
Juan Mesa12%
Haruki Arai9%
Patrick Salomon7%
Josip Kvesić7%
Niko Rak7%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Lovre Rogić6%
Leon Kreković6%
Dario Čanađija6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Marcel Čanadi0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Burgui0%
Sacha Marasović0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Delić19%
Sacha Marasović12%
Duje Čop10%
Ivan Dolček7%
Marko Soldo7%
Amer Hiroš6%
Mislav Matić6%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Marcos Mina3%
Haruki Arai3%
Marko Đira0%
Marcel Čanadi0%
Stefan Perić0%
Patrick Salomon0%
Josip Kvesić0%
Juan Mesa0%
Dejan Radonjić0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Dino Skorup0%
Leon Kreković0%
Mario Ćurić0%
Josip Knežević0%
Nikola Đorić0%
Burgui0%
Bernardo Matić0%
Matija Rom0%
Doni Grdić0%
Iker Pozo0%
Niko Rak0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Duje Čop19%
Ivan Delić19%
Marcel Čanadi10%
Josip Knežević8%
Ivan Dolček7%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Haruki Arai3%
Marko Đira0%
Stefan Perić0%
Patrick Salomon0%
Josip Kvesić0%
Juan Mesa0%
Dejan Radonjić0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Dino Skorup0%
Leon Kreković0%
Mario Ćurić0%
Nikola Đorić0%
Burgui0%
Marcos Mina0%
Mislav Matić0%
Bernardo Matić0%
Amer Hiroš0%
Matija Rom0%
Doni Grdić0%
Iker Pozo0%
Sacha Marasović0%
Niko Rak0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Marko Soldo0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sandro Kulenović26%
Indrit Tuci20%
Ibrahim Aliyu19%
Silvio Goričan17%
Blaž Bošković14%
Jakov Anton Vasilj14%
Luka Stojković13%
Enis Çokaj12%
Vladan Bubanja10%
Josip Pivarić7%
Mateo Marić6%
Jon Mersinaj0%
Ivan Tomečak0%
Ivan Milićević0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Justin De Haas0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Krševan Santini0%
Branimir Cipetić0%
Nikola Soldo0%
Nikola Čavlina0%
Gabriel Groznica0%
Hajdin Salihu0%
Lukas Kačavenda0%
Fabijan Krivak0%
Art Smakaj0%
Fran Žilinski0%
Marin Šotiček0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enis Çokaj38%
Mateo Marić35%
Fran Žilinski33%
Hajdin Salihu29%
Jon Mersinaj28%
Art Smakaj23%
Vladan Bubanja21%
Lukas Kačavenda20%
Fabijan Krivak20%
Ivan Milićević17%
Branimir Kalaica17%
Indrit Tuci17%
Silvio Goričan14%
Blaž Bošković14%
Branimir Cipetić12%
Josip Pivarić11%
Luka Stojković10%
Marko Vranjković10%
Justin De Haas10%
Sandro Kulenović9%
Ibrahim Aliyu8%
Nikola Čavlina7%
Ivan Tomečak0%
Krševan Santini0%
Nikola Soldo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Gabriel Groznica0%
Marin Šotiček0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Indrit Tuci17%
Sandro Kulenović15%
Ivan Milićević13%
Luka Stojković13%
Enis Çokaj12%
Mateo Marić10%
Branimir Cipetić9%
Art Smakaj8%
Josip Pivarić7%
Lukas Kačavenda7%
Marko Vranjković5%
Jakov Anton Vasilj5%
Ibrahim Aliyu4%
Silvio Goričan3%
Jon Mersinaj0%
Ivan Tomečak0%
Justin De Haas0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Krševan Santini0%
Nikola Soldo0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Nikola Čavlina0%
Gabriel Groznica0%
Hajdin Salihu0%
Fabijan Krivak0%
Fran Žilinski0%
Marin Šotiček0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Indrit Tuci23%
Ibrahim Aliyu19%
Sandro Kulenović18%
Luka Stojković17%
Enis Çokaj12%
Jakov Anton Vasilj9%
Josip Pivarić7%
Lukas Kačavenda7%
Jon Mersinaj0%
Ivan Tomečak0%
Ivan Milićević0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Justin De Haas0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Mateo Marić0%
Krševan Santini0%
Branimir Cipetić0%
Silvio Goričan0%
Nikola Soldo0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Nikola Čavlina0%
Gabriel Groznica0%
Hajdin Salihu0%
Fabijan Krivak0%
Art Smakaj0%
Fran Žilinski0%
Marin Šotiček0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
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Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Osijek
HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961
NK Varazdin
NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica