Sligo Rovers face a tough test at home, but the model favours a Derry City win, with a 49% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, and the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, which carries a 13.3% probability. Sligo, playing against a stronger side, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Derry, facing a weaker opponent on the road, scores 1.33 and concedes only 0.67. The suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 84.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 83.8%, Under 3.5 goals at 75.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 71.2%, with Over 1.5 and Over 8.5 corners at 73.1% and 72.9% respectively. The recent form shows Sligo coming off a 0-3 defeat to Bohemians, whereas Derry finished 3-3 against Shamrock Rovers.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Derry City, fell short as Sligo Rovers edged a 1-0 win, extending their recent run of defeats into a narrow triumph. The model had tipped an away win with a 49% probability, but that call proved wrong. The match delivered 1-0, a home win that contradicted the 23% home win and 28% draw odds. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards hit at 84.9%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 83.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 75.1%, while Over 1.5 missed at 73.1%, Over 8.5 corners missed at 72.9%, and Over 21.5 fouls hit at 71.2%. The final score of 1-0 was the only outcome that matched the actual result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sligo Rovers win✓ Hit
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Derry City win✗ Miss
49.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sligo Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.37
1.20
1.20
0.93
1.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.33
0.80
1.40
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.38
1.40
1.10
0.91
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.83
1.40
0.53
1.53
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.43
0.91
1.27
0.55
1.58
1.25
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.57
1.75
0.50
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
11.2%
0-2
9.6%
1-2
9.4%
0-0
9.2%
1-0 ✓
6.6%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.0%
Sligo Rovers goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
11%
9.6%
5.0%
1.9%
1
6.6%
13%
9.4%
4.8%
1.9%
2
3.8%
5.9%
4.6%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.2%
1.9%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sligo Rovers goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
Derry City
1.81
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Shelbourne
1.67
Dundalk
1.61
Bohemians
1.61
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
1.03
Waterford
1.00
Cork City
0.86
UCD
0.31
Sligo Rovers is 0.78 points worse than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.86
Dundalk
1.64
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.58
Bohemians
1.47
Shelbourne
1.22
Drogheda United
1.11
Waterford
1.00
Sligo Rovers
1.00
Cork City
0.97
UCD
0.53
Sligo Rovers is 0.58 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derry City
0.67
Shelbourne
0.75
Shamrock Rovers
0.75
Waterford
1.00
Bohemians
1.11
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Dundalk
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.50
Cork City
1.76
UCD
2.67
Sligo Rovers is 0.75 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Bohemians
57%
Dundalk
56%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
Sligo Rovers
49%
St Patrick's Athl.
46%
Cork City
45%
Drogheda United
40%
UCD
38%
Sligo Rovers is 6.9 percentage points worse than Derry City in terms of average possession (49% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sligo Rovers
For 5.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 13.1 · Total 28.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 5.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 13.9 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sligo Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
10.7
7.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
27.4
25.4
30.0
vs Stronger (18)
11.2
12.0
10.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
25.0
24.0
27.0
vs Similar (31)
8.2
10.0
6.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
28.7
26.3
31.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
22%
24%
20%
89%
80%
100%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
78%
76%
80%
11%
20%
0%
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.4
10.2
1.5
1.2
1.8
24.9
26.7
23.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
10.2
10.0
10.2
1.7
1.0
2.4
25.8
32.0
23.5
vs Weaker (14)
11.0
11.0
-
0.9
1.6
0.0
21.3
21.3
-
% over line
60%
57%
62%
18%
16%
20%
71%
83%
62%
% under line
40%
43%
38%
82%
84%
80%
29%
17%
38%
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
12.8
UCD
10.2
Shamrock Rovers
10.2
Derry City
10.0
Drogheda United
9.8
Cork City
9.7
St Patrick's Athl.
9.5
Sligo Rovers
9.2
Shelbourne
7.9
Dundalk
7.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
6.8
Shelbourne
5.8
Derry City
5.4
Dundalk
5.1
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
Sligo Rovers
4.8
Bohemians
4.8
Cork City
4.1
UCD
3.8
Drogheda United
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sligo Rovers
27.4
Shelbourne
26.4
Dundalk
26.1
St Patrick's Athl.
25.6
Derry City
24.9
Cork City
24.6
Bohemians
23.2
Shamrock Rovers
23.2
Drogheda United
21.1
UCD
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.3%
Under 9.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.3%
Under 3.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.2%
Under 21.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.56
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.50
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.33
0.47
0.27
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.35
0.36
0.27
0.83
0.42
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.29
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.81
0.80
0.60
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.93
0.27
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.57
0.91
0.27
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.29
1.00
0.25
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sligo Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Max Mata33%
Stefan Radosavljević27%
Kailin Barlow17%
Fabrice Hartmann10%
Pedro Martelo8%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Frank Liivak0%
Greg Bolger0%
Luke McNicholas0%
John Mahon0%
David Cawley0%
Niall Morahan0%
Garry Buckley0%
William Fitzgerald0%
Karl O'Sullivan0%
Nando Pijnaker0%
Johan Brannefalk0%
Richard Brush0%
Robbie Burton0%
Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt0%
Conor Walsh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Robbie Burton57%
Fabrice Hartmann50%
Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt43%
Nando Pijnaker42%
Greg Bolger38%
Johan Brannefalk31%
Garry Buckley27%
Frank Liivak25%
John Mahon23%
Karl O'Sullivan20%
David Cawley18%
William Fitzgerald17%
Niall Morahan14%
Reece Hutchinson11%
Pedro Martelo8%
Kailin Barlow8%
Luke McNicholas0%
Stefan Radosavljević0%
Max Mata0%
Richard Brush0%
Conor Walsh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kailin Barlow17%
Fabrice Hartmann10%
Niall Morahan7%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Pedro Martelo0%
Frank Liivak0%
Greg Bolger0%
Luke McNicholas0%
John Mahon0%
David Cawley0%
Garry Buckley0%
William Fitzgerald0%
Karl O'Sullivan0%
Stefan Radosavljević0%
Nando Pijnaker0%
Max Mata0%
Johan Brannefalk0%
Richard Brush0%
Robbie Burton0%
Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt0%
Conor Walsh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Martelo33%
Max Mata33%
Fabrice Hartmann30%
Stefan Radosavljević9%
Nando Pijnaker8%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Frank Liivak0%
Greg Bolger0%
Luke McNicholas0%
John Mahon0%
David Cawley0%
Niall Morahan0%
Garry Buckley0%
William Fitzgerald0%
Karl O'Sullivan0%
Johan Brannefalk0%
Richard Brush0%
Robbie Burton0%
Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt0%
Conor Walsh0%
Kailin Barlow0%
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamie McGonigle44%
William Patching42%
Michael Duffy30%
Danny Mullen25%
Brandon Kavanagh21%
Jordan McEneff18%
Ben Doherty14%
Cameron McJannett13%
Ronan Boyce10%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Mark Connolly0%
Paul McMullan0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Brian Maher0%
Cian Kavanagh0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Sadou Diallo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sadou Diallo33%
Adam O'Reilly31%
Cameron Dummigan30%
Ronan Boyce30%
Ben Doherty21%
Paul McMullan17%
Brandon Kavanagh14%
Brian Maher13%
Cian Kavanagh12%
Mark Connolly11%
Ciaran Coll11%
Jamie McGonigle11%
Danny Mullen8%
Shane McEleney8%
Cameron McJannett7%
William Patching0%
Michael Duffy0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Sam Todd0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Paul McMullan42%
Brandon Kavanagh29%
Ben Doherty29%
William Patching25%
Michael Duffy20%
Ciaran Coll11%
Cameron Dummigan10%
Danny Mullen8%
Cameron McJannett7%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Mark Connolly0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Brian Maher0%
Cian Kavanagh0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
William Patching50%
Jamie McGonigle33%
Danny Mullen25%
Michael Duffy20%
Ben Doherty14%
Brandon Kavanagh7%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Mark Connolly0%
Paul McMullan0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Brian Maher0%
Cian Kavanagh0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
Sligo Rovers's squad is €1m less valuable than Derry City's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
Dundalk
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Cork City
UCD
Waterford