This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
1.53
0.80
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.74
1.18
0.73
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
1.43
2.50
1.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
63.3%
Under 1.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.9%
Under 2.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.1%
Under 3.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.5%
No
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.6%
1-0
11.9%
0-1 â
11.1%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
6.3%
Sligo Rovers goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
11%
6.3%
2.1%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.2%
7.3%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.6%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sligo Rovers goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.83
Derry City
1.75
Shelbourne
1.64
Bohemians
1.50
St Patrick's Athl.
1.44
Drogheda United
1.42
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Waterford
1.14
Galway United
1.08
Cork City
0.67
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Sligo Rovers is 0.61 points worse than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.75).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.56
Derry City
1.44
Shelbourne
1.33
Bohemians
1.33
Sligo Rovers
1.17
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Waterford
1.16
Drogheda United
1.06
Galway United
1.03
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Cork City
0.92
Sligo Rovers is 0.28 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.44).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.89
Shamrock Rovers
0.92
Shelbourne
1.03
Drogheda United
1.06
Bohemians
1.08
Derry City
1.08
Galway United
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.50
Waterford
1.65
Cork City
1.69
Bray Wanderers
2.00
Sligo Rovers is 0.42 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.08).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Shelbourne
57%
Bohemians
56%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Sligo Rovers
49%
Waterford
47%
Cork City
46%
Galway United
41%
Drogheda United
36%
Sligo Rovers is 4.6 percentage points worse than Derry City in terms of average possession (49% vs 54%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Sligo Rovers
For 4.6 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 6.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 8.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 12.9 · Total 25.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sligo Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.9
9.7
5.1
5.5
4.8
25.8
26.4
25.2
vs Stronger (17)
9.2
8.7
9.6
6.1
6.2
6.0
26.1
26.9
25.4
vs Similar (33)
9.4
9.0
9.8
4.6
5.2
4.1
25.6
26.2
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
33%
54%
70%
76%
64%
83%
92%
75%
% under line
56%
67%
46%
30%
24%
36%
17%
8%
25%
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.9
8.5
4.8
4.9
4.6
24.4
23.8
25.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.2
9.6
8.6
4.5
4.9
4.1
24.2
23.5
25.3
vs Weaker (13)
9.5
11.8
8.3
5.5
5.2
5.6
25.2
25.5
25.0
% over line
41%
48%
33%
76%
81%
71%
74%
64%
86%
% under line
59%
52%
67%
24%
19%
29%
26%
36%
14%
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.8
Waterford
9.8
Shamrock Rovers
9.8
St Patrick's Athl.
9.7
Drogheda United
9.7
Galway United
9.6
Cork City
9.6
Derry City
9.4
Sligo Rovers
9.2
Shelbourne
8.6
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shelbourne
6.1
Bohemians
5.8
Waterford
5.5
Sligo Rovers
5.5
Shamrock Rovers
5.4
St Patrick's Athl.
5.3
Derry City
5.2
Cork City
5.1
Galway United
4.7
Drogheda United
4.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sligo Rovers
25.9
Cork City
25.4
Bohemians
25.1
Waterford
25.0
Shelbourne
25.0
St Patrick's Athl.
24.6
Derry City
24.5
Galway United
24.4
Shamrock Rovers
23.3
Drogheda United
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.0%
Under 9.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.3%
Under 3.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.4%
Under 21.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.60
0.56
0.67
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.47
0.60
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.57
0.36
0.55
0.25
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.13
0.86
0.64
0.50
1.56
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.20
1.00
0.60
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (20)
0.55
1.10
0.78
0.67
0.36
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
1.07
0.20
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.17
0.82
0.18
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
1.00
1.75
0.25
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Sligo Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Owen Elding33%
Ryan O'Kane18%
Francely Lomboto17%
Jad Hakiki16%
Cian Kavanagh15%
Patrick McClean14%
Wilson Waweru12%
Gareth McElroy11%
Reece Hutchinson10%
Oliver Denham5%
Stephen Mallon0%
Jake Doyle Hayes0%
Sam Sargeant0%
Connor Malley0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
John Mahon0%
William Fitzgerald0%
Ronan Manning0%
Matthew Wolfe0%
Oskar van Hattum0%
Edwin Agbaje0%
Sean Stewart0%
Harvey Lintott0%
Seb Quirk0%
Conor Walsh0%
James McManus0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jake Doyle Hayes53%
John Mahon47%
Connor Malley40%
Ciaron Harkin33%
Edwin Agbaje33%
Cian Kavanagh23%
Conor Reynolds22%
Matthew Wolfe19%
Jad Hakiki19%
Harvey Lintott18%
Daire Patton17%
Oliver Denham16%
Gareth McElroy16%
James McManus15%
Owen Elding15%
Reece Hutchinson15%
Patrick McClean14%
Francely Lomboto13%
William Fitzgerald12%
Ronan Manning12%
Oskar van Hattum10%
Sean Stewart10%
Seb Quirk8%
Kyle McDonagh7%
Sam Sargeant7%
Stephen Mallon0%
Wilson Waweru0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Conor Walsh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
William Fitzgerald18%
Owen Elding12%
Jake Doyle Hayes12%
Ciaron Harkin11%
Connor Malley10%
Oskar van Hattum10%
Matthew Wolfe10%
Harvey Lintott9%
Daire Patton8%
Ronan Manning6%
Gareth McElroy5%
Reece Hutchinson5%
Cian Kavanagh4%
Jad Hakiki3%
Stephen Mallon0%
Sam Sargeant0%
Patrick McClean0%
John Mahon0%
Wilson Waweru0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Oliver Denham0%
Edwin Agbaje0%
Francely Lomboto0%
Sean Stewart0%
Seb Quirk0%
Conor Walsh0%
James McManus0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Owen Elding33%
Jad Hakiki25%
Ryan O'Kane18%
Cian Kavanagh15%
Gareth McElroy11%
Seb Quirk8%
Francely Lomboto4%
Stephen Mallon0%
Jake Doyle Hayes0%
Sam Sargeant0%
Connor Malley0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Patrick McClean0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
John Mahon0%
William Fitzgerald0%
Wilson Waweru0%
Ronan Manning0%
Matthew Wolfe0%
Oskar van Hattum0%
Oliver Denham0%
Edwin Agbaje0%
Sean Stewart0%
Harvey Lintott0%
Conor Walsh0%
James McManus0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Danny Mullen24%
Liam Boyce22%
Alex Bannon17%
Gavin Whyte14%
Pat Hoban14%
Kevin Holt11%
Adam O'Reilly10%
Sadou Diallo10%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Ronan Boyce7%
Robbie Benson4%
Sam Todd3%
Mark Connolly3%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sadou Diallo48%
Adam O'Reilly45%
Carl Winchester40%
Jamie Stott40%
Ciaron Harkin40%
Shane Ferguson33%
Liam Boyce22%
Hayden Cann22%
Danny Mullen20%
Ben Doherty20%
Paul McMullan19%
Mark Connolly18%
Kevin Holt17%
Ronan Boyce17%
Alex Bannon17%
Robbie Benson15%
Michael Duffy15%
Pat Hoban14%
Sean Patton11%
Sam Todd10%
Dominic Thomas8%
Gavin Whyte7%
Brian Maher6%
Brandon Fleming0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Duffy24%
Dominic Thomas23%
Brandon Fleming17%
Afolabi Akinyemi14%
Paul McMullan12%
Gavin Whyte11%
Jamie Stott10%
Shane Ferguson8%
Robbie Benson7%
Sam Todd7%
Carl Winchester7%
Liam Boyce4%
Hayden Cann4%
Danny Mullen4%
Ronan Boyce3%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Mark Connolly0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Alex Bannon0%
Sean Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Alex Bannon17%
Danny Mullen12%
Liam Boyce9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Mark Connolly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Robbie Benson0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Ben Doherty0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Sligo Rovers's squad is €1m less valuable than Derry City's (€3m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
Bohemians
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
Waterford
Galway United
Cork City
Bray Wanderers