Sligo Rovers face a tough test at home against Waterford, with the visitor's recent form on a 2-game winning run and a strong away record against similar opponents. Waterford's away scoring average of 1.45 goals per game is matched by Sligo Rovers' home conceding average of 2 goals per game.
The model predicts a 43% chance of an away win, with the most likely scoreline being a 1-1 draw, occurring 12.3% of the time. The expected total number of goals is 3, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
Sligo Rovers' recent defeat at home to Derry City has dampened their spirits. They average 1.4 goals scored and 2 goals conceded at home against similar opponents. Waterford, meanwhile, averages 1.45 goals scored and 2.45 goals conceded away against similar opponents.
The model's selections include an 80.7% chance of Over 1.5 goals and a 74.4% chance of Home or Away. The home side has a 30% chance of winning, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 43% chance of an away win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Waterford, did not come through, as the game finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction. The model had given Waterford a 43 % chance to win, but the result was a stalemate, so the model’s pick was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.3 %, Under 6.5 hit at 95.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 92.7 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 91.8 %, Under 5.5 hit at 89.7 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 89.1 %. The match saw both sides come off recent draws, with Sligo Rovers ending a streak of D-L-D-D-L and Waterford remaining unbeaten in five games.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sligo Rovers win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.84
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.99
10Bet
2.94
1xBet
2.92
Marathonbet
2.91
William Hil
2.88
Draw✓ Hit
26.3%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.45
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.71
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Waterford win✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.27
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sligo Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.67
1.07
1.64
0.75
1.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.70
0.50
1.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.65
1.30
1.80
0.60
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.70
1.33
1.13
1.40
2.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.46
1.77
1.46
1.08
1.46
2.46
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.2%
@ 1.19+3.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
@ 4.23-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.70
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Betfair
4.33
1xBet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.7%
@ 1.66+1.2%
Under 2.5
42.3%
@ 2.15-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.73
SBO
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Betano
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
@ 2.59-0.7%
Under 3.5
64.7%
@ 1.45+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
888Sport
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Unibet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.61
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.0%
@ 1.53+0.6%
No
39.0%
@ 2.34-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.53
888Sport
1.53
No
BetVictor
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.37
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 6.44+5.3%
1-2
9.1%@ 8.52+3.9%
2-1
7.5%@ 9.56+2.9%
0-1
7.1%@ 9.36+2.3%
0-2
6.7%@ 11.95+3.0%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.80+2.1%
0-0 ✓
6.1%@ 12.03+2.4%
1-0
5.7%@ 10.40+1.4%
Sligo Rovers goals ↓
Waterford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
7.1%
6.7%
3.7%
1.5%
1
5.7%
12%
9.1%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.6%
7.5%
6.2%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.1%
3.4%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sligo Rovers goals (down), columns = Waterford goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Sligo Rovers is 0.31 points worse than Waterford in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Sligo Rovers is 0.55 goals worse than Waterford in terms of goals scored per game (0.79 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Sligo Rovers and Waterford are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Sligo Rovers is 7.7 percentage points better than Waterford in terms of average possession (46% vs 39%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sligo Rovers
For 3.3 · Against 7.6 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 10.6 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
For 4.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 8.8 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sligo Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.7
11.6
4.0
4.0
4.0
19.4
20.5
18.4
vs Stronger (17)
10.4
10.6
10.2
3.4
4.5
2.3
19.0
21.4
16.6
vs Similar (33)
11.5
10.8
12.2
4.4
3.8
4.9
19.6
20.1
19.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
58%
68%
50%
54%
46%
29%
29%
28%
% under line
37%
42%
32%
50%
46%
54%
71%
71%
72%
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.9
9.7
4.5
4.8
4.2
22.5
22.8
22.2
vs Stronger (6)
7.4
8.0
6.5
3.3
3.2
3.5
19.8
19.7
20.0
vs Similar (43)
11.2
12.4
10.0
4.8
5.1
4.4
22.8
23.2
22.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
64%
48%
62%
65%
58%
67%
72%
61%
% under line
44%
36%
52%
38%
35%
42%
33%
28%
39%
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.1
Waterford
10.9
Galway United
10.5
Dundalk
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.3
Drogheda United
10.2
Bohemians
10.0
Shelbourne
9.7
Derry City
9.4
Shamrock Rovers
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.2
Dundalk
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Shelbourne
4.8
Bohemians
4.8
Waterford
4.7
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.6
Sligo Rovers
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bohemians
23.5
Dundalk
23.3
Galway United
23.3
Derry City
23.2
St Patrick's Athl.
23.0
Shamrock Rovers
22.9
Waterford
22.5
Drogheda United
22.1
Shelbourne
21.3
Sligo Rovers
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.5%
@ 1.46-3.7%
Under 9.5
40.5%
@ 2.50+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Under
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.47
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.8%
Under 3.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.0%
Under 21.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sligo Rovers or Draw✓ Hit
64.2%
Avg Implied 59.4% · @ 1.56
Edge
+4.8%
31%
26%
43%
covers Sligo Rovers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
William Hil
1.57
Sligo Rovers or Waterford✗ Miss
74.4%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.4%
31%
26%
43%
covers Sligo Rovers + Waterford
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Waterford✓ Hit
61.4%
Avg Implied 67.6% · @ 1.38
Edge
-6.2%
31%
26%
43%
covers Draw + Waterford
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.2%
@ 1.25+6.3%
Under
19.8%
@ 3.54-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.82
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.1%
@ 2.27+7.1%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.58-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.36
10Bet
2.35
888Sport
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.2%
@ 5.08+3.9%
Under
77.8%
@ 1.13-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
888Sport
5.50
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Sligo Rovers over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 13.08+0.8%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.03-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Waterford over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
78.9%
@ 1.19+1.0%
Under
21.1%
@ 4.18-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.41
1xBet
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Waterford over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.0%
@ 1.98-1.0%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.76+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.05
Unibet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Waterford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.5%
@ 4.10-2.1%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.20+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
888Sport
4.40
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Waterford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 9.60-2.5%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.04+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.90
Betfair
9.50
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sligo Rovers, so a minus line means Sligo Rovers give that many goals of a start and Waterford receive them. At -1, Sligo Rovers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sligo Rovers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sligo Rovers)Actual: Waterford
Sligo Rovers -2
8.1%
@ 12.67+0.9%
Draw -2
11.8%
@ 8.00+0.5%
Waterford +2
80.1%
@ 1.11-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
7.00
Away
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Sligo Rovers)Actual: Waterford
Sligo Rovers -1
19.9%
@ 5.50+3.7%
Draw -1
18.7%
@ 4.57-0.8%
Waterford +1
61.4%
@ 1.39-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.20
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.10
Away
Unibet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Handicap +1 (Sligo Rovers)Actual: Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers +1
64.2%
@ 1.55+6.9%
Draw +1
17.9%
@ 4.12-3.8%
Waterford -1
17.9%
@ 4.23-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Handicap +2 (Sligo Rovers)Actual: Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers +2
82.1%
@ 1.18+6.0%
Draw +2
10.9%
@ 6.46-3.0%
Waterford -2
7.0%
@ 8.96-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.64
0.57
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.55
0.70
0.50
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.53
0.67
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.85
0.62
0.69
0.85
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.0%
@ 1.30+0.7%
Under 0.5
28.0%
@ 3.22-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
William Hil
3.50
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.0%
@ 2.38-2.9%
Under 1.5
64.0%
@ 1.52+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
Under
William Hil
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Betano
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.0%
@ 5.44-5.0%
Under 2.5
88.0%
@ 1.11+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Unibet
5.30
Superbet
5.25
Under
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.0%
@ 2.00+1.7%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.73-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.77
Unibet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 6.24-0.2%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.08+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 16.88-2.0%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.6%
@ 1.84-4.7%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.86+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 5.14-7.0%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.12+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 12.50-4.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.10
0.43
1.07
0.44
1.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.10
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.50
1.10
0.60
1.30
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.80
0.47
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.92
0.85
0.38
0.62
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.11
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.1%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.2%
1.19
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
80.2%
1.25
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.25
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
80.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.5%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.9%
1.19
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
78.5%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
888Sport
1.13
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.4%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.0%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.4%
1.25
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sligo Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
William Fitzgerald21%
Jad Hakiki17%
Cian Kavanagh13%
Archie Meekison10%
A. Nolan10%
Mai Traore7%
Sean McHale6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
D. Patton5%
Carl McHugh5%
J. Esua4%
G. McElroy4%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Oliver Denham0%
Sean Stewart0%
S. Quirk0%
J. McManus0%
Jack Shorrock0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Luke Pearce0%
Trey George0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ciaron Harkin40%
J. Esua22%
Luke Pearce20%
S. Quirk19%
Carl McHugh18%
J. McManus16%
G. McElroy14%
William Fitzgerald12%
Sean Stewart12%
Oliver Denham12%
Shane Blaney10%
A. Nolan10%
Cian Kavanagh9%
S. Sargeant7%
Mai Traore7%
Sean McHale6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
Archie Meekison5%
D. Patton5%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Trey George0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGonigle25%
Luke Pearce20%
Archie Meekison14%
William Fitzgerald12%
Cian Kavanagh9%
Sean Stewart6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
A. Nolan5%
Carl McHugh5%
J. Esua4%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Mai Traore0%
Oliver Denham0%
S. Quirk0%
J. McManus0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
G. McElroy0%
D. Patton0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Sean McHale0%
Trey George0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cian Kavanagh22%
Mai Traore7%
S. Quirk6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
A. Nolan5%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Carl McHugh0%
Archie Meekison0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
William Fitzgerald0%
J. Esua0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Oliver Denham0%
Sean Stewart0%
J. McManus0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
G. McElroy0%
D. Patton0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Sean McHale0%
Luke Pearce0%
Trey George0%
Waterford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Lonergan42%
John Mahon19%
Pádraig Amond19%
J. Voilås13%
K. Long11%
D. McMenamy4%
Benny Couto4%
Conan Noonan4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
H. Cann0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Will Johnson45%
Ronan Mansfield43%
S. Glenfield29%
Luke Heeney27%
John Mahon27%
Evan McLaughlin25%
Noah Mawene25%
Tom Lonergan19%
Jordan Houston18%
K. Long17%
Benny Couto16%
H. Cann14%
D. McMenamy13%
Conan Noonan12%
Cian Barrett9%
J. Voilås9%
Conor Carty7%
Pádraig Amond4%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benny Couto16%
J. Voilås13%
Evan McLaughlin12%
Conan Noonan12%
Tom Lonergan12%
D. McMenamy9%
Jordan Houston6%
K. Long6%
John Mahon4%
Pádraig Amond4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tom Lonergan42%
Pádraig Amond15%
Benny Couto8%
Conor Carty7%
K. Long6%
J. Voilås4%
John Mahon4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
Conan Noonan0%
D. McMenamy0%
Arlo Doherty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Sligo Rovers and Waterford have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Waterford have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Waterford have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Sligo Rovers and Waterford have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Derry City
Galway United
Drogheda United