Sparta Rotterdam's recent win over Telstar has given them a boost, but Utrecht's strong away form against weaker opponents suggests a possible upset. The model predicts an away win for Utrecht, with a 43% probability of victory.
The expected total goals is 3.0, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.1%. Utrecht's away scoring and conceding statistics against weaker opponents are 1.2 and 1.6 goals per match, respectively. Sparta Rotterdam's home scoring and conceding statistics against stronger opponents are 0.75 and 1.75 goals per match.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.7% probability and a 4% edge, Home or Away, with a 73.1% probability, and Draw or Away, with a 70.6% probability and a 7% edge. The home win percentage is 30%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 43%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht finished 3-3, a draw that extended Sparta’s recent run of one win, one draw and three losses, while Utrecht mirrored the same pattern. The pre-match favourite, the model’s “Away win” pick with a 43 % probability, proved wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.1 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3 %, Under 6.5 at 97.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.9 %, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.0 %. Only Under 5.5, at 92.8 %, missed. The final score of 3-3 matched the model’s most likely 1-1, 1-2 or 2-1 outcome, but the overall result was a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam win✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied 36.3% · @ 2.58
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.67
Pinnacle
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
1xBet
2.64
Draw✓ Hit
25.8%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.41
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.51
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Utrecht win✗ Miss
43.4%
Avg Implied 36.2% · @ 2.59
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.70
1xBet
2.68
Betano
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.57
1.31
1.19
1.43
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.00
0.00
1.33
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.43
1.62
1.15
1.40
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.40
1.27
1.47
1.60
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.00
0.50
1.50
1.75
2.25
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.50
1.29
1.86
2.00
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
1.14
1.83
0.50
1.12
1.62
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
@ 1.21+4.7%
Under 1.5
17.7%
@ 4.18-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.48
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.4%
@ 1.71+4.2%
Under 2.5
40.6%
@ 2.11-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.76
1xBet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Under
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
SBO
2.16
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.0%
@ 2.73+2.7%
Under 3.5
63.0%
@ 1.43-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.78
Superbet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.3%
@ 1.56+2.8%
No
37.7%
@ 2.29-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
888Sport
1.57
10Bet
1.57
No
Betano
2.42
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.28+4.7%
1-2
9.1%@ 9.15+4.2%
2-1
7.5%@ 9.03+2.5%
0-1
6.7%@ 9.67+2.0%
0-2
6.5%@ 13.35+3.1%
2-2
6.3%@ 10.88+2.2%
0-0
5.7%@ 11.88+1.9%
1-0
5.3%@ 9.77+0.7%
Sparta Rotterdam goals ↓
Utrecht goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
6.7%
6.5%
3.7%
1.5%
1
5.3%
12%
9.1%
5.1%
2.2%
2
4.5%
7.5%
6.3%
3.6%
1.5%
3
2.1%
3.5%
2.9%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sparta Rotterdam goals (down), columns = Utrecht goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Sparta Rotterdam is 0.32 points worse than Utrecht in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Sparta Rotterdam is 0.43 goals worse than Utrecht in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Sparta Rotterdam is 0.60 goals worse than Utrecht in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Sparta Rotterdam is 0.5 percentage points better than Utrecht in terms of average possession (47% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam
For 3.9 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 10.8 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Utrecht
For 4.6 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 10.1 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sparta Rotterdam
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.7
11.0
3.5
3.5
3.6
20.4
20.2
20.6
vs Stronger (14)
10.9
11.0
10.7
3.4
3.9
2.9
18.9
17.7
20.0
vs Similar (36)
10.8
10.5
11.1
3.6
3.3
3.9
20.9
21.1
20.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
62%
62%
52%
50%
54%
40%
31%
50%
% under line
38%
38%
38%
48%
50%
46%
60%
69%
50%
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.6
3.7
4.0
3.4
23.0
23.6
22.4
vs Stronger (10)
11.4
10.2
12.6
4.5
6.6
2.4
23.5
26.4
20.6
vs Similar (19)
9.1
9.8
8.1
3.8
4.0
3.6
22.8
24.0
21.2
vs Weaker (21)
9.4
9.7
9.2
3.1
2.4
3.7
22.9
21.7
23.8
% over line
53%
54%
52%
52%
52%
52%
53%
62%
44%
% under line
47%
46%
48%
48%
48%
48%
47%
38%
56%
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.2
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Sparta Rotterdam
10.8
Fortuna Sittard
10.7
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Groningen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.8
Ajax
9.8
Utrecht
9.7
Excelsior
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Cambuur
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
4.0
Feyenoord
3.9
Utrecht
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.7
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Twente
3.6
Groningen
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
GO Ahead Eagles
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
27.0
Cambuur
26.5
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.7
Utrecht
23.0
PEC Zwolle
22.9
AZ Alkmaar
22.8
Feyenoord
22.7
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
22.1
Excelsior
21.8
Groningen
20.9
Twente
20.4
Heerenveen
20.4
Sparta Rotterdam
20.4
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.9%
@ 1.58+3.5%
Under 9.5
38.1%
@ 2.22-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
45.1%
@ 1.78-6.8%
Under 3.5
54.9%
@ 1.92+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
Unibet
1.92
Superbet
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
48.7%
Under 21.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw✓ Hit
56.3%
Avg Implied 63.8% · @ 1.47
Edge
-7.5%
31%
26%
43%
covers Sparta Rotterdam + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Sparta Rotterdam or Utrecht✗ Miss
73.1%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.29
Edge
+0.5%
31%
26%
43%
covers Sparta Rotterdam + Utrecht
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Draw or Utrecht✓ Hit
70.6%
Avg Implied 63.6% · @ 1.47
Edge
+7.0%
31%
26%
43%
covers Draw + Utrecht
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.1%
@ 1.23-3.3%
Under
27.9%
@ 3.78+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.14
888Sport
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.5%
@ 2.17-6.6%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.64+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
888Sport
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.8%
@ 4.75-5.8%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.16+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 10.90-4.6%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Utrecht over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.7%
@ 1.23+4.3%
Under
20.3%
@ 3.78-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Under
Pinnacle
4.09
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
888Sport
3.80
Utrecht over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.4%
@ 2.17+4.5%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.64-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
Under
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Utrecht over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.6%
@ 4.78+2.1%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.16-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Utrecht over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 11.00-0.8%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sparta Rotterdam, so a minus line means Sparta Rotterdam give that many goals of a start and Utrecht receive them. At -1, Sparta Rotterdam must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sparta Rotterdam win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.20
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.20
0.43
0.14
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.50
0.83
0.17
0.38
0.75
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.6%
@ 1.32-1.9%
Under 0.5
31.4%
@ 3.16+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.8%
@ 2.49-3.7%
Under 1.5
66.2%
@ 1.49+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 5.84-4.2%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.10+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.85
William Hil
5.80
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.1%
@ 1.95-5.6%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.78+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 5.78-4.0%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.10+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 15.25-4.5%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.3%
@ 1.96-1.3%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.77+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Unibet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 5.82-2.6%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.10+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Unibet
6.00
Betano
5.70
Superbet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 14.88-4.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sparta Rotterdam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.07
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.43
0.00
0.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.96
0.92
0.77
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.80
1.07
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.30
0.86
1.71
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.64
1.00
0.33
0.75
0.88
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.0%
Under 0.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.8%
Under 1.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.1%
Under
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.8%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
92.2%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.0%
1.13
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.2%
1.16
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
83.6%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.15
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.3%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.23
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.4%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
-2.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
77.1%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.6%
1.41
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.35
-
-
-
+9.1%
-
Over 8.5 corners
73.4%
1.32
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.1%
1.29
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+0.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.6%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
70.6%
1.46
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
+9.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sparta Rotterdam
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Milan Zonneveld50%
Marvin Young50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Nick Verschuren25%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jens Toornstra33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bas Kuipers25%
Casper Terho25%
Lushendry Edward Martes25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Nökkvi Þórisson0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bas Kuipers50%
Shunsuke Mito50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Joel Ideho33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Casper Terho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nökkvi Þórisson67%
Ayoni Santos33%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Utrecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Artem Stepanov100%
Adrian Blake50%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Zagre50%
Dani De Wit50%
Guus Offerhaus50%
Vasilis Barkas33%
Artem Stepanov33%
Siebe Horemans25%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Niklas Vesterlund50%
Yoann Cathline50%
Davy van den Berg25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángel Alarcón25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Sparta Rotterdam's squad is €33m less valuable than Utrecht's (€28m vs €61m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Sparta Rotterdam's attack is €19m less valuable than Utrecht's (€14m vs €33m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Sparta Rotterdam's midfield is €12m less valuable than Utrecht's (€2m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Sparta Rotterdam's defence is €2m less valuable than Utrecht's (€12m vs €15m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Cambuur