Sporting CP is the clear favourite to win against Alverca, with a predicted win probability of 79%. The model's pick is a home win, and this is largely due to Alverca's poor away form, particularly when facing stronger opponents, where they average only 0.2 goals scored and 2.4 goals conceded. Sporting CP, on the other hand, has been unbeaten at home in their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.42 goals per game.
The expected total number of goals is 3.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 12.3%. Sporting CP's home form is impressive, with an average of 3.42 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Alverca's away form is weak, and they will need to improve significantly to challenge Sporting CP.
The model's suggested picks include Home or Draw (94.9%), Home or Away (87.7%), Over 1.5 goals (85.7%), Home win (78.9%), Over 21.5 fouls (75.4%), and Over 3.5 cards (71.0%). Sporting CP has a 79% chance of winning, a 15% chance of drawing, and a 6% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Sporting CP’s 2-game winning run continued as they edged Alverca 3-1, confirming the model’s home-win pick with an 80 % probability. The match finished in the predicted 3-goal range, the most likely scoreline being 2-0. The model’s selections largely hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (99.0 %), Home +2 handicap (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (97.0 %), Under 7.5 (96.9 %), Away under 1.5 HT goals (95.4 %) and Home or Draw (94.9 %). All outcomes matched the final score, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sporting CP win✓ Hit
80.2%
Avg Implied 78.3% · @ 1.20
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Dafabet
1.22
10Bet
1.21
Draw✗ Miss
13.9%
Avg Implied 14.1% · @ 6.67
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.90
Pinnacle
7.55
Betfair
7.00
Dafabet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Alverca win✗ Miss
5.9%
Avg Implied 7.6% · @ 12.47
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
15.50
Pinnacle
13.70
1xBet
13.70
10Bet
13.50
Dafabet
13.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sporting CP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.00
2.25
0.94
1.71
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
2.39
1.09
2.67
0.92
2.09
1.27
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alverca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.57
1.14
1.43
0.94
1.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
2.71
0.50
3.50
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.39
1.40
1.30
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.60
0.50
0.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.2%
@ 1.14+4.0%
Under 1.5
13.8%
@ 5.26-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.44
Superbet
5.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.6%
@ 1.48+3.5%
Under 2.5
33.4%
@ 2.53-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Under
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.63
888Sport
2.60
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.8%
@ 2.25+2.9%
Under 3.5
55.2%
@ 1.62-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.30
SBO
2.29
Superbet
2.27
Under
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.5%
@ 2.04+0.8%
No
53.5%
@ 1.71-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
No
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.75
888Sport
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.3%@ 6.08+5.0%
3-0
11.3%@ 6.89+4.8%
1-0
8.4%@ 7.65+2.5%
2-1
8.3%@ 8.63+3.1%
4-0
7.8%@ 10.06+3.4%
3-1 ✓
7.6%@ 9.85+3.1%
1-1
6.6%@ 11.50+2.7%
4-1
5.3%@ 14.24+2.1%
Sporting CP goals ↓
Alverca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.4%
6.6%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
2
12%
8.3%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
11%
7.6%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
7.8%
5.3%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sporting CP goals (down), columns = Alverca goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Sporting CP is 1.26 points better than Alverca in terms of average points per game (2.41 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Sporting CP is 1.59 goals better than Alverca in terms of goals scored per game (2.62 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Sporting CP is 0.82 goals better than Alverca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Sporting CP is 17.0 percentage points better than Alverca in terms of average possession (62% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sporting CP
For 6.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 14.0 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alverca
For 5.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting CP
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
10.0
4.9
4.2
5.7
26.6
26.4
26.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
8.7
9.4
8.1
4.1
3.4
4.6
24.9
24.0
25.6
vs Weaker (38)
10.6
10.4
10.8
5.1
4.3
6.1
27.1
27.1
27.2
% over line
52%
52%
52%
60%
50%
71%
79%
72%
87%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
40%
50%
29%
21%
28%
13%
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alverca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
7.7
10.3
4.2
4.1
4.4
23.6
25.5
21.9
vs Stronger (9)
8.2
5.5
10.4
4.3
4.8
4.0
24.9
23.2
26.2
vs Similar (24)
9.1
8.3
10.0
4.9
4.5
5.3
26.9
28.8
24.8
vs Weaker (17)
9.6
8.2
11.0
3.3
3.0
3.6
16.9
20.0
14.7
% over line
47%
26%
68%
60%
60%
60%
64%
70%
59%
% under line
53%
74%
32%
40%
40%
40%
36%
30%
41%
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.3
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
10.0
Academico Viseu
9.9
Casa Pia
9.7
Arouca
9.1
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Alverca
9.0
Estrela
9.0
FC Porto
8.9
Santa Clara
8.9
Guimaraes
8.7
Maritimo
8.2
SC Braga
8.2
Moreirense
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.0
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.8
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.6
Nacional
5.5
FC Porto
5.4
Guimaraes
5.4
Famalicao
5.4
Sporting CP
5.3
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Rio Ave
5.1
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.1
Santa Clara
30.2
Estrela
30.1
Moreirense
29.3
Casa Pia
29.1
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Nacional
27.2
Estoril
27.0
Rio Ave
27.0
Sporting CP
26.7
Arouca
26.1
FC Porto
25.8
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
24.8
SC Braga
24.3
Alverca
23.6
Maritimo
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.6%
@ 1.71+2.5%
Under 9.5
43.4%
@ 2.01-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.8%
@ 1.33+4.4%
Under 3.5
28.2%
@ 2.75-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
Under
Superbet
2.75
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
76.6%
Under 21.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sporting CP or Draw✓ Hit
94.9%
Avg Implied 91.5% · @ 1.04
Edge
+3.4%
80%
14%
6%
covers Sporting CP + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betano
1.04
Sporting CP or Alverca✓ Hit
87.7%
Avg Implied 86.2% · @ 1.10
Edge
+1.5%
80%
14%
6%
covers Sporting CP + Alverca
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Draw or Alverca✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.24
Edge
-4.9%
80%
14%
6%
covers Draw + Alverca
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.88
Marathonbet
4.45
Betano
4.40
Betfair
4.33
888Sport
4.20
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.7%
@ 1.04+4.4%
Under
5.3%
@ 9.74-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Under
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
Sporting CP over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
79.2%
@ 1.28+6.3%
Under
20.8%
@ 3.44-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.81
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Sporting CP over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.91+7.6%
Under
43.6%
@ 1.82-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
888Sport
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Betfair
1.83
Sporting CP over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
34.0%
@ 3.29+5.6%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.30-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Marathonbet
3.32
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Alverca over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
48.6%
@ 1.94+0.7%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.79-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.85
888Sport
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Alverca over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 5.71-2.0%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.12+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
888Sport
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
Under
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Alverca over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 18.56-2.2%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Alverca over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 65.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
65.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sporting CP, so a minus line means Sporting CP give that many goals of a start and Alverca receive them. At -1, Sporting CP must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sporting CP win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sporting CP)Actual: Draw
Sporting CP -2
42.8%
@ 2.50+7.0%
Draw -2
21.5%
@ 3.81-2.0%
Alverca +2
35.7%
@ 2.20-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Unibet
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Handicap -1 (Sporting CP)Actual: Sporting CP
Sporting CP -1
64.3%
@ 1.59+7.9%
Draw -1
18.3%
@ 3.96-4.4%
Alverca +1
17.4%
@ 4.30-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.80
Away
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Handicap +1 (Sporting CP)Actual: Sporting CP
Sporting CP +1
94.9%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Draw +1
3.7%
@ 14.00-3.0%
Alverca -1
1.4%
@ 34.00-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Bet365
34.00
Betfair
34.00
Handicap +2 (Sporting CP)Actual: Sporting CP
Sporting CP +2
98.6%
Draw +2
1.1%
Alverca -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sporting CP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
1.06
0.19
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.09
0.35
1.42
0.17
0.73
0.55
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alverca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.63
0.21
0.43
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.43
0.00
1.00
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.44
0.30
0.40
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.23+5.2%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 3.82-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.85
William Hil
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.8%
@ 2.14+2.2%
Under 1.5
54.2%
@ 1.66-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.24
SBO
2.19
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
Under
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
SBO
1.68
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.5%
@ 4.63+1.4%
Under 2.5
78.5%
@ 1.17-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
Betano
4.80
Superbet
4.60
William Hil
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
75.1%
@ 1.34+6.1%
Under
24.9%
@ 2.99-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Betano
2.80
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.6%
@ 2.72+3.4%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.41-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.85
Pinnacle
2.84
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.75
Superbet
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 6.49-2.2%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.08+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Under
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Alverca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
24.8%
@ 3.55-1.4%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.26+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.07
Superbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Under
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Alverca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 13.50-2.4%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Alverca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 70.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
70.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sporting CP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.19
0.75
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.57
1.00
0.75
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.30
0.74
1.25
0.75
1.36
0.73
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alverca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.93
1.00
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.29
0.50
2.50
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.94
1.10
0.90
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
86.8%
Under 0.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.1%
Under 1.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.7%
Under 2.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
81.1%
Under
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
94.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betano
1.04
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
94.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
94.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.08
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.07
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
87.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.2%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
85.6%
1.12
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
84.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Unibet
1.08
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.9%
1.23
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home win
80.2%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Dafabet
1.22
10Bet
1.21
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
79.2%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
78.5%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.2%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
1.34
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 2H goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.8%
1.33
Superbet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
70.5%
1.24
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Betfair
1.25
-4.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sporting CP
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fotis Ioannidis67%
Flávio Gonçalves50%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Luis Javier Suárez25%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Geny Catamo25%
Sergi Altimira25%
Rui Silva0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Javier Suárez50%
Geny Catamo50%
Gonçalo Inácio33%
Jesse Derry33%
Sergi Altimira25%
Fotis Ioannidis0%
Rui Silva0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Flávio Gonçalves0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Geny Catamo50%
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Issa Doumbia25%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Geny Catamo0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Alverca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vivaldo50%
Ian Luccas25%
Marco Essimi0%
Nabil Touaizi0%
Matheus Mendes0%
Figueiredo0%
Steven Baseya0%
Isaac James0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Yaya Bojang0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Davy Gui0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Davy Gui67%
Yaya Bojang50%
Nabil Touaizi25%
Matheus Mendes25%
Figueiredo25%
Vivaldo25%
Marco Essimi0%
Ian Luccas0%
Steven Baseya0%
Isaac James0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac James50%
Rayan Lucas33%
Marco Essimi0%
Nabil Touaizi0%
Matheus Mendes0%
Ian Luccas0%
Figueiredo0%
Steven Baseya0%
Vivaldo0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Yaya Bojang0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Davy Gui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nabil Touaizi25%
Ian Luccas25%
Vivaldo25%
Marco Essimi0%
Matheus Mendes0%
Figueiredo0%
Steven Baseya0%
Isaac James0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Yaya Bojang0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Davy Gui0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Sporting CP's squad is €374m more valuable than Alverca's (€414m vs €39m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Sporting CP's attack is €132m more valuable than Alverca's (€146m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Sporting CP's midfield is €85m more valuable than Alverca's (€91m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Sporting CP's defence is €158m more valuable than Alverca's (€176m vs €18m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Estoril
Casa Pia