ST Johnstone vs Celtic Result & Analysis

Celtic are the clear favourite, with the model assigning an 81% chance of a win and a 5% chance for ST Johnstone to come away with a victory. The prediction that the most likely result is an away win is reinforced by Celtic’s strong away form - they average 2.5 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded against weaker opponents - while ST Johnstone, playing at home against a stronger side, manage just 0.4 goals and concede 2.0 on average. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Celtic, with a 13.2% probability. The model also estimates a 22% chance of exactly three goals in total. Home win probability sits at 5%, draw at 14%, and away win at 81%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 85.3%, Away win at 81.1% with a 3% edge, Over 2.5 cards at 80.3%, Over 8.5 corners at 75.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 74.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 73.7%, and Over 19.5 fouls at 73.1% (miss). ST Johnstone’s recent form of two straight defeats and Celtic’s recent win give the narrative that the hosts are vulnerable while the visitors are on a strong run.

The win for Celtic extends their strong run, with the final score 1-3 confirming the away victory. The model’s favourite, an Away win, was correct, and its probability of 81.1% matched the outcome. The suggested picks were largely accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit at 85.3%, the Away win hit at 81.1%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 80.3%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 75.3%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 74.2%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 73.7%, while Over 19.5 fouls missed at 73.1%. The most likely score of 0-2 at 13.2% was not the result, but the overall model predictions proved highly reliable.