PythiaFootballBETA
St. Truiden is coming off a draw against Cercle Brugge, where the score was 3-3, and KV Mechelen is reeling from two consecutive defeats. However, the numbers suggest a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and the most likely total being 3. The home side, St. Truiden, has been scoring 1.4 goals per game at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.0 goals. KV Mechelen, meanwhile, has been scoring 1.4 goals per game away against similar opponents, but conceding 2.6 goals.
St. Truiden is the favourite to win, with a 54% chance of a home win, followed by a 23% chance of a draw and 22% for KV Mechelen to win. The model's selection is a home win. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.6%. The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection with a probability of 84.6%. In terms of outright selections, St. Truiden has a 54% chance of winning, a 23% chance of drawing, and KV Mechelen has a 22% chance of winning.
The win extends their run for St. Truiden, who have now secured a 3-0 victory over KV Mechelen. The final score confirms the actual result, a home win, which was the model's selection, picked with a pre-match probability of 54%. The model's call was correct. The suggested picks largely came in, with 'Over 1.5' goals hitting with a pre-match probability of 84.6%. The model's selection of an over 1.5 goals match was also correct.
St. Truiden| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 1.14 | 1.56 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.00 | 1.41 | 1.62 | 1.38 | 0.44 | 1.44 |
| vs Similar (10) | 2.20 | 0.90 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
KV Mechelen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.67 | 1.12 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 1.00 | 1.43 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.86 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.36 | 2.18 | 1.33 | 1.83 | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| KV Mechelen goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 11% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
St. TruidenKV MechelenSt. Truiden| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 21.3 | 20.8 | 21.8 |
| vs Stronger (21) | 10.8 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 19.4 | 19.3 | 19.5 |
| vs Similar (19) | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 24.2 | 22.5 | 25.5 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 8.5 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 19.8 | 21.3 | 17.5 |
| % over line | 60% | 60% | 60% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 50% | 48% | 52% |
| % under line | 40% | 40% | 40% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 50% | 52% | 48% |
KV Mechelen| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.6 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 10.0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 23.4 | 24.0 | 22.8 |
| vs Similar (21) | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 20.7 | 21.5 | 19.9 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 10.5 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 21.2 | 19.7 | 23.0 |
| % over line | 56% | 62% | 50% | 52% | 54% | 50% | 46% | 54% | 38% |
| % under line | 44% | 38% | 50% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 54% | 46% | 62% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/12/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 21/02/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/11/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/05/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/04/24 | A | 2-3 | |
| 03/12/23 | A | 0-2 |
St. Truiden| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-3 |
KV Mechelen| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 6-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 | St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 |  Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 |  Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 |  KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 | KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 |  Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |