The encounter between Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away triumph. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring match, yet the most probable total is two goals, with a 25% chance of that outcome. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 13.1% probability. Brestois, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Toulouse, on the road, nets 1.58 and concedes 1.5. Home win probability sits at 40%, draw at 28%, and away win at 33%. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.7% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (96.6% with a 1% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.4% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.6% with a 2% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (93.9% with a 1% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (92.8%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Stade Brestois 29 at 40 percent, failed to materialise as the match ended 2-2, a draw that snapped the team’s recent string of two draws and one loss. The model’s prediction was therefore incorrect. The match was a low-scoring affair, with the total goals tally of four well below the expected 2.8 and the most likely scoreline of 1-1. Every suggested pick proved accurate: Under 7.5 (98.8 percent), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3 percent), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.7 percent), Under 6.5 (96.6 percent), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.4 percent), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.6 percent), Away under 3.5 goals (93.9 percent), and Home under 3.5 goals (92.8 percent) all hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.65
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.77
Pinnacle
2.72
Marathonbet
2.72
Dafabet
2.70
Betano
2.67
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.32
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.44
Pinnacle
3.41
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Toulouse win✗ Miss
32.8%
Avg Implied 35.6% · @ 2.66
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
1xBet
2.76
Pinnacle
2.72
Marathonbet
2.71
Superbet
2.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stade Brestois 29
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.57
1.43
1.21
0.94
1.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.33
0.75
0.75
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.42
1.68
1.70
1.40
1.11
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.43
1.00
1.20
1.60
1.67
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.12
0.80
2.00
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.24
1.11
0.89
1.58
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
@ 1.30+5.3%
Under 1.5
22.2%
@ 3.42-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.78
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
@ 1.95+3.8%
Under 2.5
47.3%
@ 1.86-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
SBO
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Under
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.5%
@ 3.31+2.0%
Under 3.5
69.5%
@ 1.31-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Betano
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.5%
@ 1.72+3.2%
No
42.5%
@ 2.04-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Unibet
1.73
No
Betfair
2.15
1xBet
2.07
Superbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 5.93+5.6%
2-1
8.8%@ 9.17+3.9%
1-2
7.9%@ 9.10+3.0%
1-0
7.9%@ 8.10+2.3%
0-0
7.4%@ 9.02+2.4%
0-1
6.9%@ 8.11+1.4%
2-0
6.6%@ 12.45+3.1%
2-2 ✓
5.8%@ 12.55+2.2%
Stade Brestois 29 goals ↓
Toulouse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.9%
5.4%
2.4%
0.8%
1
7.9%
13%
7.9%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.6%
8.8%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.2%
4.3%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stade Brestois 29 goals (down), columns = Toulouse goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Stade Brestois 29 is 0.19 points worse than Toulouse in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Stade Brestois 29 is 0.16 goals worse than Toulouse in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Stade Brestois 29 is 0.22 goals worse than Toulouse in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Stade Brestois 29 is 1.1 percentage points better than Toulouse in terms of average possession (43% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stade Brestois 29
For 3.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 9.9 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Toulouse
For 3.2 · Against 5.7 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 9.1 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stade Brestois 29
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.3
3.6
3.5
3.7
24.8
24.2
25.3
vs Stronger (15)
8.9
8.3
9.5
2.9
3.7
2.2
23.5
25.3
21.9
vs Similar (33)
10.2
9.5
10.9
3.9
3.4
4.4
25.4
23.7
27.1
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
-
8.0
3.5
-
3.5
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
49%
43%
54%
52%
50%
54%
69%
65%
73%
% under line
51%
57%
46%
48%
50%
46%
31%
35%
27%
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.2
9.3
4.3
4.2
4.4
25.4
26.2
24.6
vs Stronger (15)
9.1
8.6
9.7
4.2
4.0
4.4
24.9
26.0
23.6
vs Similar (34)
9.3
9.5
9.2
4.4
4.5
4.4
25.5
26.3
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
10.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
49%
54%
44%
66%
62%
69%
82%
79%
84%
% under line
51%
46%
56%
34%
38%
31%
18%
21%
16%
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.4
Lens
10.3
Lyon
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.5
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Havre
9.1
Le Mans
9.1
Angers
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.4
Rennes
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Lorient
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Nice
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.2
Le Mans
27.1
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.3
Lyon
25.3
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Lille
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.6
Strasbourg
23.6
Monaco
23.5
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.0
Angers
22.6
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.3%
@ 1.95-4.6%
Under 9.5
56.7%
@ 1.79+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.95
Under
Unibet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.7%
@ 1.46-8.3%
Under 3.5
44.3%
@ 2.58+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.67
Betano
2.50
Unibet
2.40
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.1%
@ 1.33-2.0%
Under 21.5
33.9%
@ 2.85+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
2.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stade Brestois 29 or Draw✓ Hit
65.1%
Avg Implied 64.3% · @ 1.46
Edge
+0.8%
40%
28%
33%
covers Stade Brestois 29 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Stade Brestois 29 or Toulouse✗ Miss
73.5%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.31
Edge
+1.8%
40%
28%
33%
covers Stade Brestois 29 + Toulouse
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Draw or Toulouse✓ Hit
61.4%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.47
Edge
-2.6%
40%
28%
33%
covers Draw + Toulouse
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.7%
@ 1.29+6.5%
Under
21.3%
@ 3.35-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.63
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.8%
@ 2.44+7.5%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.52-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 5.73+4.1%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.11-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 13.67+0.2%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.02-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Toulouse over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.8%
@ 1.29+4.9%
Under
23.2%
@ 3.32-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.64
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Toulouse over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.0%
@ 2.46+4.9%
Under
57.0%
@ 1.51-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Toulouse over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 5.70+1.9%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.11-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
Superbet
5.60
Unibet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Toulouse over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 13.75-0.8%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stade Brestois 29, so a minus line means Stade Brestois 29 give that many goals of a start and Toulouse receive them. At -1, Stade Brestois 29 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stade Brestois 29 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.33
0.40
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.20
0.80
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.33
0.22
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.6%
@ 1.40+6.5%
Under 0.5
26.4%
@ 2.85-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.11
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.9%
@ 2.82+4.8%
Under 1.5
62.1%
@ 1.40-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 7.23+0.4%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.07-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.6%
@ 2.11+4.5%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.66-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Unibet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 6.62-0.2%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.07+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 17.25-1.9%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Toulouse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.4%
@ 2.11+1.4%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.66-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Toulouse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 6.62-2.1%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.07+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.75
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Toulouse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 17.25-3.8%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stade Brestois 29
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.64
0.57
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.56
0.00
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.89
0.90
0.70
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.25
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.71
0.78
0.67
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.0%
@ 1.24+2.7%
Under 0.5
22.0%
@ 3.79-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.84
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.3%
@ 2.13+4.0%
Under 1.5
51.7%
@ 1.69-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Under
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
10Bet
1.68
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.4%
@ 4.55-1.2%
Under 2.5
80.6%
@ 1.18+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.4%
@ 1.77+1.0%
Under
46.6%
@ 1.94-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.5%
@ 4.75+1.9%
Under
78.5%
@ 1.15-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 12.12-2.3%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Toulouse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.9%
@ 1.77+0.5%
Under
47.1%
@ 1.95-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Toulouse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.4%
@ 4.76-3.1%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.15+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.85
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Toulouse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 12.12-4.4%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.5%
1.03
Superbet
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.07
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.15
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.1%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.8%
1.11
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.4%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.5%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.7%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.3%
1.40
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
Unibet
1.36
-
+12.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
1.27
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.7%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.8%
1.30
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.8%
1.29
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.4%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.14
-
-
-
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.40
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.5%
1.31
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
+1.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stade Brestois 29 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Romain Del Castillo27%
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Remy Labeau Lascary21%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Junior Dina Ebimbe15%
Mama Baldé11%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart4%
Daouda Guindo4%
Pathé Mboup4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ludovic Ajorque28%
Kamory Doumbia25%
Michel Diaz24%
Brendan Chardonnet23%
Pathé Mboup21%
Soumaila Coulibaly19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Daouda Guindo15%
Hugo Magnetti15%
Kenny Lala15%
Junior Dina Ebimbe11%
Grégoire Coudert8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Mama Baldé0%
Bradley Locko0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Romain Del Castillo12%
Mama Baldé11%
Brendan Chardonnet10%
Kenny Lala9%
Bradley Locko9%
Daouda Guindo4%
Remy Labeau Lascary4%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Joris Chotard3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Junior Dina Ebimbe0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Michel Diaz0%
Pathé Mboup0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ludovic Ajorque19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Mama Baldé16%
Kamory Doumbia8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Pathé Mboup7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Junior Dina Ebimbe4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Hugo Magnetti0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Daouda Guindo0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Toulouse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Tapé33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Schmidt67%
R. Nicolaisen33%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
S. Hidalgo33%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hidalgo67%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
Julián Vignolo33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
C. Tapé0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Stade Brestois 29's squad is €51m less valuable than Toulouse's (€64m vs €115m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Stade Brestois 29's attack is €5m less valuable than Toulouse's (€25m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Stade Brestois 29's midfield is €20m less valuable than Toulouse's (€20m vs €39m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Stade Brestois 29's defence is €27m less valuable than Toulouse's (€19m vs €46m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Nice
Auxerre