The contest between Standard Liege and Antwerp is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. Home win probability is 38%, a draw 29% and an away win 32%. The expected total goals sit at 2.5, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% chance. Standard Liege, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Antwerp, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 84.2%, Under 3.5 at 75.4%, and Over 1.5 at 72.9%. Both sides are on a recent run of form: Standard Liege are on a two-game winning streak after a 2-1 win over OH Leuven, whereas Antwerp are coming off a 1-4 defeat to St. Truiden. The match remains finely balanced, but the slight edge to Standard Liege makes a home victory the most likely outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Antwerp turned a 2-game winning run for Standard Liege into a 2-point victory, ending the home side’s form streak. The pre-match favourite was a Home win at 38 percent, but the model’s call was wrong as the away team secured a 0-2 win. The model’s selections were all correct: Over 2.5 cards hit at 84.2 percent, Under 3.5 hit at 75.4 percent, and Over 1.5 hit at 72.9 percent. The match finished 0-2, an away win that surprised the predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Standard Liege win✗ Miss
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Antwerp win✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Standard Liege
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.27
1.73
1.27
1.40
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
1.83
1.33
2.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.15
1.31
1.38
1.00
0.80
1.80
vs Weaker (11)
1.91
1.18
2.33
1.67
1.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Antwerp
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.20
1.38
1.19
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.50
1.17
1.67
1.00
1.38
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.86
1.50
0.75
1.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2 ✓
5.8%
Standard Liege goals ↓
Antwerp goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
8.4%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.4%
14%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.0%
8.4%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Standard Liege goals (down), columns = Antwerp goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Genk
2.10
Club Brugge KV
1.87
Standard Liege
1.77
Anderlecht
1.70
Gent
1.67
Antwerp
1.63
St. Truiden
1.57
Kortrijk
1.43
Charleroi
1.40
Mouscron
1.33
Zulte Waregem
1.10
Eupen
1.07
Cercle Brugge
0.93
Oostende
0.90
SK Beveren
0.90
Lokeren
0.67
Standard Liege is 0.13 points better than Antwerp in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Club Brugge KV
2.13
Genk
2.10
Gent
1.77
Zulte Waregem
1.63
Anderlecht
1.63
Standard Liege
1.63
St. Truiden
1.57
Kortrijk
1.47
Charleroi
1.43
Antwerp
1.30
SK Beveren
1.23
Cercle Brugge
1.17
Eupen
1.13
Mouscron
1.10
Oostende
0.97
Lokeren
0.93
Standard Liege is 0.33 goals better than Antwerp in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Genk
1.03
Club Brugge KV
1.07
Mouscron
1.10
Anderlecht
1.13
Antwerp
1.13
Standard Liege
1.17
St. Truiden
1.20
Kortrijk
1.40
Charleroi
1.43
Gent
1.50
SK Beveren
1.67
Oostende
1.73
Lokeren
1.77
Eupen
1.90
Cercle Brugge
1.97
Zulte Waregem
2.00
Standard Liege is 0.03 goals worse than Antwerp in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Standard Liege
For 5.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Antwerp
For 6.2 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Standard Liege
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.1
9.4
4.7
4.8
4.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
10.2
10.6
9.8
3.5
3.6
3.4
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
9.9
9.7
10.2
5.5
4.6
6.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
9.2
10.4
8.6
4.5
6.2
3.7
-
-
-
% over line
49%
48%
50%
66%
60%
72%
-
-
-
% under line
51%
52%
50%
34%
40%
28%
-
-
-
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Antwerp
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (43)
9.8
9.6
9.9
4.6
4.5
4.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
8.0
8.0
5.3
4.5
7.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
9.8
9.9
9.6
5.1
4.9
5.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
10.1
9.7
10.4
4.0
4.2
3.7
-
-
-
% over line
53%
59%
48%
65%
64%
67%
-
-
-
% under line
47%
41%
52%
35%
36%
33%
-
-
-
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kortrijk
11.8
Gent
11.0
Anderlecht
10.8
Eupen
10.7
Lokeren
10.7
SK Beveren
10.5
Genk
10.4
Cercle Brugge
10.3
Club Brugge KV
10.2
Oostende
10.1
Zulte Waregem
10.0
Antwerp
9.8
Standard Liege
9.7
Mouscron
9.7
St. Truiden
9.4
Charleroi
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Standard Liege
5.5
Gent
5.5
Cercle Brugge
5.4
St. Truiden
5.2
Oostende
5.0
Eupen
4.9
Zulte Waregem
4.9
Mouscron
4.8
Genk
4.7
Charleroi
4.7
Antwerp
4.6
SK Beveren
4.5
Anderlecht
4.4
Lokeren
4.3
Club Brugge KV
4.3
Kortrijk
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.3%
Under 9.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.1%
Under 3.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Standard Liege
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.80
0.67
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.62
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.55
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Antwerp
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.88
0.44
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.64
0.83
0.83
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.36
0.88
0.25
0.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Standard Liege over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Standard Liege
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
0.93
0.60
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.85
0.75
0.50
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.64
1.33
0.67
1.25
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Antwerp
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.50
0.75
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.86
0.33
0.83
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Standard Liege over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Standard Liege · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dennis Eckert Ayensa50%
Salieu Drammeh33%
Casper Nielsen25%
Adnane Abid25%
Bernard Nguene25%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Marlon Fossey0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Alexis Trouillet0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Matthieu Epolo0%
Gustav Mortensen0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Ryan Fosso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matthieu Epolo50%
Ryan Fosso33%
Casper Nielsen25%
Alexis Trouillet25%
Gustav Mortensen25%
Adnane Abid25%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Dennis Eckert Ayensa0%
Marlon Fossey0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Casper Nielsen50%
Adnane Abid50%
Marlon Fossey25%
Bernard Nguene25%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Dennis Eckert Ayensa0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Alexis Trouillet0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Matthieu Epolo0%
Gustav Mortensen0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bernard Nguene75%
Salieu Drammeh33%
Dennis Eckert Ayensa25%
Adnane Abid25%
Casper Nielsen0%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Marlon Fossey0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Alexis Trouillet0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Matthieu Epolo0%
Gustav Mortensen0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Antwerp · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michael Frey33%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Schelfhout67%
Michael Frey0%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thibo Somers33%
Michael Frey0%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Frey33%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
CB (26)
€40m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Standard Liege's squad is €21m more valuable than Antwerp's (€54m vs €33m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
SL (9)
€14m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
SB (9)
€4m
Standard Liege's attack is €6m more valuable than Antwerp's (€14m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
ANT (4)
€10m
SL (7)
€8m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Standard Liege's midfield is €1m less valuable than Antwerp's (€8m vs €10m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
Standard Liege's defence is €17m more valuable than Antwerp's (€31m vs €14m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Genk
Club Brugge KV
Anderlecht
Gent
St. Truiden
Kortrijk
Charleroi
Zulte Waregem
Cercle Brugge
SK Beveren
Oostende