Strasbourg’s recent form has dipped after a 0-4 loss to Marseille, yet their home attack averages 1.92 goals while conceding 1.42 against similarly strong teams. Lens, on a three-game winning streak, has been more prolific away, scoring 2.27 and conceding 1.45 on average. The model predicts a 45% chance of an away win, 31% for a home win and 25% for a draw, making Lens the favoured result. The expected total is 3.3 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.8% chance. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.2% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (95.7% with a 1% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.7% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.5% with a 3% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (91.8% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Strasbourg snatching a 2-1 victory after a win that extended their recent run. The pre-match favourite, Lens, had a 46% chance of triumph, yet the model’s pick was wrong. The final score of 2-1 confirmed a home win, contrary to the 46% away win probability. All of the model’s other selections hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7%, Under 6.5 at 95.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 93.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.7%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 91.8%. The match delivered a tight, low-scoring affair that matched the model’s confidence in the total-goals range, but the predicted outcome proved incorrect.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Strasbourg win✓ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.75
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.95
Betfair
3.90
Unibet
3.90
Bet365
3.90
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.69
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.86
Dafabet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.81
BetVictor
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
Lens win✗ Miss
46.2%
Avg Implied 48.9% · @ 1.95
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.04
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.96
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Strasbourg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.40
1.75
1.38
1.79
1.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.48
1.92
1.42
1.56
1.56
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
1.12
1.33
1.00
2.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
1.13
2.47
0.93
2.40
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
2.39
1.33
2.57
1.14
2.27
1.45
vs Weaker (11)
2.73
0.73
2.71
0.57
2.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.18+5.7%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 4.70-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Unibet
4.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.61+5.9%
Under 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.32-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Unibet
1.63
SBO
1.63
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.9%
@ 2.47+4.6%
Under 3.5
57.1%
@ 1.53-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.2%
@ 1.53+5.3%
No
33.8%
@ 2.38-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Unibet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
No
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 6.82+4.1%
1-2
9.1%@ 7.81+3.3%
2-1 ✓
7.2%@ 11.19+3.1%
2-2
6.7%@ 10.95+2.6%
0-2
6.2%@ 10.51+1.9%
1-3
5.7%@ 12.84+2.2%
0-1
5.6%@ 9.01+0.6%
0-0
4.5%@ 13.29+1.1%
Strasbourg goals ↓
Lens goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
5.6%
6.2%
3.9%
1.8%
1
4.2%
11%
9.1%
5.7%
2.7%
2
3.8%
7.2%
6.7%
4.2%
2.0%
3
1.9%
3.5%
3.3%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Strasbourg goals (down), columns = Lens goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Strasbourg is 0.50 points worse than Lens in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Strasbourg is 0.24 goals worse than Lens in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Strasbourg is 0.35 goals worse than Lens in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Strasbourg is 2.6 percentage points better than Lens in terms of average possession (54% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Strasbourg
For 3.9 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.0 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lens
For 7.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Strasbourg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.3
8.7
4.1
3.7
4.5
23.6
21.8
25.5
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
11.0
5.0
2.5
2.0
3.0
20.5
14.0
27.0
vs Similar (35)
9.3
9.6
8.9
4.0
3.9
4.2
23.2
21.9
24.6
vs Weaker (13)
8.2
7.8
8.6
4.6
3.5
5.6
25.2
22.7
27.4
% over line
44%
50%
38%
58%
46%
71%
70%
69%
71%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
42%
54%
29%
30%
31%
29%
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.7
9.9
4.2
3.8
4.7
25.0
25.2
24.7
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
15.0
12.0
18.0
vs Similar (32)
10.9
11.4
10.4
4.4
3.9
4.8
24.4
24.6
24.2
vs Weaker (16)
9.3
9.4
9.1
4.2
4.0
4.6
27.4
27.9
26.7
% over line
52%
54%
50%
62%
50%
75%
68%
73%
62%
% under line
48%
46%
50%
38%
50%
25%
32%
27%
38%
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.4
Lens
10.3
Lyon
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.5
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Havre
9.1
Le Mans
9.1
Angers
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.4
Rennes
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Lorient
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Nice
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.2
Le Mans
27.1
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.3
Lyon
25.3
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Lille
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.6
Strasbourg
23.6
Monaco
23.5
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.0
Angers
22.6
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.9%
@ 1.86+4.4%
Under 9.5
45.1%
@ 1.89-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.98
Bet365
1.98
Superbet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.8%
@ 1.56-1.1%
Under 3.5
41.2%
@ 2.33+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.51
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.27
Unibet
2.25
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
59.3%
@ 1.38-6.4%
Under 21.5
40.7%
@ 2.65+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Under
1xBet
2.65
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Strasbourg or Draw✓ Hit
61.3%
Avg Implied 50.8% · @ 1.85
Edge
+10.5%
29%
24%
46%
covers Strasbourg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.93
Unibet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Strasbourg or Lens✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.26
Edge
-0.2%
29%
24%
46%
covers Strasbourg + Lens
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Lens✗ Miss
64.3%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.26
Edge
-10.3%
29%
24%
46%
covers Draw + Lens
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Strasbourg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.9%
@ 1.31+8.0%
Under
21.1%
@ 3.20-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.39
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Strasbourg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.1%
@ 2.55+9.3%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.48-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
Under
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Strasbourg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.5%
@ 6.04+5.1%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.10-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
1xBet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.15
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Strasbourg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 14.92+0.9%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.02-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Lens over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.3%
@ 1.13-1.7%
Under
19.7%
@ 5.14+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
Lens over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.3%
@ 1.72-6.2%
Under
51.7%
@ 2.06+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Betano
2.05
Lens over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.3%
@ 3.25-6.4%
Under
77.7%
@ 1.31+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Lens over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 6.89-5.3%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.08+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Strasbourg, so a minus line means Strasbourg give that many goals of a start and Lens receive them. At -1, Strasbourg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Strasbourg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Strasbourg)Actual: Lens
Strasbourg -2
7.0%
@ 18.00+1.9%
Draw -2
10.9%
@ 10.50+2.1%
Lens +2
82.1%
@ 1.06-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
Superbet
17.00
Unibet
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Handicap -1 (Strasbourg)Actual: Draw
Strasbourg -1
17.9%
@ 7.88+6.4%
Draw -1
17.9%
@ 5.50+1.4%
Lens +1
64.3%
@ 1.26-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.40
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Away
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Handicap +1 (Strasbourg)Actual: Strasbourg
Strasbourg +1
61.3%
@ 1.83+12.0%
Draw +1
18.7%
@ 3.80-5.1%
Lens -1
20.0%
@ 3.38-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.83
10Bet
1.77
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Away
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.15
Handicap +2 (Strasbourg)Actual: Strasbourg
Strasbourg +2
80.0%
@ 1.29+10.0%
Draw +2
11.8%
@ 5.42-4.8%
Lens -2
8.1%
@ 6.72-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.25
Draw
Superbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Away
10Bet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Unibet
6.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Strasbourg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.94
0.56
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.52
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.07
0.40
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.78
1.14
0.71
0.91
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.18
1.14
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.0%
@ 1.30+2.7%
Under 0.5
25.0%
@ 3.38-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.6%
@ 2.37-0.1%
Under 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.56+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 5.33-3.9%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.13+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Superbet
5.35
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Strasbourg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.6%
@ 2.19+4.1%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.62-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.17
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Strasbourg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 7.03-1.4%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.07+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Strasbourg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 18.50-3.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Lens over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.3%
@ 1.71-3.1%
Under
48.7%
@ 2.05+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
2.04
Lens over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.4%
@ 4.40-5.6%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.17+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.40
Unibet
4.35
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Lens over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 10.88-5.6%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Strasbourg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.87
0.81
0.81
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.95
1.08
0.92
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.62
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.57
1.40
0.53
1.47
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.39
0.56
1.43
0.43
1.36
0.64
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
0.55
1.57
0.57
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.6%
@ 1.16+1.2%
Under 0.5
18.4%
@ 4.77-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.80
Betano
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.4%
@ 1.80-3.7%
Under 1.5
51.6%
@ 1.96+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
William Hil
1.80
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.1%
@ 3.46-3.9%
Under 2.5
76.9%
@ 1.28+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.36
Under
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Strasbourg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.6%
@ 1.81+1.1%
Under
47.4%
@ 1.91-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.88
Strasbourg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
17.0%
@ 4.89-2.0%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.15+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Strasbourg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 12.75-3.1%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Lens over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
60.2%
@ 1.47-3.1%
Under
39.8%
@ 2.54+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Lens over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.2%
@ 3.16-7.2%
Under
77.8%
@ 1.31+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Lens over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 7.93-5.4%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.05+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
8.20
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.05
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.6%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
82.1%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.05
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.3%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.0%
1.29
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.25
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.9%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.4%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.22
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.7%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.29
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.0%
1.30
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.4%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.3%
1.53
1xBet
1.53
-
-
-
-
+12.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Strasbourg · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joaquin Panichelli44%
Emmanuel Emegha33%
Martial Godo30%
Sebastian Nanasi26%
Julio Enciso24%
Dilane Bakwa20%
Diego Moreira12%
Abdoul Ouattara9%
Maxi Oyedele7%
Valentín Barco7%
Guéla Doué6%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw5%
Kendry Páez5%
Ismael Doukouré5%
Samir El Mourabet4%
Andrew Omobamidele2%
Ben Chilwell0%
Mamadou Sarr0%
Junior Mwanga0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Félix Lemaréchal0%
Mike Penders0%
Rafael Luis0%
Gessime Yassine0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Mathis Amougou0%
Lucas Høgsberg0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Tyrese Noubissie0%
Yaya Diémé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yaya Diémé67%
Maxi Oyedele29%
Emmanuel Emegha28%
Tyrese Noubissie25%
Diego Moreira24%
Mamadou Sarr22%
Valentín Barco21%
Guéla Doué21%
Andrew Omobamidele17%
Ismael Doukouré16%
Mathis Amougou16%
Ben Chilwell15%
Samir El Mourabet15%
Junior Mwanga12%
Rabby Nzingoula12%
Mike Penders10%
Kendry Páez10%
Martial Godo9%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw8%
Joaquin Panichelli8%
Lucas Høgsberg8%
Félix Lemaréchal6%
Rafael Luis6%
Gessime Yassine5%
Julio Enciso5%
Abdoul Ouattara5%
Sebastian Nanasi3%
Dilane Bakwa0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dilane Bakwa40%
Guéla Doué21%
Diego Moreira17%
Valentín Barco16%
Sebastian Nanasi15%
Julio Enciso14%
Félix Lemaréchal12%
Martial Godo11%
Emmanuel Emegha11%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw10%
Ben Chilwell9%
Joaquin Panichelli8%
Rafael Luis6%
Gessime Yassine5%
Ismael Doukouré5%
Samir El Mourabet4%
Andrew Omobamidele0%
Mamadou Sarr0%
Junior Mwanga0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Maxi Oyedele0%
Mike Penders0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Mathis Amougou0%
Lucas Høgsberg0%
Kendry Páez0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Tyrese Noubissie0%
Yaya Diémé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joaquin Panichelli38%
Julio Enciso29%
Félix Lemaréchal19%
Martial Godo18%
Junior Mwanga12%
Emmanuel Emegha11%
Sebastian Nanasi9%
Valentín Barco7%
Gessime Yassine5%
Abdoul Ouattara5%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw3%
Diego Moreira2%
Ismael Doukouré2%
Ben Chilwell0%
Dilane Bakwa0%
Andrew Omobamidele0%
Guéla Doué0%
Mamadou Sarr0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Maxi Oyedele0%
Mike Penders0%
Rafael Luis0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Mathis Amougou0%
Lucas Høgsberg0%
Kendry Páez0%
Samir El Mourabet0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Tyrese Noubissie0%
Yaya Diémé0%
Lens · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Odsonne Édouard35%
Florian Thauvin35%
Allan Saint-Maximin31%
Wesley Saïd26%
Abdallah Sima22%
Rayan Fofana17%
Adrien Thomasson11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Amadou Haidara10%
Saud Abdulhamid10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Matthieu Udol8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Malang Sarr0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nidal Čelik33%
Adrien Thomasson31%
Deiver Machado20%
Jonathan Gradit20%
Ruben Aguilar17%
Arthur Masuaku17%
Morgan Guilavogui17%
Florian Thauvin16%
Saud Abdulhamid16%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Mamadou Sangare15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Abdallah Sima11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Malang Sarr10%
Matthieu Udol10%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Anthony Bermont9%
Wesley Saïd9%
Robin Risser8%
Samson Baidoo8%
Florian Sotoca7%
Odsonne Édouard6%
Amadou Haidara0%
Fode Sylla0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Florian Thauvin22%
Matthieu Udol20%
Adrien Thomasson19%
Saud Abdulhamid19%
Andrija Bulatovic18%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Mamadou Sangare12%
Abdallah Sima11%
Amadou Haidara10%
Odsonne Édouard9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Wesley Saïd6%
Florian Sotoca3%
Robin Risser3%
Malang Sarr3%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Morgan Guilavogui0%
Ismaelo Ganiou0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Wesley Saïd32%
Allan Saint-Maximin23%
Florian Thauvin22%
Deiver Machado20%
Odsonne Édouard18%
Matthieu Udol15%
Abdallah Sima11%
Rayan Fofana10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Adrien Thomasson8%
Ismaelo Ganiou7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Malang Sarr5%
Andrija Bulatovic5%
Samson Baidoo4%
Saud Abdulhamid3%
Amadou Haidara0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Ruben Aguilar0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Strasbourg's squad is €117m more valuable than Lens's (€304m vs €187m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Strasbourg's attack is €60m more valuable than Lens's (€112m vs €52m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Strasbourg's midfield is €32m more valuable than Lens's (€56m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Strasbourg's defence is €25m more valuable than Lens's (€136m vs €112m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Marseille
Angers
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre