Sturm Graz is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 75% chance of victory according to the model. The model's high rating is due in part to the home side's strong form at home, where they have averaged 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded against weaker opponents. Meanwhile, Austria Lustenau has struggled away from home, conceding an average of 1.25 goals against stronger opponents. The model predicts a tight match with an expected total of 2.7 goals.
The most likely match result is a home win, with a 74.7% probability. The model's selection for this match is the home win. The most likely score is 2-0 in favour of Sturm Graz, with a probability of 15.8%. The home side's home scoring and conceding rates against weaker opponents are 1.14 and 0.71 goals per match, respectively. The away side's away scoring and conceding rates against stronger opponents are 0.75 and 1.25 goals per match, respectively.
The model's selection for the total goals is Over 1.5, with a 76.1% probability. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 (76.1%), Home win (74.7%), and Under 3.5 (71.1%). The home side has a 75% chance of winning, a 18% chance of drawing, and a 7% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Sturm Graz’s run of five games, ending in a draw, and Austria Lustenau’s similar streak both set the stage for an unexpected stalemate. The final score of 1-1 confirmed a draw, overturning the model’s favourite, a home win at 76 %. The model’s call was therefore wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.8 %; Under 7.5 hit at 99.4 %; Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3 %; Home +2 handicap hit at 98.7 %; Away under 2.5 goals hit at 98.7 %; Under 6.5 hit at 98.0 %; Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9 %; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.8 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each selection was reported once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sturm Graz win✗ Miss
76.2%
Avg Implied 69.1% · @ 1.35
Edge
+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Draw✓ Hit
17.8%
Avg Implied 18.7% · @ 4.98
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.39
Dafabet
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
888Sport
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Austria Lustenau win✗ Miss
6.0%
Avg Implied 12.2% · @ 7.62
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
9.40
Pinnacle
8.02
Betfair
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sturm Graz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.93
1.00
0.64
1.62
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.57
1.25
0.50
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
0.89
1.12
0.62
2.00
1.09
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Lustenau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Austria Lustenau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.97
1.50
0.81
1.07
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.00
1.54
0.85
1.07
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
@ 1.14-5.9%
Under 1.5
24.4%
@ 5.06+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Pinnacle
5.15
888Sport
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.3%
@ 1.50-11.8%
Under 2.5
49.7%
@ 2.45+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.58
Betfair
2.55
888Sport
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
@ 2.26-13.1%
Under 3.5
71.7%
@ 1.60+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Betano
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.64
10Bet
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
35.0%
@ 1.74-18.2%
No
65.0%
@ 1.98+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.76
Betfair
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
No
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Betano
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
16.5%@ 6.99+10.1%
1-0
14.3%@ 7.95+8.6%
3-0
12.1%@ 8.90+7.1%
2-1
8.0%@ 7.73+2.2%
1-1 ✓
8.0%@ 9.13+3.1%
0-0
7.5%@ 15.65+4.7%
4-0
6.7%@ 13.87+3.4%
3-1
5.9%@ 9.74+1.3%
Sturm Graz goals ↓
Austria Lustenau goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
2.6%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
1
14%
8.0%
1.8%
0.3%
0.0%
2
16%
8.0%
2.0%
0.3%
0.0%
3
12%
5.9%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
4
6.7%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sturm Graz goals (down), columns = Austria Lustenau goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
Sturm Graz is 0.60 points better than Austria Lustenau in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
Sturm Graz is 0.20 goals better than Austria Lustenau in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
Sturm Graz is 0.80 goals better than Austria Lustenau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Sturm Graz is 13.2 percentage points better than Austria Lustenau in terms of average possession (55% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sturm Graz
For 6.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Austria Lustenau
For 5.3 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sturm Graz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.1
9.4
4.3
4.5
4.1
24.0
24.7
23.2
vs Stronger (5)
9.8
12.5
8.0
4.2
6.0
3.0
29.2
30.0
28.7
vs Similar (17)
9.5
8.7
10.5
4.4
4.2
4.5
24.2
24.0
24.5
vs Weaker (28)
9.8
10.8
9.0
4.3
4.5
4.1
22.7
24.4
21.2
% over line
52%
59%
46%
56%
55%
57%
72%
73%
71%
% under line
48%
41%
54%
44%
45%
43%
28%
27%
29%
This opponent (Austria Lustenau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Austria Lustenau
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.9
7.5
1.3
1.6
1.0
23.9
23.1
25.0
vs Stronger (6)
9.8
12.7
5.5
3.3
3.5
3.0
22.6
22.0
23.5
vs Similar (43)
8.5
8.5
8.5
1.1
1.3
0.9
24.5
23.7
25.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
56%
17%
16%
23%
8%
73%
78%
67%
% under line
60%
44%
83%
84%
77%
92%
27%
22%
33%
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Vienna
10.3
Lask Linz
10.3
TSV Hartberg
9.9
WSG Wattens
9.8
Sturm Graz
9.7
Wolfsberger AC
9.6
Rapid Vienna
9.6
Austria Lustenau
9.4
Red Bull Salzburg
9.3
Grazer AK
9.1
SCR Altach
8.9
Ried
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.2
Austria Lustenau
4.9
TSV Hartberg
4.7
Sturm Graz
4.7
Grazer AK
4.6
Ried
4.6
Wolfsberger AC
4.6
Austria Vienna
4.4
WSG Wattens
4.4
Rapid Vienna
4.0
Red Bull Salzburg
3.9
Lask Linz
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.8
SCR Altach
23.4
Grazer AK
23.3
Austria Lustenau
23.2
Austria Vienna
22.9
Wolfsberger AC
22.9
Ried
22.5
WSG Wattens
22.4
TSV Hartberg
22.0
Lask Linz
20.7
Red Bull Salzburg
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.6%
@ 1.60-4.3%
Under 9.5
46.4%
@ 2.20+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Unibet
2.32
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.17
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.4%
Under 3.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
51.9%
Under 21.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sturm Graz or Draw✓ Hit
94.0%
Avg Implied 87.4% · @ 1.07
Edge
+6.6%
76%
18%
6%
covers Sturm Graz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Sturm Graz or Austria Lustenau✗ Miss
82.2%
Avg Implied 81.9% · @ 1.15
Edge
+0.4%
76%
18%
6%
covers Sturm Graz + Austria Lustenau
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Draw or Austria Lustenau✓ Hit
23.8%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 3.05
Edge
-7.0%
76%
18%
6%
covers Draw + Austria Lustenau
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.10
888Sport
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.9%
@ 1.06+0.2%
Under
11.1%
@ 8.32-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Under
888Sport
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
7.50
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
64.6%
@ 1.37-3.5%
Under
35.4%
@ 2.91+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
888Sport
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.88
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
37.7%
@ 2.19-4.9%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.63+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Betano
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.67
888Sport
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Sturm Graz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
18.1%
@ 4.00-5.1%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.20+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.42
BetVictor
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Austria Lustenau over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
38.5%
@ 1.60-19.4%
Under
61.5%
@ 2.20+19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
888Sport
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
Austria Lustenau over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 3.98-14.8%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.22+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Pinnacle
4.23
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Unibet
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Austria Lustenau over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 11.14-7.2%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.04+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Superbet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Austria Lustenau over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.2%
@ 36.50-99.8%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
32.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sturm Graz, so a minus line means Sturm Graz give that many goals of a start and Austria Lustenau receive them. At -1, Sturm Graz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sturm Graz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sturm Graz)Actual: Austria Lustenau
Sturm Graz -2
29.2%
@ 3.24+1.4%
Draw -2
23.2%
@ 4.10+1.3%
Austria Lustenau +2
47.6%
@ 1.78-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
Unibet
3.10
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
3.90
Away
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Handicap -1 (Sturm Graz)Actual: Austria Lustenau
Sturm Graz -1
52.4%
@ 1.92+5.6%
Draw -1
23.8%
@ 3.73-0.2%
Austria Lustenau +1
23.8%
@ 3.07-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.60
Away
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Handicap +1 (Sturm Graz)Actual: Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz +1
94.0%
@ 1.08+8.0%
Draw +1
4.7%
@ 10.00-4.6%
Austria Lustenau -1
1.3%
@ 19.50-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Away
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
Handicap +2 (Sturm Graz)Actual: Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz +2
98.7%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Draw +2
1.1%
@ 23.00-3.0%
Austria Lustenau -2
0.2%
@ 61.00-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
Away
Betfair
81.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sturm Graz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.29
0.07
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.29
0.25
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.58
0.32
0.38
0.00
0.73
0.55
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Lustenau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Austria Lustenau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.94
0.38
0.14
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.56
0.92
0.31
0.14
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.5%
@ 1.24-4.3%
Under 0.5
29.5%
@ 3.68+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.4%
@ 2.19-8.2%
Under 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.62+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Under
William Hil
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.63
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 4.83-8.4%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.15+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
William Hil
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
57.1%
@ 1.44-7.6%
Under
42.9%
@ 2.64+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.79
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
1xBet
2.60
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 3.08-12.9%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.32+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 7.60-8.0%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.05+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
10Bet
7.50
Betano
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Austria Lustenau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
34.1%
@ 2.83+1.3%
Under
65.9%
@ 1.38-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.13
Unibet
2.88
Betano
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Under
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Austria Lustenau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 9.67-3.9%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Austria Lustenau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 45.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sturm Graz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.71
0.57
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.29
1.00
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.58
0.75
0.62
1.27
0.55
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Lustenau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Austria Lustenau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.56
0.44
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.44
0.62
0.54
0.93
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.5%
Under 0.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.8%
Under 1.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.9%
Under 2.5
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Lustenau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Lustenau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Lustenau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
98.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
94.0%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
94.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
91.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+14.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.5%
1.23
888Sport
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.9%
1.32
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
+12.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+0.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
81.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
76.2%
1.35
Dafabet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.6%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.7%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.64
10Bet
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.60
+13.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.5%
1.24
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.2%
1.47
Unibet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
+7.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sturm Graz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Seedy Jatta25%
Szymon Włodarczyk17%
Nelson Weiper17%
Belmin Beganović17%
Simon Seidl12%
Emran Soglo12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Jon Gorenc Stanković0%
Gizo Mamageishvili0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Arjan Malić0%
Axel Kayombo0%
Petar Petrović0%
Jacob Hödl0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
Luís Balbo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Gorenc Stanković38%
Albert Vallci29%
Jurgen Heil25%
Ryan Fosso25%
Jeyland Mitchell20%
Axel Kayombo20%
Nelson Weiper17%
Gizo Mamageishvili14%
Luca Weinhandl14%
Simon Seidl12%
Emran Soglo12%
Jacob Hödl12%
Paul Koller0%
Szymon Włodarczyk0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Belmin Beganović0%
Arjan Malić0%
Petar Petrović0%
Luís Balbo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Simon Seidl38%
Jon Gorenc Stanković12%
Emran Soglo12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Szymon Włodarczyk0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Gizo Mamageishvili0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Belmin Beganović0%
Arjan Malić0%
Axel Kayombo0%
Petar Petrović0%
Jacob Hödl0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
Luís Balbo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jacob Hödl25%
Axel Kayombo20%
Szymon Włodarczyk17%
Belmin Beganović17%
Gizo Mamageishvili14%
Simon Seidl12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Jon Gorenc Stanković0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Emran Soglo0%
Arjan Malić0%
Petar Petrović0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
Luís Balbo0%
Austria Lustenau
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominik Weixelbraun40%
Dion Kacuri20%
Antonio Verinac20%
Pius Grabher0%
Domenik Schierl0%
Albin Gashi0%
Danilo Soares0%
Fabian Gmeiner0%
Sacha Delaye0%
Lenn Jastremski0%
Niklas Pertlwieser0%
Seydou Diarra0%
Lord Afrifa0%
Precious Benjamin0%
Chukwu Emmanuel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fabian Gmeiner40%
Antonio Verinac40%
Danilo Soares20%
Lenn Jastremski20%
Seydou Diarra20%
Lord Afrifa20%
Chukwu Emmanuel20%
Pius Grabher0%
Domenik Schierl0%
Albin Gashi0%
Sacha Delaye0%
Dominik Weixelbraun0%
Niklas Pertlwieser0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Precious Benjamin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Danilo Soares40%
Dominik Weixelbraun20%
Antonio Verinac20%
Pius Grabher0%
Domenik Schierl0%
Albin Gashi0%
Fabian Gmeiner0%
Sacha Delaye0%
Lenn Jastremski0%
Niklas Pertlwieser0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Seydou Diarra0%
Lord Afrifa0%
Precious Benjamin0%
Chukwu Emmanuel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dominik Weixelbraun20%
Antonio Verinac20%
Pius Grabher0%
Domenik Schierl0%
Albin Gashi0%
Danilo Soares0%
Fabian Gmeiner0%
Sacha Delaye0%
Lenn Jastremski0%
Niklas Pertlwieser0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Seydou Diarra0%
Lord Afrifa0%
Precious Benjamin0%
Chukwu Emmanuel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
Sturm Graz's squad is €47m more valuable than Austria Lustenau's (€52m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
Sturm Graz's attack is €23m more valuable than Austria Lustenau's (€26m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Sturm Graz's midfield is €13m more valuable than Austria Lustenau's (€14m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
Sturm Graz's defence is €11m more valuable than Austria Lustenau's (€13m vs €2m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
WSG Wattens
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
Ried
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna