Swansea are favoured to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of a Watford win. The model expects 2.6 goals in total, most likely 2 goals overall. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.2% probability. Swansea’s home form against similar opposition shows an average of 1.47 goals scored and 0.93 conceded, while Watford’s away form shows 0.93 scored and 1.87 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (95.2% with a 4% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.1%). Swansea’s recent draw and Watford’s recent defeat hint at a cautious, low-scoring encounter.
Results analysis
Swansea’s 2-0 victory over Watford extended their two-game winning run, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would prevail. The model had named a Home win with a 50% probability, and that call proved correct. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual result, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 was missed. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Under 6.5 at 98.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9%, Under 5.5 at 95.1%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.6%. All picks settled in favour of the model’s choices.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swansea win✓ Hit
49.7%
Avg Implied 50.1% · @ 1.88
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Dafabet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.58
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.70
Pinnacle
3.67
Dafabet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Watford win✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 4.00
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.13
Superbet
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Betano
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Swansea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.10
1.47
0.93
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.41
1.03
1.47
0.93
1.36
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
1.00
1.47
0.93
1.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.62
1.09
1.27
0.93
1.87
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
@ 1.27+0.9%
Under 1.5
25.5%
@ 3.55-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.73
Unibet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
10Bet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.2%
@ 1.89-2.0%
Under 2.5
51.8%
@ 1.91+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.4%
@ 3.17-3.1%
Under 3.5
73.6%
@ 1.33+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
@ 1.75-1.2%
No
48.2%
@ 1.98+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
Betfair
1.75
10Bet
1.75
No
Betfair
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.46+6.1%
1-0
10.6%@ 6.95+4.1%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.82+3.7%
2-0 ✓
9.4%@ 8.57+4.1%
0-0
8.6%@ 10.24+4.2%
0-1
6.3%@ 10.58+2.0%
1-2
6.0%@ 12.10+2.3%
3-1
5.0%@ 13.82+1.8%
Swansea goals ↓
Watford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
6.3%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.0%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.5%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.0%
5.0%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swansea goals (down), columns = Watford goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Swansea is 0.15 points better than Watford in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Swansea is 0.09 goals better than Watford in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Swansea is 0.13 goals better than Watford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Swansea is 3.3 percentage points better than Watford in terms of average possession (55% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swansea
For 4.8 · Against 6.3 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 12.6 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Watford
For 4.3 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.7 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swansea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.4
9.6
4.0
4.2
3.8
22.4
21.8
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
10.0
4.0
3.7
5.0
1.0
24.0
21.0
30.0
vs Similar (47)
10.1
10.4
9.9
4.0
4.1
3.9
22.3
21.9
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
54%
50%
62%
69%
54%
62%
62%
62%
% under line
48%
46%
50%
38%
31%
46%
38%
38%
38%
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.5
4.4
4.5
21.1
21.7
20.4
vs Stronger (3)
9.3
10.5
7.0
4.0
4.5
3.0
20.7
23.0
16.0
vs Similar (45)
10.6
10.6
10.5
4.6
4.5
4.6
21.2
21.8
20.6
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
8.5
-
3.0
3.0
-
20.0
20.0
-
% over line
60%
58%
62%
56%
58%
54%
40%
42%
38%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
44%
42%
46%
60%
58%
62%
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Bolton
10.4
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.3
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.1
Swansea
10.0
QPR
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Sheffield United
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Bristol City
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
West Ham
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Southampton
3.9
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.7
Swansea
22.4
West Ham
22.2
Portsmouth
22.1
Bolton
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Birmingham
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Sheffield United
21.5
Norwich
21.4
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
West Brom
20.8
Blackburn
20.8
Stoke
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.2
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
60.7%
@ 1.66+4.7%
Under 9.5
39.3%
@ 2.11-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.17
Betano
2.12
Unibet
2.10
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.0%
@ 1.47-2.8%
Under 3.5
40.0%
@ 2.47+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.65
Superbet
2.57
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.25
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.5%
@ 1.71-3.7%
Under 21.5
49.5%
@ 2.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.65
Under
1xBet
2.11
Superbet
1.95
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Swansea or Draw✓ Hit
77.2%
Avg Implied 76.6% · @ 1.22
Edge
+0.6%
50%
27%
23%
covers Swansea + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Swansea or Watford✓ Hit
72.5%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.5%
50%
27%
23%
covers Swansea + Watford
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Draw or Watford✗ Miss
50.3%
Avg Implied 49.4% · @ 1.89
Edge
+0.9%
50%
27%
23%
covers Draw + Watford
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.00
Unibet
1.94
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.91
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Swansea over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.6%
@ 1.17+0.5%
Under
20.4%
@ 4.44-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.60
Unibet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Swansea over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 1.91-1.6%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.82+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
BetVictor
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Unibet
1.86
1xBet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Swansea over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.5%
@ 3.92-2.3%
Under
78.5%
@ 1.22+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.14
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.94
Under
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Swansea over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 8.73-2.9%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Watford over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.5%
@ 1.44-1.1%
Under
36.5%
@ 2.62+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Betano
2.60
Watford over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.7%
@ 3.20-2.5%
Under
73.3%
@ 1.32+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.32
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Under
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Watford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 8.46-2.8%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.05+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.20
1xBet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Watford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 20.67-2.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Swansea, so a minus line means Swansea give that many goals of a start and Watford receive them. At -1, Swansea must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Swansea win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Swansea)Actual: Draw
Swansea -2
11.2%
@ 6.82-2.0%
Draw -2
15.6%
@ 5.33-1.3%
Watford +2
73.3%
@ 1.28+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.40
Draw
Marathonbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Swansea)Actual: Swansea
Swansea -1
26.7%
@ 3.27-0.7%
Draw -1
23.0%
@ 3.60-1.9%
Watford +1
50.3%
@ 1.88+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Away
Unibet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Handicap +1 (Swansea)Actual: Swansea
Swansea +1
77.2%
@ 1.22+3.5%
Draw +1
14.1%
@ 5.57-2.0%
Watford -1
8.7%
@ 8.85-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Unibet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Away
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.10
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Handicap +2 (Swansea)Actual: Swansea
Swansea +2
91.3%
@ 1.05+3.5%
Draw +2
6.2%
@ 11.17-2.0%
Watford -2
2.4%
@ 23.67-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
26.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swansea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.47
0.53
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.52
0.52
0.47
0.53
0.57
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.53
0.40
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.62
0.64
0.18
0.27
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.6%
@ 1.37-0.6%
Under 0.5
32.4%
@ 2.94+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
William Hil
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.09
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.5%
@ 2.74-2.5%
Under 1.5
68.5%
@ 1.41+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.87
Pinnacle
2.86
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 6.93-2.3%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.07+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.2%
@ 1.80-1.5%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.93+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.88
Swansea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
15.6%
@ 5.02-2.9%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.14+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.85
Unibet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Swansea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 12.88-4.2%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Watford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.9%
@ 2.49-2.4%
Under
65.1%
@ 1.48+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Superbet
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Watford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 9.13-2.7%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Watford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 35.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swansea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
1.00
0.40
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.90
0.52
1.00
0.40
0.79
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.47
1.07
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.58
1.00
0.45
1.09
0.67
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.1%
@ 1.22+0.6%
Under 0.5
22.9%
@ 3.95-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.1%
@ 2.06-1.2%
Under 1.5
55.9%
@ 1.71+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Under
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.9%
@ 4.38-2.3%
Under 2.5
81.1%
@ 1.18+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.4%
@ 1.57+0.4%
Under
40.6%
@ 2.27-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.14
Swansea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.6%
@ 3.63-2.8%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.24+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.74
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Swansea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 9.33-3.6%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Watford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.0%
@ 2.04-1.3%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.70+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Watford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 6.29-1.5%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.09+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
6.50
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Watford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 16.88-3.6%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
1.05
Betano
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.7%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.4%
1.14
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.5%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.2%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.2%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.20
+0.6%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.7%
1.38
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
-
-
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.5%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.6%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.3%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
73.3%
1.32
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.5%
1.26
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.4%
1.38
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
1xBet
1.32
+5.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Swansea
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joseph Opoku50%
A. Idah40%
Ji-sung Eom40%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Lissah40%
M. Widell40%
J. Fulton20%
J. Tymon20%
Elijah Just20%
M. Stamenić20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
S. Welsh0%
Ben Cabango0%
A. Idah0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
Ji-sung Eom0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ji-sung Eom40%
J. Tymon20%
A. Idah20%
Z. Vipotnik20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Idah40%
Z. Vipotnik20%
Ji-sung Eom20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Watford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Amin Nabizada33%
Luca Kjerrumgaard25%
Iker Bravo20%
M. Doumbia17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Payero0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
O. Traoré0%
F. Ravaglia0%
H. Kyprianou0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Othmane Maamma0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Kyprianou33%
Edoardo Bove33%
K. Keben33%
Othmane Maamma33%
J. Zemura25%
M. Payero20%
M. Pollock20%
O. Traoré20%
Iker Bravo20%
M. Doumbia17%
Amin Nabizada17%
E. Kayembe0%
F. Ravaglia0%
R. Vata0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
O. Traoré20%
Amin Nabizada17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Payero0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
F. Ravaglia0%
H. Kyprianou0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Iker Bravo0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Othmane Maamma0%
M. Doumbia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Kjerrumgaard50%
Iker Bravo40%
M. Payero20%
H. Kyprianou17%
M. Doumbia17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
O. Traoré0%
F. Ravaglia0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Othmane Maamma0%
Amin Nabizada0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Swansea's squad is €2m more valuable than Watford's (€91m vs €88m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Swansea's attack is €28m more valuable than Watford's (€56m vs €28m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Swansea's midfield is €29m less valuable than Watford's (€9m vs €38m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Swansea's defence is €4m more valuable than Watford's (€26m vs €22m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston