PythiaFootballBETA
The encounter between Swindon and Walsall is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 39%. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.8% probability, a tidy draw that reflects both sides’ similar offensive output.
Swindon’s home form shows 1.58 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against comparable opposition, while Walsall’s away numbers are 1.58 scored and 1.83 conceded. The suggested selections cover a range of match aspects: Over 1.5 goals at 79.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 76.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 70.9%, and Under 25.5 fouls at 70.1%. The model’s picks are presented with their exact probabilities, each standing alone.
Swindon’s recent form includes a win against Port Vale, while Walsall remains unbeaten in five outings, their last match a 2-2 draw with Crewe. These narratives add nuance to the 39% home win, 27% draw, and 33% away win probabilities, underscoring the uncertainty that makes this League Two fixture intriguing.
The pre-match favourite, Swindon, failed to deliver, as Walsall stormed to a 0-4 away victory, extending their unbeaten run. The model had picked a home win with a 39% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-4 confirms the away win. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals hit at 79.4%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 74.9%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 70.9%, and Under 25.5 fouls hit at 70.1%. Over 2.5 cards and Over 19.5 fouls missed, each with 79.3% and 76.8% probabilities respectively. The match underlined the unpredictability of League Two fixtures.
Swindon| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.87 | 1.60 | 1.53 | 1.27 | 2.20 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.48 | 1.92 | 1.58 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 2.31 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-19pp vs league) | |||||
Walsall| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.50 | 1.69 | 1.12 | 1.43 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.33 | 1.58 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Walsall goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 13% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
SwindonWalsallSwindon| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 20.9 | 20.4 | 21.4 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 18.5 | 25.5 |
| vs Similar (40) | 10.0 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 20.9 | 20.8 | 21.1 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 11.0 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 20.2 | 19.3 | 21.0 |
| % over line | 61% | 62% | 60% | 44% | 33% | 54% | 47% | 42% | 52% |
| % under line | 39% | 38% | 40% | 56% | 67% | 46% | 53% | 58% | 48% |
Walsall| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.6 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 21.2 | 21.6 | 20.8 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 11.0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 16.2 | 16.5 | 16.0 |
| vs Similar (39) | 10.8 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 21.4 | 21.7 | 21.2 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 9.1 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 22.7 | 24.0 | 21.0 |
| % over line | 53% | 48% | 58% | 54% | 62% | 46% | 49% | 56% | 42% |
| % under line | 47% | 52% | 42% | 46% | 38% | 54% | 51% | 44% | 58% |
Swindon| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Walsall| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.58 | 0.71 | 0.58 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Swindon| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.20 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.88 | 1.28 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 1.69 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Walsall| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.94 | 0.50 | 0.86 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 79.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 76.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 70.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 16/09/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/12/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 07/05/22 | A | 0-3 | |
| 22/02/22 | H | 5-0 |
Swindon| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/24 | A | 4-2 | |
| 09/08/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/24 | H | 3-3 | |
| 20/04/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 16/04/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/04/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 06/04/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 01/04/24 | A | 3-1 | |
| 29/03/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 16/03/24 | H | 1-2 |
Walsall| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/08/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/04/24 | A | 5-1 | |
| 20/04/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 16/04/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/04/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 09/04/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/24 | A | 1-3 | |
| 01/04/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 29/03/24 | A | 5-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Doncaster | 46 | 84 | 52% | 1.8 | 73 | 50 | +23 | 2.7 | 78% | 54% | 22% | 10.7 | 50% | 3.9 | 54% | 24.1 | 72% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 52% |
| 2 |  Port Vale | 46 | 80 | 48% | 1.7 | 65 | 46 | +19 | 2.4 | 63% | 43% | 26% | 9.8 | 48% | 3.9 | 57% | 22.4 | 54% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 3 |  Bradford | 46 | 78 | 48% | 1.7 | 64 | 45 | +19 | 2.4 | 67% | 46% | 15% | 9.3 | 41% | 4.8 | 70% | 24.2 | 59% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 77 | 46% | 1.7 | 75 | 54 | +21 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 39% | 10.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 50% | 21.2 | 37% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 5 |  AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 73 | 43% | 1.6 | 56 | 35 | +21 | 2.0 | 54% | 33% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.1 | 57% | 23.5 | 65% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 49% |
| 6 |  Notts County | 46 | 72 | 43% | 1.6 | 68 | 49 | +19 | 2.5 | 78% | 46% | 20% | 9.7 | 48% | 3.8 | 48% | 21.3 | 48% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 62% |
| 7 |  Chesterfield | 46 | 70 | 41% | 1.5 | 73 | 54 | +19 | 2.8 | 76% | 57% | 26% | 9.9 | 54% | 4.3 | 70% | 22.0 | 50% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 61% |
| 8 |  Salford | 46 | 69 | 39% | 1.5 | 64 | 54 | +10 | 2.6 | 78% | 48% | 26% | 9.2 | 46% | 4.4 | 65% | 24.8 | 70% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 9 |  Grimsby | 46 | 68 | 43% | 1.5 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 2.8 | 76% | 59% | 30% | 9.8 | 54% | 4.4 | 63% | 24.7 | 72% | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 10 |  Colchester | 46 | 67 | 35% | 1.5 | 52 | 47 | +5 | 2.2 | 65% | 35% | 17% | 9.2 | 41% | 4.6 | 78% | 24.6 | 76% | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 11 |  Bromley | 46 | 66 | 37% | 1.4 | 64 | 59 | +5 | 2.7 | 74% | 46% | 26% | 10.5 | 57% | 3.9 | 59% | 21.2 | 48% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 12 | Swindon | 46 | 62 | 33% | 1.3 | 71 | 63 | +8 | 2.9 | 76% | 54% | 41% | 9.8 | 52% | 3.5 | 48% | 21.4 | 50% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 13 |  Crewe | 46 | 62 | 33% | 1.3 | 49 | 48 | +1 | 2.1 | 67% | 30% | 15% | 9.7 | 46% | 4.4 | 63% | 24.5 | 70% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 14 |  Fleetwood Town | 46 | 60 | 33% | 1.3 | 60 | 60 | +0 | 2.6 | 70% | 48% | 33% | 9.6 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.4 | 59% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 15 |  Cheltenham | 46 | 60 | 35% | 1.3 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 2.8 | 80% | 52% | 26% | 9.8 | 59% | 3.6 | 52% | 24.6 | 74% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 16 |  Barrow | 46 | 59 | 33% | 1.3 | 52 | 50 | +2 | 2.2 | 67% | 37% | 17% | 9.9 | 52% | 4.3 | 59% | 22.2 | 52% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 47% |
| 17 |  Gillingham | 46 | 58 | 30% | 1.3 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 1.9 | 59% | 28% | 9% | 7.8 | 28% | 4.6 | 61% | 24.3 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 18 |  Harrogate | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 2.3 | 67% | 41% | 15% | 10.8 | 59% | 3.2 | 41% | 22.0 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 19 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 2.6 | 70% | 50% | 20% | 8.4 | 37% | 3.7 | 48% | 23.8 | 61% | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 60% |
| 20 |  Tranmere | 46 | 51 | 26% | 1.1 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 2.4 | 74% | 43% | 22% | 8.9 | 39% | 4.3 | 70% | 22.8 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 21 |  Accrington | 46 | 50 | 26% | 1.1 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 2.7 | 74% | 52% | 26% | 9.0 | 48% | 5.0 | 74% | 24.8 | 76% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 22 |  Newport County | 46 | 49 | 28% | 1.1 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 2.8 | 74% | 57% | 33% | 10.0 | 57% | 3.7 | 52% | 22.6 | 63% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 23 |  Carlisle | 46 | 42 | 22% | 0.9 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 2.5 | 67% | 48% | 26% | 10.3 | 52% | 4.6 | 65% | 22.9 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 24 |  Morecambe | 46 | 36 | 22% | 0.8 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 2.4 | 61% | 39% | 24% | 10.5 | 61% | 3.8 | 52% | 25.5 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 45% |