Tabor Sežana are the clear favourites to win against Dravinja, with a 48% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of an away win. Their recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 1-0 victory over Brežice, fuels confidence. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderately high-scoring encounter, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 26% probability. The single most probable final score is 1-1, carrying a 13.1% chance, a tidy draw that reflects the evenly matched teams. Tabor Sežana average 1.31 goals for and 0.92 against at home against similarly strong opponents, while Dravinja, after a 1-4 loss to Triglav, average 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 75.9% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.9%. The model’s selection for the match result remains a home win, with the overall probabilities for the three outcomes explicitly stated.
Results analysis
The match saw Tabor Sežana extend their five-game winning streak, beating Dravinja 2-0 to confirm the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite was a home win at 48 percent, and the model was correct. The model’s selections also proved accurate: Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.9 percent chance, hit; Under 3.5 goals, with a 71.9 percent chance, also hit. The final score of 2-0 matched the predicted outcome, and the game’s total goals fell within the expected range, underscoring the model’s solid forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tabor Sežana win✓ Hit
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dravinja win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tabor Sežana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.97
1.29
0.86
1.56
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.43
1.04
1.31
0.92
1.53
1.13
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.53
0.87
1.13
1.47
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
2.62
2.00
2.33
1.00
2.80
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.10
0.64
0.73
1.70
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.5%
2-0 ✓
8.7%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.1%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Dravinja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
6.3%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.7%
13%
6.5%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.5%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.6%
5.0%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Dravinja goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Tabor Sežana is 0.43 points better than Dravinja in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 0.17 goals better than Dravinja in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Tabor Sežana is 0.37 goals better than Dravinja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tabor Sežana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.36
0.43
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.46
0.38
0.46
0.87
0.47
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.40
0.80
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.33
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.27
0.73
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tabor Sežana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.43
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.57
0.92
0.46
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.47
0.33
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.48
0.36
0.00
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Tabor Sežana and Dravinja have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Dravinja have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Dravinja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Dravinja have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →