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Tabor Sežana vs Rudar Result & Analysis

Date: 23/05/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Vs
41%
31%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Tabor Sežana’s defensive solidity is the headline, having conceded only 0.75 goals per game at home against teams of similar strength, while Rudar’s away form shows a higher concession rate of 1.18. The model projects a tight affair, with a 41 % chance of a home win, 31 % for a draw, and 28 % for an away win, and the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. The expected total goals sit at 2.2, with a 28 % probability that the match will finish with exactly two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5 % chance. The model’s selection, “Under 3.5,” has an 81.6 % probability of being correct. Tabor Sežana’s average home scoring of 0.83 and conceding 0.75, combined with Rudar’s away scoring of 1.36 and conceding 1.18, suggest a low-scoring, defensively dominated game.

Results analysis

Tabor Sežana’s 4-game winning streak carried them into a convincing 2-0 victory over Rudar, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would win. The Pythia model had named a home win as the favourite with a 41 % probability, and the result matched that call. The only suggested selection was Under 3.5 goals, which the model assigned an 81.6 % chance and it hit, as the match produced just two goals. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual result, and the model’s pick was correct. The win extended Tabor Sežana’s run, while Rudar returned from a defeat.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tabor Sežana win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D20W32W12L02L12L02L12L01L15LA·JES21/03H·DEK28/03A·ILI03/04A·BIS12/04H·NAF17/04A·BIL26/04H·BEL02/05A·BRI06/05H·TRI10/05A·SLO17/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.200.860.641.621.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.231.310.830.751.571.79
vs Weaker (4)1.500.501.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L02L40W00D00D11D32W30W12L22DH·BRI21/03A·TRI27/03H·SLO03/04H·ILI11/04A·KRK17/04H·DRA25/04A·GOR02/05H·KRŠ07/05A·JES10/05H·DEK15/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.271.801.001.401.53
vs Stronger (6)1.502.501.332.331.672.67
vs Similar (22)1.680.912.000.641.361.18
vs Weaker (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.2%
Under 2.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.7%
No
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.2%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
9.4%
2-0 ✓
8.3%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.3%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Rudar goals →
01234
012%9.4%5.3%1.7%0.4%
112%15%6.5%2.1%0.5%
28.3%8.1%4.0%1.3%0.3%
33.4%3.3%1.6%0.5%0.1%
41.0%1.0%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Rudar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Tabor Sežana is 0.43 points better than Rudar in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 0.30 goals worse than Rudar in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Tabor Sežana is 0.20 goals better than Rudar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.30).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W02L00D02L10W00D02L00D01LA·JES21/03H·DEK28/03A·ILI03/04A·BIS12/04H·NAF17/04A·BIL26/04H·BEL02/05A·BRI06/05H·TRI10/05A·SLO17/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.360.290.690.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.500.540.420.330.570.71
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D00D00D00D11D02L10W01L11DH·BRI21/03A·TRI27/03H·SLO03/04H·ILI11/04A·KRK17/04H·DRA25/04A·GOR02/05H·KRŠ07/05A·JES10/05H·DEK15/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.870.600.800.47
vs Stronger (6)0.831.331.331.330.331.33
vs Similar (22)0.910.320.820.451.000.18
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W30W12L00D02L02L10W01L14LA·JES21/03H·DEK28/03A·ILI03/04A·BIS12/04H·NAF17/04A·BIL26/04H·BEL02/05A·BRI06/05H·TRI10/05A·SLO17/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.500.360.941.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.730.770.420.421.001.07
vs Weaker (4)0.750.251.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L02L40W00D00D00D30W20W11D11DH·BRI21/03A·TRI27/03H·SLO03/04H·ILI11/04A·KRK17/04H·DRA25/04A·GOR02/05H·KRŠ07/05A·JES10/05H·DEK15/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.930.400.601.07
vs Stronger (6)0.671.170.001.001.331.33
vs Similar (22)0.770.591.180.180.361.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (43)
€3m
BRI (26)
€3m
BEL (31)
€2m
NAF (24)
€2m
TRI (32)
€2m
BIS (39)
€2m
DEK (50)
€2m
RUD (52)
€2m
SL (36)
€2m
BIL (46)
€2m
ILI (46)
€2m
KRK (42)
€2m
DRA (34)
€1m
KRŠ (36)
€1m
JES (35)
€1m
Tabor Sežana and Rudar have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
TS wins
2
Draws
2
RUD wins

Head-to-head

Tabor Sežana vs Rudar · H/A from TS
DateH/AGameScore
16/11/25ARudar Vs TS5-1
11/04/25ARudar Vs TS1-2
29/09/24HTS Vs Rudar1-1
17/03/24ARudar Vs TS1-0
02/09/23HTS Vs Rudar1-1

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs TS5-1
10/05/26HTS Vs Triglav0-1
06/05/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs TS2-1
02/05/26HTS Vs Beltinci0-2
26/04/26ABilje Vs TS2-1
17/04/26HTS Vs Nafta0-2
12/04/26ABistrica Vs TS2-1
03/04/26AIlirija Vs TS2-3
28/03/26HTS Vs Dekani2-0
21/03/26AJesenice Vs TS2-2

RudarRudar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26HRUD Vs Dekani2-2
10/05/26AJesenice Vs RUD2-1
07/05/26HRUD Vs Krško3-0
02/05/26AGorica Vs RUD2-3
25/04/26HRUD Vs Dravinja1-1
17/04/26AKrka Vs RUD0-0
11/04/26HRUD Vs Ilirija0-0
03/04/26HRUD Vs Slovan Ljubljana4-0
27/03/26ATriglav Vs RUD2-0
21/03/26HRUD Vs Brinje-Grosuplje2-3

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.72
HomeWWLLL1.75
AwayWLLLL1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%50%46%
AVG goals2.542.172.88
Over 1.5 %70%62%77%
Over 2.5 %44%29%58%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.441.291.58
Conceded1.100.881.31
BTTS50%38%62%
Clean Sheet40%42%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLD1.22
HomeWDDWD1.27
AwayLLDWL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%27%33%
AVG goals2.582.542.62
Over 1.5 %74%73%75%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %28%31%25%
Scored1.281.421.12
Conceded1.301.121.50
BTTS44%46%42%
Clean Sheet34%38%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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