Tabor Sežana’s defensive solidity is the headline, having conceded only 0.75 goals per game at home against teams of similar strength, while Rudar’s away form shows a higher concession rate of 1.18. The model projects a tight affair, with a 41 % chance of a home win, 31 % for a draw, and 28 % for an away win, and the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. The expected total goals sit at 2.2, with a 28 % probability that the match will finish with exactly two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5 % chance. The model’s selection, “Under 3.5,” has an 81.6 % probability of being correct. Tabor Sežana’s average home scoring of 0.83 and conceding 0.75, combined with Rudar’s away scoring of 1.36 and conceding 1.18, suggest a low-scoring, defensively dominated game.
Results analysis
Tabor Sežana’s 4-game winning streak carried them into a convincing 2-0 victory over Rudar, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would win. The Pythia model had named a home win as the favourite with a 41 % probability, and the result matched that call. The only suggested selection was Under 3.5 goals, which the model assigned an 81.6 % chance and it hit, as the match produced just two goals. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual result, and the model’s pick was correct. The win extended Tabor Sežana’s run, while Rudar returned from a defeat.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tabor Sežana win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tabor Sežana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.20
0.86
0.64
1.62
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.31
0.83
0.75
1.57
1.79
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.27
1.80
1.00
1.40
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
2.50
1.33
2.33
1.67
2.67
vs Similar (22)
1.68
0.91
2.00
0.64
1.36
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.2%
Under 2.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.7%
No
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.2%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
9.4%
2-0 ✓
8.3%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.3%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Rudar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.4%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.3%
8.1%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.4%
3.3%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Rudar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Tabor Sežana is 0.43 points better than Rudar in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 0.30 goals worse than Rudar in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Tabor Sežana is 0.20 goals better than Rudar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tabor Sežana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.36
0.29
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.54
0.42
0.33
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.33
1.33
1.33
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.32
0.82
0.45
1.00
0.18
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tabor Sežana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.50
0.36
0.94
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.77
0.42
0.42
1.00
1.07
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.93
0.40
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.59
1.18
0.18
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (43)
€3m
BRI (26)
€3m
BEL (31)
€2m
NAF (24)
€2m
TRI (32)
€2m
BIS (39)
€2m
DEK (50)
€2m
RUD (52)
€2m
SL (36)
€2m
BIL (46)
€2m
ILI (46)
€2m
KRK (42)
€2m
DRA (34)
€1m
KRŠ (36)
€1m
JES (35)
€1m
Tabor Sežana and Rudar have a similar squad value (both €3m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →