This Segunda División match between Tenerife and Almeria is finely balanced, with the recent form of both teams telling a story. Tenerife have suffered three consecutive defeats, including a 0-2 loss to Almeria, while Almeria have been coming off a defeat themselves, a 1-2 loss to Malaga. The model predicts an away win for Almeria, with a 37% probability of an Almeria victory, 30% for a draw, and 33% for a Tenerife win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 14.2% probability. Tenerife have struggled to score at home, averaging 0.25 goals per match, but have conceded an average of 1.25 goals. Almeria, on the other hand, have excelled away from home, scoring 2 goals on average, but conceding 1.33 goals.
The model's selection for the most goals is Over 21.5 fouls, which has an 86.7% probability, while Over 3.5 cards is also favoured, with an 80.8% chance. The model also suggests Under 3.5, with a 76.9% probability, and Over 1.5, with a 71.4% chance.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Almeria, was expected to win with a 37 % chance, but Tenerife pulled off a 1-0 home victory, extending their two-game winning run. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-0 confirmed a home win. The model’s selection of “Under 7.5” goals hit, as did “Under 6.5”, “Away under 2.5 HT goals”, “Home under 2.5 HT goals”, “Away under 2.5 2H goals”, “Home under 2.5 2H goals”, “Home under 3.5 goals” and “Under 5.5”. Each hit carried a probability of 99.6 %, 98.7 %, 98.4 %, 98.2 %, 97.3 %, 96.9 %, 96.8 % and 96.1 % respectively. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total was also missed, as the match produced only one goal.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tenerife win✓ Hit
33.0%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.79
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
2.88
1xBet
2.82
Betano
2.80
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.16
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.27
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Bet365
3.20
Almeria win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied 37.0% · @ 2.52
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.66
Superbet
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.62
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tenerife
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.04
1.08
0.77
0.73
1.36
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almeria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.53
2.50
1.44
1.14
1.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.74
2.09
1.73
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (7)
3.00
0.86
3.40
0.80
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.4%
@ 1.31+0.1%
Under 1.5
28.6%
@ 3.26-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.53
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.40
Superbet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.2%
@ 1.99-3.2%
Under 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.80+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Under
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.85
Superbet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.1%
@ 3.43-4.2%
Under 3.5
76.9%
@ 1.29+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Under
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
@ 1.74-2.3%
No
49.0%
@ 1.98+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Superbet
1.76
Betfair
1.75
888Sport
1.75
No
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.03
BetVictor
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.56+6.3%
0-0
10.0%@ 8.45+4.7%
0-1
9.7%@ 7.59+3.9%
1-0 ✓
8.9%@ 8.01+3.4%
1-2
8.2%@ 8.69+3.1%
2-1
7.6%@ 9.38+2.9%
0-2
6.9%@ 11.53+3.1%
2-0
6.0%@ 12.63+2.5%
Tenerife goals ↓
Almeria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
9.7%
6.9%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.9%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.0%
7.6%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.4%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tenerife goals (down), columns = Almeria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Tenerife is 0.38 points worse than Almeria in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Tenerife is 0.59 goals worse than Almeria in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Tenerife is 0.13 goals better than Almeria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tenerife
For 5.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almeria
For 4.5 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 11.5 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tenerife
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.9
9.5
4.5
4.8
4.2
27.4
27.8
27.0
vs Stronger (7)
8.2
8.3
8.0
6.3
5.8
7.0
29.7
29.7
29.7
vs Similar (41)
9.3
8.9
9.7
4.4
4.7
4.2
27.1
27.6
26.6
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
45%
35%
60%
58%
62%
78%
78%
78%
% under line
60%
55%
65%
40%
42%
38%
22%
22%
22%
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almeria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.3
8.7
5.5
5.5
5.4
26.5
26.4
26.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
9.2
9.4
8.9
6.1
6.1
6.1
27.0
27.4
26.6
vs Weaker (15)
10.4
12.4
8.0
4.0
4.1
3.9
25.2
24.0
26.7
% over line
50%
58%
42%
78%
88%
69%
85%
83%
88%
% under line
50%
42%
58%
22%
12%
31%
15%
17%
12%
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.9
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.2
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Leganes
9.6
Almeria
9.5
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eibar
9.4
Eldense
9.4
Oviedo
9.3
Granada CF
9.3
Girona
9.3
Tenerife
9.1
FC Andorra
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.8
Burgos
8.5
Las Palmas
8.3
Celta de Vigo II
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
7.0
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Cordoba
5.7
Burgos
5.7
Almeria
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Valladolid
5.4
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
Leganes
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Tenerife
4.7
Las Palmas
4.6
Sabadell
4.6
Albacete
4.6
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.5
Mallorca
4.3
Oviedo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
35.0
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.7
Valladolid
28.5
Castellón
28.1
Sabadell
27.8
AD Ceuta FC
27.8
FC Andorra
27.7
Granada CF
27.3
Las Palmas
27.3
Tenerife
27.1
Burgos
26.6
Almeria
26.5
Leganes
26.2
Eibar
25.7
Cadiz
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.2
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
42.7%
@ 2.02-3.2%
Under 9.5
57.3%
@ 1.71+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
Unibet
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
80.2%
@ 1.60+21.4%
Under 3.5
19.8%
@ 2.28-21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.31
Under
Superbet
2.82
Pinnacle
2.53
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.7%
Under 21.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tenerife or Draw✓ Hit
62.9%
Avg Implied 62.6% · @ 1.50
Edge
+0.2%
33%
30%
37%
covers Tenerife + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.60
888Sport
1.57
Betano
1.52
William Hil
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Tenerife or Almeria✓ Hit
70.1%
Avg Implied 70.8% · @ 1.32
Edge
-0.7%
33%
30%
37%
covers Tenerife + Almeria
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Draw or Almeria✗ Miss
67.0%
Avg Implied 66.6% · @ 1.41
Edge
+0.5%
33%
30%
37%
covers Draw + Almeria
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tenerife over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.3%
@ 1.32-0.8%
Under
30.7%
@ 3.09+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.39
Betfair
3.25
Betano
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Tenerife over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.0%
@ 2.60-3.0%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.46+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.90
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Tenerife over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 6.42-2.9%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.09+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
8.00
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Tenerife over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 17.56-2.3%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Almeria over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.8%
@ 1.28-0.5%
Under
28.2%
@ 3.36+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
888Sport
3.50
Betano
3.35
Almeria over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.1%
@ 2.40-2.6%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.52+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.55
Superbet
2.47
Unibet
2.43
BetVictor
2.40
Under
888Sport
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.55
Almeria over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 5.56-3.1%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.11+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.75
1xBet
5.70
888Sport
5.50
Under
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Almeria over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 12.53-3.6%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Under
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tenerife, so a minus line means Tenerife give that many goals of a start and Almeria receive them. At -1, Tenerife must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tenerife win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tenerife)Actual: Almeria
Tenerife -2
4.6%
@ 11.80-2.9%
Draw -2
9.6%
@ 7.01-3.0%
Almeria +2
85.8%
@ 1.11+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.10
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Tenerife)Actual: Draw
Tenerife -1
14.2%
@ 5.80-1.2%
Draw -1
18.7%
@ 4.27-2.3%
Almeria +1
67.0%
@ 1.41+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Draw
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Away
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.33
Handicap +1 (Tenerife)Actual: Tenerife
Tenerife +1
62.9%
@ 1.50+2.9%
Draw +1
20.2%
@ 4.07-1.8%
Almeria -1
16.9%
@ 5.00-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.60
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
3.80
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.75
Handicap +2 (Tenerife)Actual: Tenerife
Tenerife +2
83.1%
@ 1.13+4.2%
Draw +2
11.1%
@ 6.81-1.9%
Almeria -2
5.8%
@ 11.03-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.90
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tenerife
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.47
0.40
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.42
0.46
0.31
0.27
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almeria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.19
0.44
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.70
0.73
0.55
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.29
2.20
0.20
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.1%
@ 1.41+0.0%
Under 0.5
33.9%
@ 2.75-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Superbet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.0%
@ 2.87-4.6%
Under 1.5
72.0%
@ 1.38+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.90
William Hil
2.88
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.7%
@ 7.24-3.1%
Under 2.5
90.3%
@ 1.07+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tenerife over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.5%
@ 2.18+2.0%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.61-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Tenerife over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 6.92-2.7%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.07+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
6.90
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Tenerife over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 21.50-2.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
29.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Almeria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.2%
@ 2.07-5.5%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.68+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.06
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Almeria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 6.29-5.5%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.08+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.20
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Almeria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 18.33-3.6%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
10Bet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tenerife
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
1.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.62
0.62
0.46
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almeria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.31
1.00
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.04
1.36
1.18
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.57
1.20
0.60
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.24-0.0%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 3.72+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Under
Betano
3.85
Marathonbet
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.4%
@ 2.16-1.9%
Under 1.5
58.6%
@ 1.65+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 4.58-5.2%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.18+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
William Hil
4.80
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tenerife over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.5%
@ 1.78-1.3%
Under
49.5%
@ 1.93+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.88
Tenerife over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 4.83-3.5%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.15+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.85
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Tenerife over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 13.12-4.1%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Almeria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.9%
@ 1.75-5.1%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.97+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.90
Almeria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 4.62-5.8%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.16+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Almeria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 12.50-4.8%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.08
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.8%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.5%
1.11
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.8%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.15
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.3%
1.24
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.20
+5.3%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
76.9%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.29
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.24
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.21
-0.0%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.0%
1.38
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.8%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.4%
1.31
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.1%
1.32
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
-0.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tenerife
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Enric Gallego67%
Jesús Álvarez33%
Dani Martín0%
Nacho Gil0%
José León0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
David Rodríguez Ramos0%
Noel Lopez0%
Anes Krdzalic0%
Víctor Moreno0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jesús Álvarez67%
David Rodríguez Ramos67%
Dani Martín0%
Nacho Gil0%
Enric Gallego0%
José León0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
Noel Lopez0%
Anes Krdzalic0%
Víctor Moreno0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nacho Gil67%
Anes Krdzalic33%
Dani Martín0%
Enric Gallego0%
José León0%
Jesús Álvarez0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
David Rodríguez Ramos0%
Noel Lopez0%
Víctor Moreno0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Enric Gallego67%
Dani Martín0%
Nacho Gil0%
José León0%
Jesús Álvarez0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
David Rodríguez Ramos0%
Noel Lopez0%
Anes Krdzalic0%
Víctor Moreno0%
Almeria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Federico Bonini33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Miguel de la Fuente0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Adrián Embarba33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Miguel de la Fuente0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel de la Fuente33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Stefan Džodić0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel de la Fuente33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Nicolás Melamed0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Tenerife's squad is €42m less valuable than Almeria's (€12m vs €54m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Tenerife's attack is €33m less valuable than Almeria's (€5m vs €38m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Tenerife and Almeria have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Tenerife's defence is €8m less valuable than Almeria's (€3m vs €11m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Mallorca
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC