This opponent (Bari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.83
1.31
0.75
1.36
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.72
1.00
0.69
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.21+0.6%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.64-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
11.4%
0-0 ✓
10.3%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.5%
Ternana goals ↓
Bari goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
1
7.7%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
4.5%
6.3%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.5%
2.1%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ternana goals (down), columns = Bari goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Ternana is 0.02 points worse than Bari in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Ternana is 0.05 goals better than Bari in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Ternana is 0.10 goals worse than Bari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Ternana is 6.6 percentage points worse than Bari in terms of average possession (44% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ternana
For 6.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bari
For 2.3 · Against 6.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ternana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.0
11.5
1.2
1.3
1.2
26.9
25.3
28.5
vs Stronger (26)
11.3
11.5
11.0
1.3
1.6
0.9
23.8
22.0
27.5
vs Similar (24)
10.2
7.0
11.8
1.2
0.8
1.5
30.0
32.0
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
50%
100%
16%
20%
12%
83%
83%
83%
% under line
25%
50%
0%
84%
80%
88%
17%
17%
17%
This opponent (Bari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.8
8.7
1.0
1.1
0.9
25.9
27.0
24.0
vs Stronger (5)
13.0
-
13.0
1.4
0.0
2.3
28.0
-
28.0
vs Similar (38)
8.5
9.5
6.5
1.0
1.2
0.8
25.8
27.8
22.0
vs Weaker (7)
6.0
6.0
-
0.4
0.8
0.0
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
25%
20%
33%
10%
8%
12%
88%
100%
67%
% under line
75%
80%
67%
90%
92%
88%
12%
0%
33%
This opponent (Ternana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.5
Pisa
11.0
Modena
11.0
Parma
10.6
FeralpiSalo
10.5
Como
10.4
Bari
10.3
Venezia
10.3
Ternana
10.1
Catanzaro
10.0
Ascoli
9.8
Sampdoria
9.7
Cremonese
9.5
Palermo
9.5
Cittadella
9.4
Reggiana
9.4
Spezia
9.1
Cosenza
8.7
Sudtirol
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.1
Pisa
5.8
Sudtirol
5.7
Ascoli
5.6
Parma
5.3
Cremonese
5.3
Como
5.3
Venezia
5.2
Cosenza
5.1
Reggiana
5.1
Palermo
4.9
Ternana
4.9
Spezia
4.7
Modena
4.7
Brescia
4.6
Bari
4.5
Sampdoria
4.4
Catanzaro
4.3
FeralpiSalo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
33.4
Sudtirol
32.3
Pisa
32.3
Reggiana
31.7
Ascoli
31.2
Palermo
30.8
Como
29.9
Cremonese
29.0
Parma
29.0
Catanzaro
28.7
Ternana
28.4
Bari
28.1
Spezia
27.5
Cosenza
27.0
Modena
27.0
Venezia
26.9
Sampdoria
26.6
Brescia
26.6
FeralpiSalo
26.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.4%
Under 9.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.0%
Under 3.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.9%
Under 21.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ternana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.69
0.69
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (18)
0.67
0.94
0.70
0.80
0.62
1.12
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.33
0.56
0.31
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.24
0.38
0.15
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ternana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ternana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.70
0.25
0.62
0.07
0.79
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
0.83
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.88
vs Similar (12)
0.08
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.44
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.48
0.62
0.54
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ternana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ternana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gastón Pereiro30%
Filippo Distefano21%
Antonio Raimondo18%
Salim Diakite16%
Frederik Sørensen12%
Filippo Sgarbi11%
Tiago Casasola11%
Gregorio Luperini8%
Lorenzo Lucchesi7%
Alessandro Celli6%
César Falletti5%
Franco Carboni5%
Andrea Favilli4%
Federico Dionisi4%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Kees de Boer0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Giacomo Faticanti0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Costantino Favasuli0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakub Łabojko35%
César Falletti32%
Salim Diakite32%
Gabriele Boloca29%
Lorenzo Lucchesi26%
Gastón Pereiro25%
Kees de Boer24%
Filippo Sgarbi22%
Gregorio Luperini22%
Lorenzo Amatucci22%
Federico Viviani20%
Iulius Marginean20%
Franco Carboni19%
Alessandro Celli19%
Federico Dionisi17%
Tommaso Vitali17%
Tiago Casasola13%
Andrea Favilli13%
Frederik Sørensen12%
Antony Iannarilli12%
Niklas Pyyhtiä10%
Antonio Raimondo10%
Costantino Favasuli10%
Filippo Distefano9%
Giacomo Faticanti9%
Marco Capuano8%
Christian Dalle Mura7%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
César Falletti16%
Kees de Boer12%
Lorenzo Amatucci11%
Salim Diakite11%
Gastón Pereiro10%
Giacomo Faticanti9%
Tiago Casasola8%
Valerio Mantovani7%
Filippo Distefano6%
Gregorio Luperini6%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Jakub Łabojko4%
Lorenzo Lucchesi4%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Costantino Favasuli3%
Antonio Raimondo2%
Frederik Sørensen0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Federico Dionisi0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Alessandro Celli0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Franco Carboni0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antonio Raimondo25%
Gastón Pereiro20%
César Falletti16%
Filippo Distefano12%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Andrea Favilli9%
Salim Diakite5%
Franco Carboni5%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Frederik Sørensen0%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Federico Dionisi0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Tiago Casasola0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Alessandro Celli0%
Kees de Boer0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Giacomo Faticanti0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Costantino Favasuli0%
Bari
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giuseppe Sibilli32%
George Pușcaș24%
Marco Nasti19%
Davide Diaw17%
Valerio Di Cesare16%
Malcom Edjouma9%
Ilias Koutsoupias7%
Giacomo Ricci6%
Ismail Achik4%
Raffaele Pucino4%
Ahmad Benali3%
Mehdi Dorval3%
Francesco Vicari3%
Karlo Lulić0%
Brenno0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Gennaro Acampora0%
Gregorio Morachioli0%
Raffaele Maiello0%
Gianluca Frabotta0%
Marco Pissardo0%
Mattia Aramu0%
Jérémy Ménez0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Mattia Maita0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Nicola Bellomo0%
Žan Žužek0%
Yayah Kallon0%
Vincenzo Colangiuli0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Valerio Di Cesare58%
Ahmad Benali30%
Marco Nasti30%
Gennaro Acampora27%
Giuseppe Sibilli27%
Abdoul Guiebre25%
Raffaele Maiello24%
Giacomo Ricci24%
Jérémy Ménez20%
Francesco Vicari18%
Emmanuele Matino18%
Davide Diaw17%
Mattia Maita16%
Nicola Bellomo14%
Ilias Koutsoupias14%
Yayah Kallon14%
Raffaele Pucino12%
Mehdi Dorval11%
Brenno9%
Malcom Edjouma9%
Ismail Achik9%
Karlo Lulić6%
Gregorio Morachioli4%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Gianluca Frabotta0%
George Pușcaș0%
Marco Pissardo0%
Mattia Aramu0%
Žan Žužek0%
Vincenzo Colangiuli0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yayah Kallon14%
Giuseppe Sibilli14%
Giacomo Ricci12%
Jérémy Ménez10%
Gennaro Acampora9%
Gregorio Morachioli8%
Mehdi Dorval8%
Ilias Koutsoupias7%
Mattia Maita6%
Karlo Lulić6%
Raffaele Maiello6%
Marco Nasti5%
Mattia Aramu5%
Ismail Achik4%
Francesco Vicari3%
Brenno0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Malcom Edjouma0%
Davide Diaw0%
Ahmad Benali0%
Gianluca Frabotta0%
George Pușcaș0%
Raffaele Pucino0%
Marco Pissardo0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Nicola Bellomo0%
Valerio Di Cesare0%
Žan Žužek0%
Vincenzo Colangiuli0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Giuseppe Sibilli22%
George Pușcaș18%
Davide Diaw17%
Marco Nasti14%
Ismail Achik13%
Gennaro Acampora9%
Ilias Koutsoupias7%
Valerio Di Cesare6%
Karlo Lulić6%
Malcom Edjouma5%
Raffaele Pucino4%
Mattia Maita3%
Brenno0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Gregorio Morachioli0%
Francesco Vicari0%
Ahmad Benali0%
Raffaele Maiello0%
Gianluca Frabotta0%
Marco Pissardo0%
Giacomo Ricci0%
Mattia Aramu0%
Jérémy Ménez0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Nicola Bellomo0%
Žan Žužek0%
Mehdi Dorval0%
Yayah Kallon0%
Vincenzo Colangiuli0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Sampdoria
Brescia
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Modena
Reggiana
Pisa
Cittadella
Spezia
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo
Lecco