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Tolmin vs Bistrica Result & Analysis

Date: 11/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 3-5
Tolmin
Tolmin
Vs
18%
27%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tolmin win✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica win✓ Hit
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TolminTolmin

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D20W05L05L02L02L02L01L04L05LA·SLO09/03A·DEK15/03H·DRA22/03A·ALU28/03H·ILI05/04A·GOR11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI25/04H·RUD03/05A·TRI07/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.830.801.400.732.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.771.830.801.400.732.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W31W22D22D23L21W40W00D00D21WH·GOR09/03A·BEL15/03H·BRI21/03A·RUD28/03H·TRI06/04H·SLO11/04A·NŠ 19/04H·TAB27/04A·BIL03/05H·KRK08/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.302.131.271.271.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.701.302.131.271.271.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
0-1
12.4%
0-2
11.1%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
9.4%
0-3
6.1%
1-0
5.9%
1-3
5.2%
Tolmin goals ↓
Bistrica goals →
01234
09.4%12%11%6.1%2.5%
15.9%13%9.5%5.2%2.1%
23.0%5.0%4.1%2.2%0.9%
30.9%1.4%1.2%0.6%0.3%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tolmin goals (down), columns = Bistrica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aluminij
2.13
Triglav
2.10
Gorica
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.83
Tabor Sežana
1.80
Bistrica
1.70
Dravinja
1.50
Krka
1.27
Beltinci
1.10
Bilje
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.10
Dekani
1.07
Rudar
1.07
Ilirija
0.87
Tolmin
0.73
NŠ Drava
0.67
Tolmin is 0.97 points worse than Bistrica in terms of average points per game (0.73 vs 1.70).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Gorica
2.00
Bistrica
2.00
Aluminij
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.93
Tabor Sežana
1.90
Beltinci
1.33
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.17
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13
Dekani
1.07
Ilirija
0.93
Krka
0.93
Rudar
0.90
Tolmin
0.87
NŠ Drava
0.73
Tolmin is 1.13 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Aluminij
0.93
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.03
Krka
1.07
Triglav
1.10
Gorica
1.13
Tabor Sežana
1.17
Dravinja
1.20
Bistrica
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Rudar
1.47
Bilje
1.50
Beltinci
1.60
Ilirija
1.63
Dekani
1.87
Tolmin
2.07
NŠ Drava
2.17
Tolmin is 0.80 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 1.27).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TolminTolmin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W03L03L00D00D01L00D01L02LA·SLO09/03A·DEK15/03H·DRA22/03A·ALU28/03H·ILI05/04A·GOR11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI25/04H·RUD03/05A·TRI07/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.400.530.331.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.370.900.400.530.331.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W11D11D11D10W20W00D00D11DH·GOR09/03A·BEL15/03H·BRI21/03A·RUD28/03H·TRI06/04H·SLO11/04A·NŠ 19/04H·TAB27/04A·BIL03/05H·KRK08/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.670.930.730.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.770.670.930.730.600.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TolminTolmin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W02L02L02L02L01L01L03L03LA·SLO09/03A·DEK15/03H·DRA22/03A·ALU28/03H·ILI05/04A·GOR11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI25/04H·RUD03/05A·TRI07/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.930.400.870.401.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.400.930.400.870.401.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W11D11D12L11D20W00D00D10WH·GOR09/03A·BEL15/03H·BRI21/03A·RUD28/03H·TRI06/04H·SLO11/04A·NŠ 19/04H·TAB27/04A·BIL03/05H·KRK08/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.631.200.530.670.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.930.631.200.530.670.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
TOL wins
0
Draws
1
BIS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tolmin vs Bistrica · H/A from TOL
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/24ABistrica Vs TOL4-2
05/05/24HTOL Vs Bistrica4-1
14/10/23ABistrica Vs TOL0-1

TolminTolmin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/25ATriglav Vs TOL5-0
03/05/25HTOL Vs Rudar0-4
25/04/25ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs TOL1-0
18/04/25HTOL Vs Beltinci0-2
11/04/25AGorica Vs TOL2-0
05/04/25HTOL Vs Ilirija0-2
28/03/25AAluminij Vs TOL5-0
22/03/25HTOL Vs Dravinja0-5
15/03/25ADekani Vs TOL0-2
09/03/25ASlovan Ljubljana Vs TOL1-1

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/25HBIS Vs Krka2-1
03/05/25ABilje Vs BIS0-0
27/04/25HBIS Vs Tabor Sežana0-0
19/04/25ANŠ Drava Vs BIS0-4
11/04/25HBIS Vs Slovan Ljubljana2-1
06/04/25HBIS Vs Triglav2-3
28/03/25ARudar Vs BIS2-2
21/03/25HBIS Vs Brinje-Grosuplje2-2
15/03/25ABeltinci Vs BIS1-3
09/03/25HBIS Vs Gorica1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tolmin
Tolmin
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.92
HomeWLLLL1.12
AwayWLLLL0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%29%15%
AVG goals2.622.502.73
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored0.921.040.81
Conceded1.701.461.92
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.52
HomeDLWDW1.88
AwayDWDWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%54%25%
AVG goals3.123.422.79
Over 1.5 %82%77%88%
Over 2.5 %60%65%54%
Over 3.5 %46%50%42%
Scored1.662.001.29
Conceded1.461.421.50
BTTS64%69%58%
Clean Sheet28%27%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AluminijAluminij3064
67%
2.1
5928+31
2.9
83%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.00.9
-
2TriglavTriglav3063
67%
2.1
7233+39
3.5
80%
60%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.1
-
3GoricaGorica3059
57%
2.0
6034+26
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.1
-
4Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3055
53%
1.8
5831+27
3.0
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3054
47%
1.8
5735+22
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.2
-
6BistricaBistrica3051
43%
1.7
6038+22
3.3
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.3
-
7DravinjaDravinja3045
43%
1.5
3736+1
2.4
63%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8KrkaKrka3038
33%
1.3
2832-4
2.0
63%
37%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
9Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3033
27%
1.1
3439-5
2.4
80%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
10BeltinciBeltinci3033
30%
1.1
4048-8
2.9
87%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.6
-
11BiljeBilje3033
27%
1.1
3545-10
2.7
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.5
-
12RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
2744-17
2.4
70%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.91.5
-
13DekaniDekani3032
30%
1.1
3256-24
2.9
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.9
-
14IlirijaIlirija3026
17%
0.9
2849-21
2.6
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.6
-
15TolminTolmin3022
20%
0.7
2662-36
2.9
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
16NŠ DravaNŠ Drava3020
17%
0.7
2265-43
2.9
77%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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