This opponent (Chesterfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.20
1.71
1.07
1.31
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.60
1.47
2.14
1.29
1.12
1.62
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
0.93
1.29
0.86
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.8%
@ 2.14+4.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.68-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.5%
0-2
8.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
Tranmere goals ↓
Chesterfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
9.6%
8.1%
4.1%
1.5%
1
6.9%
13%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.6%
6.9%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.7%
2.6%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tranmere goals (down), columns = Chesterfield goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Doncaster
1.83
Port Vale
1.74
Bradford
1.70
Walsall
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
1.59
Notts County
1.57
Chesterfield
1.52
Salford
1.50
Grimsby
1.48
Colchester
1.46
Bromley
1.43
Swindon
1.35
Crewe
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
Barrow
1.28
Gillingham
1.26
Harrogate
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Tranmere
1.11
Accrington
1.09
Newport County
1.07
Carlisle
0.91
Morecambe
0.78
Tranmere is 0.41 points worse than Chesterfield in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.52).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Walsall
1.63
Doncaster
1.59
Chesterfield
1.59
Swindon
1.54
Notts County
1.48
Port Vale
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Bradford
1.39
Salford
1.39
Grimsby
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Accrington
1.15
Colchester
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Newport County
1.13
Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.07
Tranmere
0.98
Carlisle
0.96
Harrogate
0.93
Gillingham
0.89
Morecambe
0.87
Tranmere is 0.61 goals worse than Chesterfield in terms of goals scored per game (0.98 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Wimbledon
0.76
Bradford
0.98
Port Vale
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Colchester
1.02
Crewe
1.04
Notts County
1.07
Doncaster
1.09
Barrow
1.09
Walsall
1.17
Salford
1.17
Chesterfield
1.17
Bromley
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Harrogate
1.33
Swindon
1.37
Tranmere
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Grimsby
1.46
Accrington
1.50
Cheltenham
1.52
Carlisle
1.54
Morecambe
1.57
Newport County
1.65
Tranmere is 0.24 goals worse than Chesterfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
62%
Chesterfield
61%
Milton Keynes Dons
60%
Carlisle
53%
Swindon
52%
Salford
52%
Doncaster
52%
Tranmere
52%
Colchester
51%
Port Vale
51%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
AFC Wimbledon
49%
Gillingham
49%
Grimsby
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Barrow
47%
Newport County
47%
Cheltenham
45%
Morecambe
45%
Accrington
45%
Walsall
44%
Harrogate
43%
Bromley
42%
Tranmere is 9.9 percentage points worse than Chesterfield in terms of average possession (52% vs 61%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tranmere
For 5.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.2 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chesterfield
For 6.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 10.4 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tranmere
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
22.4
23.2
21.6
vs Stronger (6)
10.6
11.5
10.0
3.2
2.5
3.5
21.0
24.0
19.0
vs Similar (40)
9.4
9.2
9.6
4.2
4.2
4.2
22.4
23.1
21.6
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
12.5
11.5
3.2
3.5
3.0
24.8
24.5
25.0
% over line
51%
58%
43%
64%
62%
67%
51%
62%
39%
% under line
49%
42%
57%
36%
38%
33%
49%
38%
61%
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.3
10.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
22.1
20.4
23.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
10.1
9.4
10.8
3.6
4.1
3.2
22.8
21.7
23.9
vs Weaker (22)
10.4
11.6
9.2
4.5
3.8
4.9
21.2
18.6
23.6
% over line
56%
53%
60%
66%
65%
67%
51%
42%
60%
% under line
44%
47%
40%
34%
35%
33%
49%
58%
40%
This opponent (Tranmere) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morecambe
10.7
Doncaster
10.6
Harrogate
10.6
Carlisle
10.4
Bromley
10.3
Chesterfield
10.2
Notts County
10.0
Port Vale
9.9
Fleetwood Town
9.9
Swindon
9.9
Newport County
9.9
Walsall
9.8
Tranmere
9.8
Crewe
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Barrow
9.6
Grimsby
9.5
Colchester
9.4
Bradford
9.2
Accrington
9.1
Salford
9.0
AFC Wimbledon
8.9
Milton Keynes Dons
8.7
Gillingham
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Accrington
4.7
Bradford
4.6
Gillingham
4.5
Salford
4.5
Colchester
4.4
Crewe
4.3
Chesterfield
4.3
Grimsby
4.3
Carlisle
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
AFC Wimbledon
4.1
Doncaster
4.1
Barrow
4.1
Notts County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Morecambe
3.8
Newport County
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Port Vale
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.6
Swindon
3.3
Harrogate
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
25.2
Grimsby
25.1
Salford
24.7
Cheltenham
24.6
Morecambe
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Colchester
24.2
Doncaster
23.8
Gillingham
23.6
Crewe
23.4
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.3
Newport County
23.0
Tranmere
22.3
Carlisle
22.2
Chesterfield
22.1
Fleetwood Town
22.1
Barrow
22.0
Port Vale
22.0
Harrogate
21.9
Walsall
21.4
Swindon
21.1
Notts County
20.9
Bromley
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.1%
Under 9.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
69.7%
Under 21.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tranmere
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.56
0.69
0.29
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.58
0.62
0.69
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.73
0.71
0.86
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.33
0.57
0.43
0.38
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tranmere over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tranmere
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.44
0.36
1.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.38
1.00
0.38
0.46
0.36
1.64
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.07
0.43
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.73
1.43
0.43
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.60
0.71
0.43
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tranmere over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tranmere · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Ince33%
Zane Okoro33%
Jordan Turnbull0%
Nathan James Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
Sam Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joel Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Jacob Slater0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nathan James Smith33%
Tom Ince33%
Sam Finley33%
Joe Ironside33%
Joel Senior33%
Jacob Slater33%
Jordan Turnbull0%
Tom Conlon0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zane Okoro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Turnbull33%
Tom Conlon33%
Joel Senior33%
Nathan James Smith0%
Tom Ince0%
Sam Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Jacob Slater0%
Zane Okoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zane Okoro33%
Jordan Turnbull0%
Nathan James Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
Tom Ince0%
Sam Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joel Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Jacob Slater0%
Chesterfield · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liam Mandeville33%
Lee Bonis33%
George James McEachran0%
Josh Koroma0%
Ryan Boot0%
Jack Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
Remeao Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
Dilan Markanday0%
Lewis Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Mandeville33%
Josh Koroma33%
Jack Simpson33%
Kyle McFadzean33%
Lee Bonis33%
George James McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
Tom Naylor0%
Remeao Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
Dilan Markanday0%
Lewis Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
George James McEachran0%
Liam Mandeville0%
Josh Koroma0%
Ryan Boot0%
Jack Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
Remeao Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
Lee Bonis0%
Dilan Markanday0%
Lewis Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Koroma33%
Lee Bonis33%
George James McEachran0%
Liam Mandeville0%
Ryan Boot0%
Jack Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
Remeao Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
Dilan Markanday0%
Lewis Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (24)
€15m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Tranmere's squad is €2m less valuable than Chesterfield's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (8)
€5m
BRA (9)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Tranmere's attack is €2m less valuable than Chesterfield's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€7m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Tranmere and Chesterfield have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Tranmere and Chesterfield have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Doncaster
Port Vale
Bradford
Walsall
AFC Wimbledon
Notts County
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Bromley
Swindon
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
Barrow
Gillingham
Harrogate
Milton Keynes Dons
Accrington
Newport County
Carlisle
Morecambe