Triglav are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model’s pick for a home win. The odds lean 51% for Triglav, 26% for a draw and 23% for Bistrica. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.2% chance. Triglav, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Bistrica, on the road, averages 1.07 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, a 79.5% probability. The match is expected to see a 51% chance of a Triglav victory, 26% for a draw and 23% for a Bistrica win. The model’s pick remains the most likely outcome, with the single scoreline 1-1 standing out as the most probable.
Results analysis
The win extends Triglav’s recent run, while Bistrica continues a two-game winning streak. The final score was 3-1, confirming a home win. The model had picked a home win with a 51% probability, and that call was correct. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.5% chance, hit as well. No other selections were listed. The match delivered on the model’s expectations, with Triglav’s victory and the total goals exceeding the predicted 2.9. The outcome aligned neatly with the forecast, showcasing the model’s accuracy in both result and goal-related predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Triglav win✓ Hit
50.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Triglav
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.30
1.29
1.21
1.44
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.24
1.40
1.40
1.43
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
1.38
1.00
0.75
1.44
1.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bistrica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.80
2.00
1.60
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.53
1.80
2.00
1.60
1.07
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.6%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
3-1 ✓
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
Triglav goals ↓
Bistrica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
5.2%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.6%
12%
6.3%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.7%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.0%
5.7%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.2%
2.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Triglav goals (down), columns = Bistrica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aluminij
2.13
Triglav
2.10
Gorica
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.83
Tabor Sežana
1.80
Bistrica
1.70
Dravinja
1.50
Krka
1.27
Beltinci
1.10
Bilje
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.10
Dekani
1.07
Rudar
1.07
Ilirija
0.87
Tolmin
0.73
NŠ Drava
0.67
Triglav is 0.40 points better than Bistrica in terms of average points per game (2.10 vs 1.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Gorica
2.00
Bistrica
2.00
Aluminij
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.93
Tabor Sežana
1.90
Beltinci
1.33
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.17
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13
Dekani
1.07
Ilirija
0.93
Krka
0.93
Rudar
0.90
Tolmin
0.87
NŠ Drava
0.73
Triglav is 0.40 goals better than Bistrica in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Aluminij
0.93
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.03
Krka
1.07
Triglav
1.10
Gorica
1.13
Tabor Sežana
1.17
Dravinja
1.20
Bistrica
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Rudar
1.47
Bilje
1.50
Beltinci
1.60
Ilirija
1.63
Dekani
1.87
Tolmin
2.07
NŠ Drava
2.17
Triglav is 0.17 goals better than Bistrica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Triglav
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.79
0.64
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.65
0.80
0.80
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.77
0.75
0.25
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bistrica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.67
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.47
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Triglav over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Triglav
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.59
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bistrica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.00
1.13
0.87
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
1.00
1.13
0.87
0.60
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Triglav over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
Triglav's squad is €1m more valuable than Bistrica's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Triglav and Bistrica have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Triglav and Bistrica have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Triglav and Bistrica have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →