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Triglav vs Gorica Result & Analysis

Date: 03/10/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 3-0
Triglav
Triglav
Vs
51%
24%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gorica
Gorica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Triglav win✓ Hit
51.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gorica win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TriglavTriglav

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W14L10W12L02L20W41W30W22D42WA·NK 29/05H·NK 01/06A·BIL09/08H·BEL15/08A·BRI23/08A·ILI03/09H·SLO07/09A·RUD12/09H·KRK20/09A·DRA28/09← 1. SNL2. SNL →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.301.172.801.331.801.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.311.691.602.201.121.38
vs Weaker (17)3.060.763.400.902.570.57
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GoricaGorica

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W12L00D12L01L22D01L11D03L22DA·BEL18/05H·BRI25/05A·JES10/08H·DEK16/08A·TAB24/08H·BIS31/08A·NAF06/09H·BIL13/09A·BEL20/09H·BRI26/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.231.621.311.431.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.131.001.621.000.571.00
vs Weaker (15)1.931.471.621.622.291.29
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.3%
Under 1.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.7%
Under 2.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.5%
Under 3.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.4%
1-0
6.6%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
6.2%
3-1
6.2%
0-0
4.9%
Triglav goals ↓
Gorica goals →
01234
04.9%4.1%3.3%1.5%0.5%
16.6%11%6.5%2.8%0.9%
27.4%9.6%6.2%2.7%0.9%
34.7%6.2%4.0%1.7%0.6%
42.3%3.0%1.9%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Triglav goals (down), columns = Gorica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Triglav is 1.40 points better than Gorica in terms of average points per game (2.13 vs 0.73).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Triglav is 1.37 goals better than Gorica in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Triglav is 0.57 goals better than Gorica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TriglavTriglav

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L00D11D01L10W20W20W21W31WA·NK 29/05H·NK 01/06A·BIL09/08H·BEL15/08A·BRI23/08A·ILI03/09H·SLO07/09A·RUD12/09H·KRK20/09A·DRA28/09← 1. SNL2. SNL →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.471.400.600.730.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.540.690.801.200.380.38
vs Weaker (17)1.470.291.700.301.140.29
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GoricaGorica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L00D01L00D11D00D01L01L11DA·BEL18/05H·BRI25/05A·JES10/08H·DEK16/08A·TAB24/08H·BIS31/08A·NAF06/09H·BIL13/09A·BEL20/09H·BRI26/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.430.560.500.570.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.330.400.380.500.290.29
vs Weaker (15)0.800.470.750.500.860.43
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Triglav over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TriglavTriglav

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W11D10W01L01L10W21W10W01L11DA·NK 29/05H·NK 01/06A·BIL09/08H·BEL15/08A·BRI23/08A·ILI03/09H·SLO07/09A·RUD12/09H·KRK20/09A·DRA28/09← 1. SNL2. SNL →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.701.400.731.070.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.771.000.801.000.751.00
vs Weaker (17)1.590.471.700.601.430.29
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GoricaGorica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D00D11D01L11D01L10W02L11DA·BEL18/05H·BRI25/05A·JES10/08H·DEK16/08A·TAB24/08H·BIS31/08A·NAF06/09H·BIL13/09A·BEL20/09H·BRI26/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.801.060.810.860.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.800.601.250.500.290.71
vs Weaker (15)1.131.000.881.121.430.86
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Triglav over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
TRI wins
1
Draws
3
GOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Triglav vs Gorica · H/A from TRI
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/25AGorica Vs TRI2-0
16/08/24HTRI Vs Gorica2-3
13/04/24AGorica Vs TRI0-0
24/09/23HTRI Vs Gorica0-3

TriglavTriglav

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25ADravinja Vs TRI2-4
20/09/25HTRI Vs Krka2-2
12/09/25ARudar Vs TRI0-3
07/09/25HTRI Vs Slovan Ljubljana4-1
03/09/25AIlirija Vs TRI0-2
23/08/25ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs TRI2-0
15/08/25HTRI Vs Beltinci1-2
09/08/25ABilje Vs TRI0-1
01/06/25HTRI Vs NK Domzale1-4
29/05/25ANK Domzale Vs TRI1-3

GoricaGorica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25HGOR Vs Brinje-Grosuplje2-2
20/09/25ABeltinci Vs GOR3-0
13/09/25HGOR Vs Bilje1-1
06/09/25ANafta Vs GOR1-0
31/08/25HGOR Vs Bistrica2-2
24/08/25ATabor Sežana Vs GOR1-0
16/08/25HGOR Vs Dekani1-2
10/08/25AJesenice Vs GOR0-0
25/05/25HGOR Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-2
18/05/25ABeltinci Vs GOR1-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Triglav
Triglav
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.92
HomeWLLWD1.83
AwayWLWWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%58%62%
AVG goals3.283.712.88
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %60%71%50%
Over 3.5 %46%54%38%
Scored2.102.381.85
Conceded1.181.331.04
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet36%38%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Gorica
Gorica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLD1.70
HomeLLDDD1.64
AwayWDLLL1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%44%48%
AVG goals2.943.042.84
Over 1.5 %78%92%64%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %40%32%48%
Scored1.781.721.84
Conceded1.161.321.00
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet34%32%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
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Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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