Udinese’s home form shows a solid defense, conceding only 0.43 goals per game against stronger opposition, yet their attack lags at one goal per match. Lazio, playing away, has a slightly weaker defensive record of 0.57 goals conceded but struggles offensively, scoring just 0.71 on the road. The model picks an away win, with a 36% chance for Lazio, 32% for a draw and 32% for Udinese. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.2% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (98.9% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% with a 5% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2% with a 5% edge). The match is poised for a tight, low-scoring affair.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Udinese win
31.4%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.91
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.05
Betano
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Pinnacle
2.96
Dafabet
2.95
Draw
32.5%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.10
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.22
Dafabet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Marathonbet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Lazio win
36.1%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.55
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.63
Dafabet
2.60
10Bet
2.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Udinese
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.20
0.87
1.00
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.10
0.60
0.60
1.60
1.60
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.25
1.00
1.20
1.60
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.40
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
0.86
1.57
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.79
1.71
1.00
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Udinese) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.6%
@ 1.41-3.1%
Under 1.5
36.4%
@ 2.83+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
Betano
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.3%
@ 2.31-6.0%
Under 2.5
64.7%
@ 1.62+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
SBO
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Under
1xBet
1.68
Unibet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.3%
@ 4.26-5.7%
Under 3.5
83.7%
@ 1.20+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.60
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.15
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Both teams to score
Yes
43.8%
@ 1.91-5.1%
No
56.2%
@ 1.82+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.95
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.91
No
Unibet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%@ 5.63+6.8%
0-0
13.5%@ 7.55+7.5%
0-1
12.0%@ 6.81+5.4%
1-0
10.9%@ 7.37+4.8%
1-2
7.4%@ 9.45+2.6%
0-2
7.3%@ 11.18+3.3%
2-1
6.8%@ 10.16+2.4%
2-0
6.2%@ 12.90+2.7%
Udinese goals ↓
Lazio goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
12%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.7%
2
6.2%
6.8%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.1%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Udinese goals (down), columns = Lazio goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Udinese is 0.11 points worse than Lazio in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Udinese is 0.11 goals better than Lazio in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Udinese is 0.21 goals worse than Lazio in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Udinese is 4.7 percentage points worse than Lazio in terms of average possession (46% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Udinese
For 4.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lazio
For 4.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Udinese
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.0
9.4
3.7
4.0
3.4
25.1
26.6
23.7
vs Stronger (17)
9.3
8.4
10.1
3.5
3.8
3.3
24.2
25.9
22.8
vs Similar (33)
9.2
9.3
9.0
3.8
4.1
3.4
25.6
26.9
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
44%
40%
52%
60%
44%
78%
80%
76%
% under line
58%
56%
60%
48%
40%
56%
22%
20%
24%
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.0
8.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
24.9
25.3
24.4
vs Stronger (6)
6.3
6.3
6.3
5.0
6.7
3.3
24.3
23.7
25.0
vs Similar (21)
9.6
10.1
9.1
5.8
6.5
5.2
24.4
25.9
23.1
vs Weaker (23)
8.4
8.7
8.2
4.6
3.8
5.5
25.4
25.2
25.6
% over line
34%
32%
36%
74%
76%
72%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
66%
68%
64%
26%
24%
28%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Udinese) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.0%
@ 2.08-4.6%
Under 9.5
60.0%
@ 1.67+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.02
Unibet
1.91
Under
Unibet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.59
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.2%
@ 1.32-10.6%
Under 3.5
39.8%
@ 3.20+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Under
Betano
3.20
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.8%
Under 21.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Udinese or Draw
61.0%
Avg Implied 62.9% · @ 1.50
Edge
-1.9%
31%
33%
36%
covers Udinese + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Unibet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Udinese or Lazio
64.9%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.35
Edge
-4.9%
31%
33%
36%
covers Udinese + Lazio
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Draw or Lazio
74.1%
Avg Implied 67.4% · @ 1.40
Edge
+6.8%
31%
33%
36%
covers Draw + Lazio
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Udinese over/under 0.5
Over
54.2%
@ 1.40-12.5%
Under
45.8%
@ 2.80+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Udinese over/under 1.5
Over
18.4%
@ 2.97-13.0%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.36+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.14
Marathonbet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Udinese over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
@ 7.54-7.9%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.06+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Udinese over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
@ 17.38-4.7%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Lazio over/under 0.5
Over
64.0%
@ 1.33-5.9%
Under
36.0%
@ 3.09+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Marathonbet
3.02
Lazio over/under 1.5
Over
27.2%
@ 2.68-7.7%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.44+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Marathonbet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Lazio over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
@ 6.58-5.7%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.08+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.75
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Lazio over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
@ 14.75-4.5%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Udinese, so a minus line means Udinese give that many goals of a start and Lazio receive them. At -1, Udinese must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Udinese win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Udinese)
Udinese -2
1.9%
@ 14.22-4.3%
Draw -2
6.5%
@ 7.53-5.4%
Lazio +2
91.5%
@ 1.09+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
14.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Udinese)
Udinese -1
8.5%
@ 6.39-5.7%
Draw -1
17.4%
@ 4.30-3.6%
Lazio +1
74.1%
@ 1.40+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.25
10Bet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Handicap +1 (Udinese)
Udinese +1
61.0%
@ 1.49+0.8%
Draw +1
23.2%
@ 3.96+0.5%
Lazio -1
15.8%
@ 5.25-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.54
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Unibet
4.80
Handicap +2 (Udinese)
Udinese +2
84.2%
@ 1.12+4.6%
Draw +2
11.1%
@ 6.80-2.0%
Lazio -2
4.6%
@ 12.14-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.70
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Udinese
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.40
0.33
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.40
0.80
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.50
0.60
0.30
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.57
0.47
0.80
0.13
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.69
0.43
1.00
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.29
0.36
0.57
0.43
0.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Udinese) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.1%
@ 1.49+2.2%
Under 0.5
34.9%
@ 2.52-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
William Hil
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.60
1xBet
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
25.9%
@ 3.30-2.6%
Under 1.5
74.1%
@ 1.31+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Under
Unibet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.3%
@ 8.83-2.3%
Under 2.5
91.7%
@ 1.05+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
9.50
William Hil
9.50
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Udinese over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.4%
@ 2.34+3.7%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.55-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.36
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Under
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Udinese over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.0%
@ 8.30-2.1%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Betano
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
Udinese over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
@ 14.00-4.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Lazio over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.3%
@ 2.23-2.6%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.61+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.20
Under
Unibet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Lazio over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.6%
@ 7.21-4.3%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.06+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Lazio over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
@ 12.50-6.3%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Udinese
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.47
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.20
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.75
0.40
0.90
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.43
0.57
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
1.14
0.57
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Udinese) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.31+2.1%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 3.30-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Betano
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.3%
@ 2.41+0.5%
Under 1.5
60.7%
@ 1.53-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
1xBet
2.47
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 5.59-2.1%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.12+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.70
Unibet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Udinese over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.0%
@ 1.96+1.6%
Under
51.0%
@ 1.77-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Udinese over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.4%
@ 5.88+0.7%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.10-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.25
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Udinese over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
@ 11.50-5.5%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Lazio over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.3%
@ 1.86-1.7%
Under
51.7%
@ 1.85+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Lazio over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
@ 5.38-5.5%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.12+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Lazio over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
@ 10.75-6.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
Under 5.5
99.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+4.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Under 4.5
96.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+7.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
95.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+7.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
+2.3%
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.7%
Away +2 handicap
91.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
+9.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+4.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
-
+2.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+5.5%
Over 19.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+2.1%
Home +2 handicap
84.2%
1.12
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+4.6%
Under 3.5
83.7%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+5.7%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-0.7%
Home under 1.5 goals
81.6%
1.36
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
+13.0%
Under 11.5 corners
81.2%
1.22
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+6.4%
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
1.23
Betano
1.23
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
Over 21.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
-
+20.0%
Under 1.5 HT goals
74.1%
1.31
Unibet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
+2.6%
Draw or Away
74.1%
1.40
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
+6.8%
Away +1 handicap
74.1%
1.40
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
+9.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.8%
1.31
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
+2.1%
Away under 1.5 goals
72.8%
1.44
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+7.7%
Under 10.5 corners
71.7%
1.39
Unibet
1.47
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.32
-
+5.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Udinese
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Kamara50%
Jürgen Ekkelenkamp33%
J. Piotrowski33%
Keinan Davis33%
Oumar Solet0%
M. Vojvoda0%
Enzo Ebosse0%
J. Karlström0%
Maduka Okoye0%
Oier Zarraga0%
James Abankwah0%
Unai Gómez0%
L. Miller0%
Juan Arizala0%
I. Gueye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Piotrowski33%
J. Karlström25%
James Abankwah25%
Unai Gómez25%
Jürgen Ekkelenkamp0%
Oumar Solet0%
M. Vojvoda0%
Keinan Davis0%
Enzo Ebosse0%
H. Kamara0%
Maduka Okoye0%
Oier Zarraga0%
L. Miller0%
Juan Arizala0%
I. Gueye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jürgen Ekkelenkamp33%
Keinan Davis33%
Oumar Solet25%
M. Vojvoda25%
H. Kamara25%
J. Piotrowski0%
Enzo Ebosse0%
J. Karlström0%
Maduka Okoye0%
Oier Zarraga0%
James Abankwah0%
Unai Gómez0%
L. Miller0%
Juan Arizala0%
I. Gueye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Kamara25%
I. Gueye25%
Jürgen Ekkelenkamp0%
Oumar Solet0%
J. Piotrowski0%
M. Vojvoda0%
Keinan Davis0%
Enzo Ebosse0%
J. Karlström0%
Maduka Okoye0%
Oier Zarraga0%
James Abankwah0%
Unai Gómez0%
L. Miller0%
Juan Arizala0%
Lazio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davide Frattesi67%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matteo Cancellieri67%
Boulaye Dia33%
Nicolò Rovella33%
Mattia Zaccagni33%
Oliver Provstgaard33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Boulaye Dia33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kenneth Taylor33%
Matteo Cancellieri33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Udinese's squad is €83m less valuable than Lazio's (€157m vs €240m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Udinese's attack is €14m less valuable than Lazio's (€46m vs €60m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Udinese's midfield is €48m less valuable than Lazio's (€39m vs €86m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Udinese's defence is €21m less valuable than Lazio's (€72m vs €93m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina