PythiaFootballBETA
Union St. Gilloise is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 68% chance of success at home. The model's high rating is largely due to Anderlecht's struggles on the road, which should play into Union St. Gilloise's hands. The home side has been decent at scoring at home, averaging 1.62 goals per match, while conceding just 0.38 goals. Meanwhile, Anderlecht has been inconsistent on the road, but has shown some scoring prowess, averaging 1.54 goals per match.
The model predicts a 26% chance of exactly 2 goals being scored, with the most likely scoreline being 2-0, occurring with a 14.2% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.6.
The model's selection is the home win, occurring with a 68% probability. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, which is expected to hit with a 74.4% probability, and Under 3.5, expected to miss with a 73.3% probability.
In terms of probabilities, the home win is 68%, the draw is 22%, and the away win is 10%. The suggested picks are: Over 1.5 (74.4%), Under 3.5 (73.3%).
The win extends their run of form, with Union St. Gilloise now unbeaten in two matches. The actual total of 6 goals was well clear of the expected 2.6 goals. The final score was 5-1 in favour of the home team. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 68%. The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite. The model's selection, Over 1.5, hit, with a probability of 74.4%, while Under 3.5 missed, with a probability of 73.3%.
Union St. Gilloise| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.80 | 1.60 | 0.53 | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (3) | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 1.27 | 0.73 | 1.62 | 0.38 | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Anderlecht| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.60 | 1.73 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.56 | 2.11 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.47 | 1.37 | 1.90 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Anderlecht goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13% | 10% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 9.3% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Union St. GilloiseAnderlechtUnion St. Gilloise| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 9.5 | - | 9.5 | 2.5 | - | 2.5 | 17.5 | - | 17.5 |
| vs Similar (6) | 8.2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 22.3 | 21.2 | 24.5 |
| vs Weaker (42) | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.8 |
| % over line | 52% | 58% | 46% | 66% | 54% | 77% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| % under line | 48% | 42% | 54% | 34% | 46% | 23% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Anderlecht| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 24.9 | 24.8 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 7.2 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 22.8 | 22.3 | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (18) | 10.2 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 25.2 | 23.6 | 26.4 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 11.0 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 25.0 | 26.1 | 23.9 |
| % over line | 70% | 71% | 70% | 70% | 80% | 60% | 81% | 83% | 78% |
| % under line | 30% | 29% | 30% | 30% | 20% | 40% | 19% | 17% | 22% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 31/08/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/02/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 01/09/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/05/24 | H | 0-0 |
Union St. Gilloise| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
Anderlecht| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 | Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 |  St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 | Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 |  Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 |  KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 |  KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 |  Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |