PythiaFootballBETA
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv are expected to win this match against Veres Rivne, with the team coming off a defeat but having a strong recent form away from home. They have averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.5 conceded in away matches against weaker opponents. In contrast, Veres Rivne have struggled at home, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 49% chance of an away win, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of a home win. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability.
The model's selection is the away team to win, with a 49% chance. The model also selects the under 3.5 goals, with an 78.7% probability of hitting. Veres Rivne have a 21% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 50% chance of losing. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv have a 49% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 22% chance of losing.
The win extends Veres Rivne's recent run of draws, but they ultimately fell short against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv, who have been improving on the road. The final score was 0-1, confirming the actual result of an away win. The model's selection, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 49%. The model's call was also on the money, with the away side coming out on top. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals was also correct, hitting at 78.7%.
Veres Rivne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 0.90 | 1.75 | 0.70 | 1.80 | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.90 | 0.50 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.63 | 1.12 | 0.56 | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 2.00 | 0.22 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Metalist 1925 Kharkiv goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 13% | 10% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 14% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Veres RivneMetalist 1925 KharkivVeres Rivne| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 22.1 | 26.3 | 20.1 |
| vs Stronger (30) | 10.7 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 19.8 | 25.2 | 17.0 |
| vs Similar (20) | 9.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 24.9 | 27.7 | 23.7 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 59% | 43% | 67% | 16% | 18% | 14% | 55% | 86% | 40% |
| % under line | 41% | 57% | 33% | 84% | 82% | 86% | 45% | 14% | 60% |
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.3 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 22.1 | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 9.4 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 21.8 |
| vs Similar (20) | 12.0 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 12.2 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 22.6 | 23.0 | 22.0 |
| % over line | 65% | 86% | 50% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 53% | 57% | 50% |
| % under line | 35% | 14% | 50% | 86% | 85% | 87% | 47% | 43% | 50% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 25/05/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/11/23 | H | 4-3 | |
| 14/05/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 1-4 |
Veres Rivne| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/03/26 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 72 | 73% | 2.4 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 3.1 | 70% | 60% | 47% | 9.1 | 36% | 3.2 | 43% | 19.1 | 14% | 224 | 147 | 19 | 58 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 68% |
| 2 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 1.9 | 53% | 27% | 13% | 9.0 | 42% | 3.8 | 47% | 20.3 | 42% | 25 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 44% |
| 3 |  Polessya | 30 | 59 | 60% | 2.0 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 2.4 | 70% | 40% | 30% | 8.8 | 22% | 3.1 | 21% | 19.1 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 57% |
| 4 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 3.4 | 80% | 70% | 43% | 10.8 | 62% | 3.1 | 38% | 20.2 | 38% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 62% |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 51 | 43% | 1.7 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 1.8 | 57% | 23% | 17% | 11.3 | 65% | 3.6 | 41% | 22.1 | 53% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 56% |
| 6 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 49 | 43% | 1.6 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 1.8 | 57% | 27% | 13% | 7.9 | 35% | 4.2 | 65% | 26.5 | 88% | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 49% |
| 7 |  Kryvbas KR | 30 | 48 | 43% | 1.6 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 3.3 | 80% | 67% | 40% | 11.7 | 59% | 3.5 | 41% | 22.9 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 8 |  Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 46 | 40% | 1.5 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 2.6 | 73% | 53% | 33% | 10.6 | 62% | 3.2 | 38% | 22.4 | 50% | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 9 |  Karpaty | 30 | 41 | 33% | 1.4 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 2.4 | 67% | 40% | 27% | 8.7 | 31% | 4.4 | 56% | 23.6 | 69% | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 10 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 2.7 | 63% | 50% | 33% | 9.8 | 53% | 3.1 | 33% | 24.1 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 31 | 23% | 1.0 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 2.2 | 63% | 33% | 23% | 10.5 | 58% | 3.3 | 42% | 22.7 | 58% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 12 |  Kudrivka | 32 | 30 | 22% | 0.9 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 2.6 | 75% | 50% | 34% | 9.4 | 40% | 3.8 | 50% | 25.1 | 80% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 29 | 28 | 21% | 1.0 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 31% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 65% | 26.8 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 42% |
| 14 |  Ruh Lviv | 30 | 21 | 20% | 0.7 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 2.4 | 67% | 50% | 13% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.6 | 53% | 27.6 | 87% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 46% |
| 15 |  Oleksandria | 31 | 18 | 10% | 0.6 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 2.6 | 77% | 45% | 26% | 10.4 | 64% | 4.5 | 53% | 22.8 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 49% |
| 16 |  SK Poltava | 30 | 13 | 7% | 0.4 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 3.2 | 90% | 60% | 43% | 9.2 | 38% | 3.2 | 38% | 23.9 | 62% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 40% |
| 17 |  Livyi Bereh | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 18 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0% | 17.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 42% |