Victoria Bardar’s attacking rhythm, averaging three goals per home match, faces a Fălești side that concedes three at home, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model predicts a 54% chance of a home win, 20% for a draw, and 25% for an away victory, with the favourite result being a home win. The expected total of 4.2 goals and the most likely total of 6 + (24%) suggest plenty of action. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Victoria Bardar, with an 8% probability. Victoria Bardar’s home form shows a 3.0 average of goals scored and a 1.0 average conceded against similar opposition, while Fălești’s away form yields 2.0 scored and 3.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (92.7%), Over 2.5 (78.6%), and BTTS Yes (75.5%). All selections are presented with their exact percentages, and no other outcome is implied.
Results analysis
Victoria Bardar’s form has been shaky, but the recent loss to FC National Ialoveni has spurred a fightback that saw the home side secure a 6-2 victory over Fălești, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 54% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 1.5 goals, with a 92.7% chance, hit; Over 2.5 goals, at 78.6%, hit; and BTTS Yes, at 75.5%, hit. The final score of 6-2 matched the expected high-scoring affair, with the most likely total of 6+ goals materialising.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Victoria Bardar win✓ Hit
54.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Făleşti win✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Victoria Bardar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.50
1.20
2.60
2.00
2.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
4.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
2.88
0.75
3.00
1.25
2.75
Clean sheet %
0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
4.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.55
3.20
1.30
3.40
1.80
3.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (12)
1.50
3.75
1.00
4.50
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
2.33
2.00
2.00
1.67
2.67
Clean sheet %
5% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.7%
Under 1.5
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
78.6%
Under 2.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.0%
Under 3.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.5%
No
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.0%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
3-2
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
2-0
4.7%
4-1
4.1%
Victoria Bardar goals ↓
Făleşti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
2.0%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
1
3.2%
7.1%
5.5%
3.1%
1.3%
2
4.7%
8.0%
6.8%
3.9%
1.6%
3
3.9%
6.6%
5.6%
3.2%
1.4%
4
2.4%
4.1%
3.5%
2.0%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Victoria Bardar goals (down), columns = Făleşti goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.38
Floreşti
2.17
Speranis Nisporeni
2.00
Petrocub
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.75
Văsieni
1.50
Spartanii Selemet
1.33
Zimbru
1.29
Milsami Orhei
1.17
Dinamo-Auto
1.11
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
0.92
Real Succes
0.00
Făleşti
0.00
Sucleia
0.00
Speranța Drochia
0.00
Victoria Bardar is 1.00 points better than Făleşti in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Văsieni
3.00
Speranis Nisporeni
3.00
Floreşti
2.33
Spartanii Selemet
2.00
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.67
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.62
Petrocub
1.50
Dinamo-Auto
1.33
Zimbru
1.12
Real Succes
1.00
Făleşti
1.00
Sucleia
1.00
Sfîntul Gheorghe
0.92
Milsami Orhei
0.92
CSF Bălți
0.75
Speranța Drochia
0.00
Victoria Bardar is 1.00 goals better than Făleşti in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.38
Petrocub
0.71
Dacia-Buiucani
0.71
Floreşti
0.92
Speranis Nisporeni
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.08
Zimbru
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.25
Dinamo-Auto
1.41
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.46
Văsieni
1.50
Spartanii Selemet
1.92
Victoria Bardar
2.69
Speranța Drochia
4.00
Făleşti
4.91
Sucleia
6.00
Real Succes
7.00
Victoria Bardar is 2.22 goals better than Făleşti in terms of goals conceded per game (2.69 vs 4.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Victoria Bardar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.12
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.29
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.12
1.75
0.25
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
1.67
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Victoria Bardar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.38
0.25
1.50
1.25
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
1.43
0.25
1.50
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
2.88
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
2.83
0.33
3.33
1.33
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Super Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →