This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
1.06
0.50
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.53
0.67
0.33
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
1.11
1.83
0.83
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.7%
Under 1.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.8%
@ 2.35-2.3%
Under 2.5
62.2%
@ 1.57+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.7%
No
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.1%
2-0
13.4%
1-1
12.2%
0-0 ✓
12.2%
2-1
8.6%
3-0
6.9%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
4.5%
Villarreal II goals ↓
Burgos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.0%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
16%
12%
3.6%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
8.6%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
6.9%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
4
2.7%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Villarreal II goals (down), columns = Burgos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Granada CF
1.79
Levante
1.72
Alaves
1.72
Las Palmas
1.71
Eibar
1.64
Albacete
1.52
FC Andorra
1.40
Oviedo
1.40
FC Cartagena
1.38
Tenerife
1.36
Burgos
1.29
Racing Santander
1.29
Leganes
1.26
Zaragoza
1.26
Huesca
1.24
Mirandes
1.24
Villarreal II
1.19
Sporting Gijon
1.19
Malaga
1.05
Ponferradina
1.05
Ibiza
0.81
Lugo
0.74
Villarreal II is 0.10 points worse than Burgos in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Albacete
1.34
Granada CF
1.31
Villarreal II
1.17
Las Palmas
1.17
Mirandes
1.14
Levante
1.13
FC Andorra
1.12
FC Cartagena
1.12
Alaves
1.11
Eibar
1.05
Sporting Gijon
1.02
Tenerife
1.00
Ponferradina
0.95
Zaragoza
0.95
Racing Santander
0.93
Malaga
0.88
Leganes
0.88
Huesca
0.86
Oviedo
0.81
Burgos
0.79
Ibiza
0.79
Lugo
0.64
Villarreal II is 0.38 goals better than Burgos in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Las Palmas
0.69
Levante
0.70
Granada CF
0.71
Alaves
0.74
Burgos
0.83
Oviedo
0.83
Huesca
0.86
Tenerife
0.88
FC Andorra
0.88
Eibar
0.89
Zaragoza
0.93
Racing Santander
0.95
Leganes
1.00
Malaga
1.05
Sporting Gijon
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.17
Albacete
1.20
Ponferradina
1.26
Mirandes
1.29
Villarreal II
1.31
Lugo
1.36
Ibiza
1.57
Villarreal II is 0.48 goals worse than Burgos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Villarreal II
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Burgos
For 5.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 13.9 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Villarreal II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
9.2
9.0
9.3
3.4
3.3
3.5
24.6
24.8
24.4
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
7.0
10.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
22.0
24.0
20.0
vs Similar (32)
8.5
8.3
8.8
3.2
3.1
3.2
24.3
24.7
23.9
vs Weaker (15)
10.4
10.7
10.1
4.2
4.0
4.4
25.5
25.1
25.9
% over line
38%
33%
43%
53%
52%
54%
64%
71%
57%
% under line
62%
67%
57%
47%
48%
46%
36%
29%
43%
This opponent (Villarreal II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mirandes
9.9
Huesca
9.9
Alaves
9.9
Ibiza
9.7
Zaragoza
9.6
Granada CF
9.3
Ponferradina
9.3
Eibar
9.2
Sporting Gijon
9.2
Malaga
9.2
Burgos
9.2
Lugo
9.1
Levante
9.0
Racing Santander
8.8
Oviedo
8.8
Tenerife
8.7
Las Palmas
8.7
Leganes
8.6
FC Cartagena
8.5
Albacete
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.0
Granada CF
5.6
Malaga
5.6
Albacete
5.5
Las Palmas
5.4
Levante
5.4
Tenerife
5.3
Zaragoza
5.1
Oviedo
5.0
FC Cartagena
4.9
Mirandes
4.9
Leganes
4.9
Huesca
4.8
Ponferradina
4.8
Alaves
4.7
Sporting Gijon
4.7
Lugo
4.6
Eibar
4.3
Ibiza
4.2
Burgos
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Racing Santander
33.9
Las Palmas
30.7
Leganes
30.0
Albacete
29.4
FC Cartagena
28.9
Ibiza
28.1
Huesca
28.1
Malaga
28.0
Tenerife
28.0
Lugo
27.7
Oviedo
27.2
Alaves
26.7
Zaragoza
26.6
Granada CF
25.9
Mirandes
25.6
Levante
25.3
Burgos
24.6
Eibar
24.6
Ponferradina
24.4
Sporting Gijon
24.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.2%
Under 9.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.7%
Under 3.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.2%
Under 21.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Villarreal II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.71
1.33
0.33
0.25
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.50
0.50
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.69
0.25
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.26
0.26
0.33
0.22
0.20
0.30
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.44
1.33
0.33
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Villarreal II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Villarreal II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.38
0.25
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.26
0.26
0.33
0.11
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Villarreal II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Villarreal II
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Millán20%
Sergio Lozano18%
Juan Carlos Arana17%
Diego Collado15%
Javier Ontiveros12%
Mamadou Fall12%
Pablo Íñiguez11%
Fernando Niño10%
Antonio Pacheco9%
Carlo Adriano García9%
Dani Tasende8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Tiago Geralnik8%
Thiago Ojeda7%
Sergio Carreira6%
Álex Forés6%
Adrián de la Fuente6%
Miguel Angel Leal3%
Alberto del Moral3%
Haissem Hassan0%
Gianni Cassaro0%
Iker Álvarez0%
Carlos Romero0%
Ramón Terrats0%
Abraham Rando0%
Liberman Torres0%
Filip Jörgensen0%
Hugo Pérez0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hugo Pérez67%
Ramón Terrats40%
Juan Carlos Arana33%
Adrián de la Fuente29%
Sergio Lozano29%
Mamadou Fall28%
Alberto del Moral22%
Miguel Angel Leal20%
Carlo Adriano García20%
Filip Jörgensen18%
Javier Ontiveros16%
Dani Tasende16%
Álex Millán15%
Carlos Romero12%
Rodrigo Alonso11%
Pablo Íñiguez11%
Antonio Pacheco9%
Diego Collado9%
Abraham Rando8%
Tiago Geralnik8%
Haissem Hassan7%
Thiago Ojeda7%
Fernando Niño5%
Iker Álvarez4%
Sergio Carreira3%
Álex Forés3%
Gianni Cassaro0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Liberman Torres0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergio Lozano21%
Álex Millán20%
Rodrigo Alonso11%
Diego Collado9%
Carlos Romero8%
Alberto del Moral8%
Javier Ontiveros8%
Fernando Niño8%
Tiago Geralnik8%
Miguel Angel Leal7%
Carlo Adriano García6%
Haissem Hassan4%
Sergio Carreira3%
Álex Forés3%
Dani Tasende3%
Adrián de la Fuente0%
Pablo Íñiguez0%
Gianni Cassaro0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Iker Álvarez0%
Juan Carlos Arana0%
Ramón Terrats0%
Abraham Rando0%
Liberman Torres0%
Antonio Pacheco0%
Filip Jörgensen0%
Hugo Pérez0%
Thiago Ojeda0%
Mamadou Fall0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergio Lozano21%
Álex Millán20%
Diego Collado15%
Álex Forés9%
Juan Carlos Arana8%
Carlo Adriano García6%
Javier Ontiveros4%
Haissem Hassan4%
Adrián de la Fuente3%
Dani Tasende3%
Fernando Niño3%
Pablo Íñiguez0%
Gianni Cassaro0%
Miguel Angel Leal0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Iker Álvarez0%
Alberto del Moral0%
Carlos Romero0%
Ramón Terrats0%
Abraham Rando0%
Liberman Torres0%
Antonio Pacheco0%
Filip Jörgensen0%
Hugo Pérez0%
Thiago Ojeda0%
Mamadou Fall0%
Tiago Geralnik0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Burgos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Curro26%
Gaspar Campos24%
Álex Bermejo Escribano11%
Juan Artola9%
Mourad El Ghezouani9%
Miguel Muñoz Mora8%
Grego Sierra4%
Unai Elguezabal3%
Miguel Atienza2%
José Antonio Caro0%
Fran García Solsona0%
Pablo Valcarce0%
Matos0%
Saúl Berjón0%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada0%
Sergio Castel Martínez0%
David Goldar0%
Dani Barrio0%
Juan Hernández García0%
Míchel Zabaco0%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta0%
Jesús Areso0%
Raúl Navarro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Grego Sierra52%
Unai Elguezabal31%
Miguel Atienza28%
Miguel Muñoz Mora26%
Sergio Castel Martínez20%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta20%
Matos18%
Álex Bermejo Escribano16%
Raúl Navarro16%
Curro15%
Mourad El Ghezouani14%
David Goldar12%
Pablo Valcarce11%
Jesús Areso11%
Juan Artola9%
Fran García Solsona7%
Míchel Zabaco7%
Gaspar Campos3%
José Antonio Caro2%
Saúl Berjón0%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada0%
Dani Barrio0%
Juan Hernández García0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matos14%
Jesús Areso14%
Saúl Berjón11%
Sergio Castel Martínez10%
Pablo Valcarce8%
Fran García Solsona7%
Curro6%
Álex Bermejo Escribano3%
Raúl Navarro3%
Miguel Muñoz Mora3%
Miguel Atienza2%
José Antonio Caro0%
Unai Elguezabal0%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada0%
Grego Sierra0%
David Goldar0%
Mourad El Ghezouani0%
Dani Barrio0%
Juan Hernández García0%
Míchel Zabaco0%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta0%
Gaspar Campos0%
Juan Artola0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Bermejo Escribano24%
Curro18%
Sergio Castel Martínez10%
Gaspar Campos7%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada4%
Juan Hernández García4%
Juan Artola3%
Miguel Muñoz Mora3%
José Antonio Caro0%
Fran García Solsona0%
Pablo Valcarce0%
Matos0%
Saúl Berjón0%
Unai Elguezabal0%
Grego Sierra0%
David Goldar0%
Mourad El Ghezouani0%
Dani Barrio0%
Míchel Zabaco0%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta0%
Miguel Atienza0%
Jesús Areso0%
Raúl Navarro0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →