Vukovar’s recent home form, though punctuated by a 2-6 loss to Dinamo Zagreb U21, shows a team that scores an average of two goals per match against weaker opposition, while conceding six. Hrvace, still reeling from five straight defeats, averages only 0.67 goals scored and one conceded on the road against stronger sides. The model therefore rates a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 71% probability to that outcome. The predicted total of 3.3 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for Vukovar at 10.8%. The expected total of three goals carries a 22% chance.
The probabilities for the match result are 71%home win, 18% draw, and 11% away win. The model’s suggested picks include a 98.8% chance of “Away under 3.5 goals”, a 97.9% chance of “Under 7.5”, a 96.6% chance of “Home +2 handicap”, a 94.6% chance of “Under 6.5”, a 94.1% chance of “Away under 2.5 goals”, a 91.5% chance of “Home over 0.5 goals”, an 89.4% chance of “Home or Draw”, and an 89.4% chance of “Home +1 handicap”. Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are given win percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vukovar win
71.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hrvace win
10.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vukovar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.07
1.27
1.93
1.00
2.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
3.11
0.50
2.75
1.20
3.40
vs Similar (19)
1.21
1.42
1.50
1.20
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
3.50
2.00
6.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.40
1.29
1.14
0.69
1.62
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.29
2.00
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
1.43
1.00
1.00
0.69
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vukovar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.9%
Under 2.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.9%
Under 3.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.9%
1-1
8.4%
1-0
8.0%
3-1
7.8%
4-0
5.5%
4-1
4.8%
Vukovar goals ↓
Hrvace goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
2.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
1
8.0%
8.4%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
2
11%
9.4%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
8.9%
7.8%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
4
5.5%
4.8%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vukovar goals (down), columns = Hrvace goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Vukovar is 0.59 points better than Hrvace in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Vukovar is 0.34 goals better than Hrvace in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Vukovar is 0.49 goals better than Hrvace in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vukovar or Draw
89.4%
Avg Implied -
71%
18%
11%
covers Vukovar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vukovar or Hrvace
82.1%
Avg Implied -
71%
18%
11%
covers Vukovar + Hrvace
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hrvace
28.5%
Avg Implied -
71%
18%
11%
covers Draw + Hrvace
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vukovar over/under 0.5
Over
91.5%
Under
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vukovar over/under 1.5
Over
70.6%
Under
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vukovar over/under 2.5
Over
44.8%
Under
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vukovar over/under 3.5
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vukovar, so a minus line means Vukovar give that many goals of a start and Hrvace receive them. At -1, Vukovar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vukovar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vukovar)
Vukovar -2
29.1%
Draw -2
20.9%
Hrvace +2
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vukovar)
Vukovar -1
50.1%
Draw -1
21.4%
Hrvace +1
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vukovar)
Vukovar +1
89.4%
Draw +1
7.1%
Hrvace -1
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vukovar)
Vukovar +2
96.6%
Draw +2
2.6%
Hrvace -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vukovar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.87
0.33
0.73
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.22
0.00
0.75
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.58
0.40
0.50
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.57
0.64
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.52
0.60
0.50
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Vukovar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vukovar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vukovar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vukovar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vukovar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.20
0.93
1.20
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.89
0.50
2.00
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.84
1.10
0.70
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.71
0.50
0.25
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.43
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.91
0.40
0.50
0.23
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vukovar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vukovar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vukovar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vukovar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vukovar · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jakov Puljić48%
Robin González14%
Lovro Banovec12%
Šimun Butić6%
Jakov Gurlica6%
Mario Tadić5%
Alen Jurilj5%
Kerim Çalhanoğlu5%
Vito Čaić4%
Rafael Camacho0%
Marin Pilj0%
Josip Špoljarić0%
Antonio Bosec0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Josip Elez0%
Jakov Biljan0%
Kristijan Pavičić0%
Denis Pintol0%
Dominik Mulac0%
Nikita Vlasenko0%
Eniss Shabani0%
Marino Bulat0%
Moreno Živković0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
David Mejía0%
Pocholo Bugas0%
Kristijan Čabrajić0%
Lovre Kulušić0%
Luka Klanac0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Josip Špoljarić0%
Niko Pajvančić0%
Danijel Vinković0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marin Pilj80%
Lovre Kulušić43%
David Mejía30%
Moreno Živković29%
Jakov Biljan27%
Jakov Puljić22%
Rafael Camacho20%
Josip Elez20%
Lovro Banovec20%
Luka Klanac20%
Eniss Shabani18%
Robin González17%
Kristijan Pavičić17%
Vito Čaić17%
Jakov Gurlica17%
Mario Tadić16%
Mario Tičinović15%
Marino Bulat13%
Antonio Bosec10%
Alen Jurilj10%
Kerim Çalhanoğlu10%
Kristijan Čabrajić10%
Josip Špoljarić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Denis Pintol0%
Dominik Mulac0%
Nikita Vlasenko0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Pocholo Bugas0%
Šimun Butić0%
Josip Špoljarić0%
Niko Pajvančić0%
Danijel Vinković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lovro Banovec16%
Robin González14%
Kerim Çalhanoğlu10%
Mario Tičinović10%
Eniss Shabani9%
Moreno Živković7%
Alen Jurilj5%
Kristijan Čabrajić5%
Rafael Camacho0%
Jakov Puljić0%
Marin Pilj0%
Josip Špoljarić0%
Antonio Bosec0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Josip Elez0%
Jakov Biljan0%
Kristijan Pavičić0%
Mario Tadić0%
Denis Pintol0%
Dominik Mulac0%
Nikita Vlasenko0%
Marino Bulat0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
David Mejía0%
Pocholo Bugas0%
Vito Čaić0%
Jakov Gurlica0%
Lovre Kulušić0%
Šimun Butić0%
Luka Klanac0%
Josip Špoljarić0%
Niko Pajvančić0%
Danijel Vinković0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jakov Puljić30%
Robin González7%
Šimun Butić6%
Mario Tadić5%
Alen Jurilj5%
Kerim Çalhanoğlu5%
Lovro Banovec4%
Rafael Camacho0%
Marin Pilj0%
Josip Špoljarić0%
Antonio Bosec0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Josip Elez0%
Jakov Biljan0%
Kristijan Pavičić0%
Denis Pintol0%
Dominik Mulac0%
Nikita Vlasenko0%
Eniss Shabani0%
Marino Bulat0%
Moreno Živković0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
David Mejía0%
Pocholo Bugas0%
Vito Čaić0%
Jakov Gurlica0%
Kristijan Čabrajić0%
Lovre Kulušić0%
Luka Klanac0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Josip Špoljarić0%
Niko Pajvančić0%
Danijel Vinković0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Vukovar and Hrvace have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Vukovar and Hrvace have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Vukovar and Hrvace have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Vukovar and Hrvace have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
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Croatia Zmijavci
Mladost Ždralovi
Jadran LP
Dugopolje
HNK Cibalia
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Karlovac 1919
Sesvete
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija
Dubrava Zagreb