Waterford and Drogheda United face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win. The predicted probabilities are 37% for Waterford, 27% for a draw and 36% for Drogheda. The average goal expectation sits at 3.0, but the most likely total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability. Waterford, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded, while Drogheda, away, averages 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 82.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.5%, Over 8.5 corners at 80.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 79.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 70.6% and Over 9.5 corners at 70.1%. Waterford’s recent unbeaten run of five matches, ending with a 2-0 win over St Patrick’s Athl., contrasts with Drogheda’s five-match string of two losses and three draws, the last being a 2-3 defeat to Dundalk.
Results analysis
Waterford’s unbeaten run in their last five fixtures continued as they edged Drogheda United 2-1, a result that matched the model’s pre-match pick of a home win at 37%. The model’s favourite was right, and the final score confirmed the expected outcome. The model’s selections were a mixed bag: Over 2.5 cards hit at 82.5%, Over 1.5 goals hit at 80.5%, while Over 8.5 corners missed at 80.1%, Under 25.5 fouls missed at 79.7%, Under 5.5 cards missed at 70.6% and Over 9.5 corners missed at 70.1%. Waterford’s form note that they remain unbeaten, and Drogheda’s recent five saw only one win. The match delivered the predicted home victory but left several high-probability picks on the wrong side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Waterford win✓ Hit
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Waterford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.77
1.07
1.33
1.07
2.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.85
1.08
1.31
1.08
2.38
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
0.93
1.00
1.13
1.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
2.00
0.60
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.15
1.15
1.10
1.00
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
6.6%
0-1
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
2-0
5.8%
Waterford goals ↓
Drogheda United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
6.5%
5.6%
2.7%
1.0%
1
6.6%
13%
8.3%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.5%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.9%
4.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waterford goals (down), columns = Drogheda United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Waterford is 0.14 points better than Drogheda United in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Waterford is 0.21 goals better than Drogheda United in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Waterford and Drogheda United are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Waterford is 1.4 percentage points worse than Drogheda United in terms of average possession (39% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Waterford
For 4.5 · Against 7.7 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Drogheda United
For 4.2 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 12.2 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.9
10.6
4.5
5.2
3.8
22.9
23.0
22.7
vs Stronger (6)
7.4
8.0
6.5
3.3
4.3
2.3
19.8
19.7
20.0
vs Similar (43)
11.7
12.4
11.0
4.8
5.4
4.1
23.2
23.5
23.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
57%
58%
57%
64%
72%
56%
70%
75%
65%
% under line
43%
42%
43%
36%
28%
44%
30%
25%
35%
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
10.0
4.2
4.6
3.8
21.0
21.4
20.5
vs Stronger (17)
8.6
9.3
7.7
4.4
5.6
3.0
20.9
21.7
19.9
vs Similar (33)
11.0
11.1
10.9
4.1
4.1
4.1
21.1
21.3
20.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
52%
43%
58%
72%
44%
54%
56%
52%
% under line
52%
48%
57%
42%
28%
56%
46%
44%
48%
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Waterford
11.0
Sligo Rovers
10.9
Galway United
10.4
Drogheda United
10.3
Bohemians
10.2
Dundalk
10.0
St Patrick's Athl.
9.8
Shelbourne
9.6
Derry City
8.9
Shamrock Rovers
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.5
Dundalk
5.1
Bohemians
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
St Patrick's Athl.
4.9
Waterford
4.9
Galway United
4.9
Shelbourne
4.8
Sligo Rovers
4.7
Drogheda United
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Derry City
23.6
Dundalk
23.6
Galway United
23.2
Waterford
23.1
Bohemians
22.9
St Patrick's Athl.
22.3
Shamrock Rovers
22.2
Shelbourne
21.3
Drogheda United
20.8
Sligo Rovers
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
70.1%
Under 9.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.5%
Under 3.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.2%
Under 21.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.88
0.46
0.85
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.67
0.40
0.13
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.90
0.20
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.35
0.90
0.30
0.10
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.67
0.53
0.40
1.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.96
0.62
0.46
0.38
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.27
0.60
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.10
0.40
0.40
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.80
0.20
0.70
1.10
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 9.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Waterford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Lonergan42%
John Mahon19%
Pádraig Amond19%
J. Voilås13%
K. Long11%
D. McMenamy4%
Benny Couto4%
Conan Noonan4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
H. Cann0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Will Johnson45%
Ronan Mansfield43%
S. Glenfield29%
Luke Heeney27%
John Mahon27%
Evan McLaughlin25%
Noah Mawene25%
Tom Lonergan19%
Jordan Houston18%
K. Long17%
Benny Couto16%
H. Cann14%
D. McMenamy13%
Conan Noonan12%
Cian Barrett9%
J. Voilås9%
Conor Carty7%
Pádraig Amond4%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benny Couto16%
J. Voilås13%
Evan McLaughlin12%
Conan Noonan12%
Tom Lonergan12%
D. McMenamy9%
Jordan Houston6%
K. Long6%
John Mahon4%
Pádraig Amond4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tom Lonergan42%
Pádraig Amond15%
Benny Couto8%
Conor Carty7%
K. Long6%
J. Voilås4%
John Mahon4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
Conan Noonan0%
D. McMenamy0%
Arlo Doherty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Drogheda United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Doyle30%
Keegan Ancelin20%
Shane Farrell16%
Brandon Kavanagh11%
T. Oluwa11%
Warren Davis11%
Ryan Brennan9%
Conor Keeley8%
Jago Godden8%
Leo Burney6%
Edwin Agbaje4%
Alfie Bates0%
Conor Kane0%
Luke Dennison0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Kieran Cruise0%
Ethan O'Brien0%
J. Bolger0%
Jason Bucknor0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Shane Farrell44%
Leo Burney38%
Ryan Brennan32%
Conor Keeley23%
Alfie Bates20%
Jago Godden19%
M. Doyle19%
J. Bolger17%
Edwin Agbaje14%
Ethan O'Brien13%
Jason Bucknor12%
Brandon Kavanagh11%
Conor Kane11%
Kieran Cruise8%
T. Oluwa7%
Luke Dennison6%
Andrew Quinn0%
Warren Davis0%
Keegan Ancelin0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Keegan Ancelin20%
Kieran Cruise17%
Brandon Kavanagh15%
Andrew Quinn5%
Ryan Brennan5%
Conor Keeley4%
Jago Godden4%
T. Oluwa4%
Conor Kane4%
Edwin Agbaje4%
Alfie Bates0%
Shane Farrell0%
M. Doyle0%
Luke Dennison0%
Warren Davis0%
Ethan O'Brien0%
J. Bolger0%
Jason Bucknor0%
Leo Burney0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Shane Farrell12%
M. Doyle11%
Conor Keeley4%
Jago Godden4%
Brandon Kavanagh4%
T. Oluwa4%
Alfie Bates0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Conor Kane0%
Luke Dennison0%
Edwin Agbaje0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Kieran Cruise0%
Warren Davis0%
Ethan O'Brien0%
J. Bolger0%
Keegan Ancelin0%
Jason Bucknor0%
Leo Burney0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Waterford and Drogheda United have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Waterford and Drogheda United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Waterford and Drogheda United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Waterford and Drogheda United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →