Shelbourne are the favourites to win away from home, with a 47% chance of success. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Waterford holding a 26% chance of winning and a 27% chance of drawing. Shelbourne's away form against similar opponents is impressive, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding just 0.6. Waterford, on the other hand, have struggled at home, scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 1.3 against similar opponents.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 13.1%. Shelbourne's away win is the model's selection, with a 47% chance of occurrence.
The model suggests several selections, including Over 1.5 goals (76.2%), Under 3.5 cards (71.6%), and Over 3.5 cards (77.9%). The home win percentage is 26%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 47%.
Results analysis
Waterford's 1-0 victory over Shelbourne marked a stunning upset, extending their winning streak to four matches. The win came as a surprise, as Shelbourne were the pre-match favourites with a 47% probability of winning. Unfortunately for the model, its call was wrong, as it had predicted an away win for Shelbourne. The model's selection, however, did not go entirely unnoticed, with Shelbourne's Under 3.5 cards prediction hitting at 71.6% probability. The model also suggested Over 1.5 goals and Over 3.5 cards, both of which missed, with probabilities of 76.2% and 77.9% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Waterford winâś“ Hit
25.6%
Avg Implied 34.3% · @ 2.70
Edge
-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.88
10Bet
2.84
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.72
William Hil
2.70
Drawâś— Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.47
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.70
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.54
1xBet
3.54
Shelbourne winâś— Miss
47.0%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.37
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.51
Bet365
2.45
Dafabet
2.41
SBO
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Waterford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.73
1.27
1.20
1.40
2.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.81
1.38
1.15
1.46
2.46
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.43
1.12
1.62
1.43
1.21
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.46
1.42
1.29
1.57
1.67
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.2%
@ 1.20-1.5%
Under 1.5
23.8%
@ 4.15+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.48
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
888Sport
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.4%
@ 1.68-5.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
@ 2.12+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.4%
@ 2.66-6.5%
Under 3.5
71.6%
@ 1.43+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Under
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.4%
@ 1.56-4.9%
No
45.6%
@ 2.28+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.60
888Sport
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.56
No
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.51+6.2%
0-1
9.5%@ 9.30+4.7%
1-2
9.4%@ 8.44+4.1%
0-2
8.5%@ 12.17+4.8%
0-0
8.0%@ 11.97+4.2%
2-1
6.6%@ 9.50+1.9%
1-0 âś“
6.3%@ 10.13+1.9%
2-2
5.2%@ 10.98+1.2%
Waterford goals ↓
Shelbourne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
9.5%
8.5%
4.5%
1.8%
1
6.3%
13%
9.4%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.2%
6.6%
5.2%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.5%
2.4%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waterford goals (down), columns = Shelbourne goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.79
Bohemians
1.68
Dundalk
1.32
Shelbourne
1.31
Galway United
1.22
Derry City
1.18
Waterford
1.04
Drogheda United
1.00
Sligo Rovers
0.82
Waterford is 0.27 points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.68
St Patrick's Athl.
1.61
Shamrock Rovers
1.59
Dundalk
1.54
Shelbourne
1.38
Derry City
1.36
Waterford
1.32
Galway United
1.30
Drogheda United
1.11
Sligo Rovers
0.82
Waterford is 0.06 goals worse than Shelbourne in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.82
Shamrock Rovers
0.89
Bohemians
1.21
Derry City
1.32
Shelbourne
1.46
Galway United
1.52
Dundalk
1.54
Sligo Rovers
1.61
Drogheda United
1.61
Waterford
1.71
Waterford is 0.25 goals worse than Shelbourne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
63%
Bohemians
58%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
47%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
39%
Waterford
39%
Waterford is 13.7 percentage points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average possession (39% vs 53%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.92
0.46
0.85
0.85
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.50
0.75
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.73
0.57
0.64
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.87
0.40
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.88
0.92
0.31
0.62
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.62
0.88
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.69
0.71
0.93
1.00
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
76.2%
1.20
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-1.5%
âś— Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.6%
1.45
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
+12.1%
âś“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 3.5
71.6%
1.43
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
888Sport
1.44
+6.5%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
đź’° 13. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (21)
€5m
DC (21)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Waterford's squad is €1m less valuable than Shelbourne's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Waterford and Shelbourne have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Waterford and Shelbourne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
SPA (8)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Waterford and Shelbourne have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Dundalk
Derry City
Galway United
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers