Watford face West Ham in a fixture that the model deems most likely to end with an away victory, with a 42 % chance of West Ham winning, 31 % for a home win and 27 % for a draw. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a fairly open match, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8 % probability. Watford, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while West Ham, on the road against a weaker side, average 1.0 scored and none conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3 % with a 7 % edge, Under 7.5 at 99.1 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3 % with a 7 % edge, Under 6.5 at 97.3 % with a 3 % edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.7 % with a 3 % edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.3 % with a 4 % edge, Under 5.5 at 93.0 % with a 4 % edge and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.8 % with a 5 % edge. Watford’s recent draw and West Ham’s recent loss add context to the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The match finished 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite, West Ham, disappointed. Watford, coming off a draw, had been on a modest run, while West Ham had also ended their last outing in a stalemate. The model had tipped an away win with a 43% probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 (99.1% hit), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1% hit), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.2% hit), Under 6.5 (97.3% hit), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.6% hit), Home under 3.5 goals (95.8% hit), Under 5.5 (93.0% hit), and Away under 3.5 goals (92.5% hit). All eight selections were correct, confirming the model’s accurate assessment of total-goals and half-time trends despite the wrong outcome prediction.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Watford win✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.19
Edge
+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.60
Betano
4.55
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Draw✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.83
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.02
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
Betfair
3.90
West Ham win✗ Miss
42.9%
Avg Implied 53.0% · @ 1.77
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
SBO
1.84
BetVictor
1.83
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Watford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.63
1.00
1.40
0.93
1.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.00
1.56
1.08
1.17
0.93
1.87
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
West Ham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.62
1.12
1.14
1.86
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.60
0.50
1.00
1.33
3.67
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.29
1.82
1.09
1.20
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.00
1.67
1.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
@ 1.19-0.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
@ 4.47+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.87
Unibet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.62-3.9%
Under 2.5
45.6%
@ 2.27+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
@ 2.52-5.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
@ 1.49+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.57
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.5%
@ 1.57-0.9%
No
41.5%
@ 2.29+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
No
William Hil
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Unibet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.8%@ 6.95+6.2%
1-2
9.1%@ 7.66+3.2%
0-1
7.9%@ 8.55+2.5%
2-1
7.5%@ 12.28+3.8%
0-2
7.1%@ 9.41+2.3%
0-0
6.9%@ 13.12+3.4%
1-0
6.2%@ 13.45+2.8%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.57+1.9%
Watford goals ↓
West Ham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
7.9%
7.1%
3.7%
1.5%
1
6.2%
13%
9.1%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.7%
7.5%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.0%
3.2%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Watford goals (down), columns = West Ham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Watford is 0.68 points worse than West Ham in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Watford is 0.66 goals worse than West Ham in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Watford is 0.49 goals worse than West Ham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Watford
For 5.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 10.1 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
West Ham
For 4.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.0 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Watford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.4
4.5
4.4
4.5
21.1
21.8
20.4
vs Stronger (2)
7.0
7.0
7.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
23.0
30.0
16.0
vs Similar (46)
10.5
10.4
10.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
21.1
21.6
20.6
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
8.5
-
3.0
3.0
-
20.0
20.0
-
% over line
58%
54%
62%
56%
58%
54%
40%
42%
38%
% under line
42%
46%
38%
44%
42%
46%
60%
58%
62%
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
West Ham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.2
11.0
3.8
4.2
3.5
22.2
23.0
21.4
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
23.6
22.0
25.2
vs Similar (38)
10.9
11.2
10.7
3.8
4.2
3.5
21.3
22.2
20.6
vs Weaker (4)
13.5
11.7
19.0
4.8
5.0
4.0
27.2
29.0
22.0
% over line
66%
64%
68%
54%
52%
56%
50%
52%
48%
% under line
34%
36%
32%
46%
48%
44%
50%
48%
52%
This opponent (Watford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Under
Betano
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.31
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Unibet
1.48
Under
Unibet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.20
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
Under
Superbet
1.90
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Watford or Draw✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied 47.2% · @ 1.98
Edge
+9.9%
30%
27%
43%
covers Watford + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.09
Superbet
2.07
Unibet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Watford or West Ham✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied 76.1% · @ 1.23
Edge
-3.1%
30%
27%
43%
covers Watford + West Ham
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Draw or West Ham✓ Hit
69.9%
Avg Implied 76.7% · @ 1.22
Edge
-6.8%
30%
27%
43%
covers Draw + West Ham
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Watford over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.4%
@ 1.36+4.2%
Under
27.6%
@ 2.92-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.04
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Watford over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.81+3.6%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.40-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.02
Marathonbet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.87
Under
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Watford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 7.03+0.8%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.07-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Watford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 17.58-1.3%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
West Ham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.2%
@ 1.12-3.7%
Under
20.8%
@ 5.42+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
BetVictor
5.25
West Ham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.6%
@ 1.66-9.7%
Under
53.4%
@ 2.14+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
BetVictor
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Unibet
2.15
Betano
2.15
West Ham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 3.09-9.2%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.33+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.22
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
West Ham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 6.44-7.0%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.09+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Watford, so a minus line means Watford give that many goals of a start and West Ham receive them. At -1, Watford must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Watford win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Watford)Actual: West Ham
Watford -2
4.6%
@ 20.60+0.1%
Draw -2
8.9%
@ 11.10+0.6%
West Ham +2
86.6%
@ 1.05-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Unibet
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Watford)Actual: West Ham
Watford -1
13.4%
@ 8.21+2.7%
Draw -1
16.7%
@ 5.42+0.4%
West Ham +1
69.9%
@ 1.21-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.60
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap +1 (Watford)Actual: Watford
Watford +1
57.1%
@ 1.99+12.0%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 3.73-3.5%
West Ham -1
22.3%
@ 2.92-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.09
Superbet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.98
10Bet
1.91
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.70
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Away
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Handicap +2 (Watford)Actual: Watford
Watford +2
77.7%
@ 1.34+10.9%
Draw +2
13.2%
@ 5.08-4.5%
West Ham -2
9.0%
@ 5.80-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.25
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Watford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.47
0.33
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.41
0.59
0.58
0.17
0.27
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
West Ham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.81
0.38
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.52
0.82
0.27
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.1%
@ 1.29-5.2%
Under 0.5
32.9%
@ 3.37+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Unibet
3.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.36-5.8%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.54+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.42
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.3%
@ 5.49-4.6%
Under 2.5
87.7%
@ 1.12+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
William Hil
5.80
1xBet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Watford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.4%
@ 2.31+0.2%
Under
59.6%
@ 1.56-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.35
Superbet
2.30
Unibet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.58
Unibet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Watford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.67-4.1%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
7.60
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.50
Under
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Watford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 21.25-3.6%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
West Ham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
55.7%
@ 1.65-0.9%
Under
44.3%
@ 2.14+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Unibet
2.14
Betano
2.12
West Ham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 4.19-6.6%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.19+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
4.20
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
West Ham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 10.12-5.9%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Watford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.53
1.07
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.96
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
West Ham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.81
0.75
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
0.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.76
1.00
0.82
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.4%
@ 1.16-1.9%
Under 0.5
21.6%
@ 4.72+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Betano
4.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
53.8%
@ 1.82+2.4%
Under 1.5
46.2%
@ 1.91-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
William Hil
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Under
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.1%
@ 3.52-4.3%
Under 2.5
77.9%
@ 1.26+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
William Hil
3.60
1xBet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Watford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.1%
@ 1.92-4.1%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.79+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Watford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 5.60-3.5%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.11+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
Superbet
5.75
1xBet
5.40
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Watford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 15.12-4.5%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
West Ham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
66.5%
@ 1.44+2.1%
Under
33.5%
@ 2.61-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.57
1xBet
2.55
West Ham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.6%
@ 3.05-3.7%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.33+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
2.96
Betano
2.90
Under
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
West Ham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 7.50-4.7%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.06+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Superbet
7.60
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.05
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.05
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.9%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.2%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.12
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.1%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.19
BetVictor
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
-1.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.7%
1.34
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+10.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.4%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.0%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
-3.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
72.4%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
+4.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Watford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Amin Nabizada33%
Luca Kjerrumgaard25%
Iker Bravo20%
M. Doumbia17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Payero0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
O. Traoré0%
F. Ravaglia0%
H. Kyprianou0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Othmane Maamma0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Kyprianou33%
Edoardo Bove33%
K. Keben33%
Othmane Maamma33%
J. Zemura25%
M. Payero20%
M. Pollock20%
O. Traoré20%
Iker Bravo20%
M. Doumbia17%
Amin Nabizada17%
E. Kayembe0%
F. Ravaglia0%
R. Vata0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
O. Traoré20%
Amin Nabizada17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Payero0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
F. Ravaglia0%
H. Kyprianou0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Iker Bravo0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Othmane Maamma0%
M. Doumbia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Kjerrumgaard50%
Iker Bravo40%
M. Payero20%
H. Kyprianou17%
M. Doumbia17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
O. Traoré0%
F. Ravaglia0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Othmane Maamma0%
Amin Nabizada0%
West Ham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Bowen50%
V. Castellanos33%
J. Piroe25%
Konstantinos Mavropanos25%
D. Mukasa25%
M. Solomon20%
M. Kilman17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Veltman0%
M. Hermansen0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
Pablo Felipe0%
O. Scarles0%
Mohamadou Kanté0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Castellanos50%
D. Mukasa25%
M. Hermansen20%
J. Veltman17%
M. Kilman17%
Mohamadou Kanté17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Piroe0%
M. Solomon0%
Konstantinos Mavropanos0%
J. Bowen0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
Pablo Felipe0%
O. Scarles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Bowen50%
Pablo Felipe33%
Arne Engels25%
L. Orford20%
J. Veltman17%
Mohamadou Kanté17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Piroe0%
M. Solomon0%
Konstantinos Mavropanos0%
M. Hermansen0%
M. Kilman0%
V. Castellanos0%
O. Scarles0%
D. Mukasa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Bowen50%
V. Castellanos33%
Pablo Felipe33%
J. Piroe25%
Konstantinos Mavropanos25%
D. Mukasa25%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Veltman0%
M. Solomon0%
M. Hermansen0%
M. Kilman0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
O. Scarles0%
Mohamadou Kanté0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Watford's squad is €185m less valuable than West Ham's (€88m vs €274m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Watford's attack is €57m less valuable than West Ham's (€28m vs €84m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Watford's midfield is €10m less valuable than West Ham's (€38m vs €48m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Watford's defence is €119m less valuable than West Ham's (€22m vs €141m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
Blackburn
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston