West Brom edge the match, with a 49% chance of victory versus 28% for a draw and 22% for a Charlton win. The expected tally sits at 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.5% chance. West Brom, playing at home against a similarly-matched side, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded, while Charlton, on the road, averages 0.89 scored and 1.78 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (96.1% with a 3% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.7% with a 5% edge). Both sides have recently lost their opening games, with West Brom falling 2-3 to Newcastle and Charlton 1-5 to Tottenham.
Results analysis
West Brom’s home form has slipped into a draw streak, yet the pre-match favourite was a home win at 49%. The match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model’s selection for the total goals was 2, but the score was 1-1, so that prediction missed. The model’s other picks all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Under 6.5 at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Under 5.5 at 96.1%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.4%. The game confirmed the low-scoring, balanced nature of the Championship fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
West Brom win✗ Miss
49.5%
Avg Implied 55.3% · @ 1.70
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Draw✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.73
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.98
Betano
3.90
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
Charlton win✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied 19.4% · @ 4.87
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.20
Pinnacle
5.10
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
West Brom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.33
1.31
1.23
1.12
1.41
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.11
1.33
1.42
1.33
0.87
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
0.94
1.31
1.29
1.64
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.78
0.75
2.25
1.40
1.40
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.35
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.88
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.4%
@ 1.29-0.9%
Under 1.5
28.6%
@ 3.38+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.63
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Betano
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.2%
@ 1.92-5.0%
Under 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.87+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
SBO
1.98
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
10Bet
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.1%
@ 3.29-5.4%
Under 3.5
76.9%
@ 1.31+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.6%
@ 1.85-1.5%
No
51.4%
@ 1.86+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
No
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.5%@ 6.72+6.8%
1-0
11.9%@ 6.29+4.8%
2-0
9.9%@ 7.46+3.9%
0-0
9.9%@ 9.25+5.0%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.66+3.4%
0-1
6.9%@ 11.58+3.0%
1-2
5.7%@ 14.21+2.6%
3-0
5.0%@ 12.55+1.4%
West Brom goals ↓
Charlton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
6.9%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.3%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.0%
4.7%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = West Brom goals (down), columns = Charlton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
West Brom and Charlton are level in average points per game (both 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
West Brom is 0.09 goals better than Charlton in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
West Brom and Charlton are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
West Brom is 9.3 percentage points better than Charlton in terms of average possession (52% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
West Brom
For 3.6 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Charlton
For 4.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
West Brom
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
20.8
21.0
20.6
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
8.0
8.5
4.3
5.0
4.0
21.0
18.0
22.5
vs Similar (46)
9.6
9.4
9.8
3.3
3.3
3.3
20.9
21.2
20.7
vs Weaker (1)
3.0
-
3.0
2.0
-
2.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
44%
50%
39%
40%
36%
43%
40%
41%
39%
% under line
56%
50%
61%
60%
64%
57%
60%
59%
61%
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.2
10.1
3.6
3.7
3.5
21.5
21.0
22.0
vs Stronger (14)
10.5
8.2
12.2
3.4
3.8
3.1
19.4
20.5
18.6
vs Similar (34)
9.6
9.6
9.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
22.5
21.2
23.9
vs Weaker (2)
6.0
-
6.0
3.5
-
3.5
20.5
-
20.5
% over line
46%
50%
42%
48%
50%
46%
46%
46%
46%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
52%
50%
54%
54%
54%
54%
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
QPR
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Birmingham
21.7
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.4
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.2%
@ 1.81+5.6%
Under 9.5
42.8%
@ 1.92-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Bet365
1.82
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.0%
@ 1.91+1.2%
Under 3.5
50.0%
@ 1.81-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.2%
@ 1.93+1.4%
Under 21.5
51.8%
@ 1.70-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.85
Under
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.66
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
West Brom or Draw✓ Hit
77.9%
Avg Implied 80.3% · @ 1.17
Edge
-2.4%
49%
28%
22%
covers West Brom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Superbet
1.18
West Brom or Charlton✗ Miss
71.6%
Avg Implied 75.3% · @ 1.24
Edge
-3.7%
49%
28%
22%
covers West Brom + Charlton
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Draw or Charlton✓ Hit
50.5%
Avg Implied 44.4% · @ 2.11
Edge
+6.1%
49%
28%
22%
covers Draw + Charlton
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.18
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
West Brom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.0%
@ 1.15-2.6%
Under
22.0%
@ 4.77+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.80
1xBet
4.50
West Brom over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.6%
@ 1.81-7.0%
Under
55.4%
@ 1.93+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
1.95
Betfair
1.95
1xBet
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
West Brom over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.4%
@ 3.55-6.8%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.26+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.67
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
West Brom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 7.53-5.6%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.06+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Charlton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.7%
@ 1.56+1.3%
Under
39.3%
@ 2.29-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
Superbet
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Charlton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 3.80-0.5%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.23+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.95
1xBet
3.82
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Charlton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 10.37-2.1%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Charlton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 33.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
32.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to West Brom, so a minus line means West Brom give that many goals of a start and Charlton receive them. At -1, West Brom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal West Brom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (West Brom)Actual: Charlton
West Brom -2
10.4%
@ 5.83-4.9%
Draw -2
15.5%
@ 4.74-3.4%
Charlton +2
74.1%
@ 1.35+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.55
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Unibet
4.70
Away
Superbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Handicap -1 (West Brom)Actual: Charlton
West Brom -1
25.9%
@ 2.88-5.1%
Draw -1
23.6%
@ 3.41-2.7%
Charlton +1
50.5%
@ 2.09+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Superbet
2.82
Betfair
2.80
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Away
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Handicap +1 (West Brom)Actual: West Brom
West Brom +1
77.9%
@ 1.16+1.4%
Draw +1
14.1%
@ 5.95-0.9%
Charlton -1
8.0%
@ 10.42-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Handicap +2 (West Brom)Actual: West Brom
West Brom +2
92.0%
@ 1.03+0.8%
Draw +2
5.9%
@ 15.00-0.4%
Charlton -2
2.1%
@ 37.50-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
West Brom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.69
0.46
0.41
0.59
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.56
0.75
0.50
0.27
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.25
0.75
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.67
0.25
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.55
0.25
0.67
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
65.8%
@ 1.38-1.8%
Under 0.5
34.2%
@ 2.87+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
William Hil
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.6%
@ 2.80-2.8%
Under 1.5
69.4%
@ 1.40+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
Betano
2.92
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.77
Under
Superbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.8%
@ 6.96-4.6%
Under 2.5
91.2%
@ 1.07+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
West Brom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.2%
@ 1.75-4.1%
Under
50.8%
@ 1.99+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
West Brom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 4.65-8.0%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.16+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
West Brom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 11.62-6.0%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Charlton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.5%
@ 2.74-1.4%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.41+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Betano
2.80
Unibet
2.75
Superbet
2.70
1xBet
2.68
Under
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Charlton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 10.20-1.8%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Charlton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 45.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
West Brom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.62
0.77
0.71
0.82
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.78
0.67
0.83
0.60
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.69
0.56
0.71
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.50
1.25
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.80
0.75
0.33
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.4%
@ 1.23+1.0%
Under 0.5
23.6%
@ 3.77-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.85
Superbet
3.85
Unibet
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 2.12-4.2%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 1.67+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.6%
@ 4.49-4.2%
Under 2.5
83.4%
@ 1.18+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.60
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
West Brom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.51-5.2%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.42+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.49
Under
1xBet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.37
West Brom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 3.37-8.5%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.27+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
West Brom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 8.47-6.4%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.04+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Charlton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.9%
@ 2.24+2.6%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.58-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.23
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.56
Charlton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 7.33-1.3%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.06+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Charlton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 20.25-2.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.27
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.6%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.0%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.9%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.9%
1.16
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.9%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.1%
1.35
Superbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.6%
1.24
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
-3.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.4%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.0%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.34
-
+4.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
West Brom
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jimmy Morgan50%
Harry Whitwell40%
Isaac Price33%
Aune Selland Heggebø25%
Callum Styles17%
Felix Horn Myhre17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Nolan Galves0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ousmane Diakité50%
Nathaniel Phillips20%
Rabby Nzingoula20%
George Campbell17%
Barney Stewart17%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
Callum Styles0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Isaac Price0%
Jimmy Morgan0%
Nolan Galves0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jimmy Morgan33%
Max O'Leary20%
Harry Whitwell20%
Callum Styles17%
Isaac Price17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Nolan Galves0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isaac Price33%
Jimmy Morgan17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
Callum Styles0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Nolan Galves0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
Charlton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tyreece Campbell80%
Lloyd Jones50%
Karlan Grant20%
Sonny Carey20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Karlan Grant20%
Joe Rankin-Costello20%
Danny McNamara17%
Lloyd Jones17%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Sonny Carey0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sonny Carey40%
Nathaniel Chalobah25%
Conor Coventry20%
Karlan Grant20%
Joe Rankin-Costello20%
Millenic Alli20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sonny Carey20%
Tyreece Campbell20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Karlan Grant0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
West Brom's squad is €21m more valuable than Charlton's (€52m vs €31m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
West Brom's attack is €3m less valuable than Charlton's (€15m vs €18m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
West Brom's midfield is €19m more valuable than Charlton's (€22m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
West Brom's defence is €5m more valuable than Charlton's (€15m vs €10m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston