Widzew Łódź enter the match after a draw, while Lech Poznań come in unbeaten in their last five. The model’s most confident outcome is an away win, with a 46% probability, followed by a draw at 30% and a home win at 25%. The expected total goals is 2.4, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% chance. Widzew Łódź, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, whereas Lech Poznań, on the road against a weaker side, average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections highlight a strong edge on low-scoring outcomes: Under 6.5 goals (98.9% with an 8% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 6% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (98.3% with an 8% edge). Additional picks include Under 7.5 goals (99.7%), Under 5.5 goals (96.6% with an 8% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.8% with a 5% edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.7% with a 6% edge).
Results analysis
The win for Lech Poznan extends their unbeaten run, while Widzew Łódź come off a defeat. The final score was 2-3, confirming the model’s pick of an away win, which was correct. The model had assigned a 46% probability to this outcome. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.0%). The most likely total of two goals also proved accurate, with a 28% chance. The model’s predictions were largely vindicated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Widzew Łódź win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 3.01
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.15
Superbet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
Betano
3.05
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.60
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.96
Betfair
3.70
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
10Bet
3.65
Lech Poznan win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied 43.3% · @ 2.15
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.23
Dafabet
2.21
Superbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.17
10Bet
2.16
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Widzew Łódź
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.23
1.08
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.25
1.50
2.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.96
1.04
1.18
0.91
0.80
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lech Poznan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.00
2.19
1.25
1.71
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
2.36
0.91
2.67
1.17
2.00
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
1.76
0.94
2.00
1.11
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Widzew Łódź) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.8%
@ 1.18-9.3%
Under 1.5
30.2%
@ 4.46+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
5.06
Superbet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.3%
@ 1.61-16.0%
Under 2.5
57.7%
@ 2.25+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.6%
@ 2.50-15.7%
Under 3.5
78.4%
@ 1.49+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
@ 1.52-13.1%
No
52.0%
@ 2.38+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Superbet
1.52
No
Betfair
2.45
1xBet
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.78+7.3%
0-1
11.9%@ 9.37+7.1%
0-0
10.6%@ 13.14+7.2%
0-2
9.2%@ 11.43+5.3%
1-2
8.9%@ 8.18+3.4%
1-0
7.7%@ 11.31+3.8%
2-1
6.1%@ 9.91+1.6%
2-0
4.3%@ 16.00+1.6%
Widzew Łódź goals ↓
Lech Poznan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
9.2%
4.3%
1.5%
1
7.7%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
4.3%
6.1%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.4%
2.0%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Widzew Łódź goals (down), columns = Lech Poznan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Widzew Łódź is 1.60 points worse than Lech Poznan in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Widzew Łódź is 0.33 goals worse than Lech Poznan in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Widzew Łódź is 0.87 goals worse than Lech Poznan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Widzew Łódź is 7.4 percentage points worse than Lech Poznan in terms of average possession (46% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Widzew Łódź
For 4.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 16.4 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lech Poznan
For 6.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 14.3 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Widzew Łódź
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.3
4.9
5.2
4.6
26.6
26.6
26.6
vs Stronger (8)
9.2
7.0
10.6
6.2
6.7
6.0
28.2
30.7
26.8
vs Similar (42)
9.0
9.1
8.9
4.6
5.0
4.3
26.2
25.9
26.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
41%
46%
68%
70%
67%
76%
73%
79%
% under line
57%
59%
54%
32%
30%
33%
24%
27%
21%
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lech Poznan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.5
9.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
24.4
24.5
24.3
vs Stronger (2)
5.0
1.0
9.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
18.0
19.0
17.0
vs Similar (19)
10.2
10.0
10.4
4.2
3.8
4.8
26.2
26.6
25.8
vs Weaker (29)
10.3
11.7
9.2
3.0
3.1
3.0
23.6
23.0
24.0
% over line
52%
55%
50%
50%
48%
52%
67%
73%
62%
% under line
48%
45%
50%
50%
52%
48%
33%
27%
38%
This opponent (Widzew Łódź) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
10.7
Wieczysta Kraków
10.4
Pogon Szczecin
10.3
Zaglebie Lubin
10.2
Slask Wroclaw
10.2
Radomiak Radom
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.2
Lech Poznan
10.1
Motor Lublin
10.1
Cracovia Krakow
10.1
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Piast Gliwice
10.0
GKS Katowice
9.8
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.5
Widzew Łódź
9.1
Legia Warszawa
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.3
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Motor Lublin
4.8
Raków Częstochowa
4.7
Slask Wroclaw
4.6
Zaglebie Lubin
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.5
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Pogon Szczecin
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Wisla Plock
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.9
Korona Kielce
3.9
GKS Katowice
3.8
Wisla Krakow
3.7
Piast Gliwice
3.6
Wieczysta Kraków
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.9
Wieczysta Kraków
26.6
Widzew Łódź
26.5
Jagiellonia
26.4
Legia Warszawa
25.9
Wisla Krakow
25.7
Korona Kielce
25.6
Cracovia Krakow
25.3
Motor Lublin
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.7
Slask Wroclaw
24.6
Piast Gliwice
24.2
Lech Poznan
23.9
GKS Katowice
23.8
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
Gornik Zabrze
22.9
Wisla Plock
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
Under
Superbet
2.22
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Widzew Łódź or Draw✗ Miss
54.1%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.65
Edge
-2.6%
25%
30%
46%
covers Widzew Łódź + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.70
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Widzew Łódź or Lech Poznan✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied 74.4% · @ 1.25
Edge
-3.9%
25%
30%
46%
covers Widzew Łódź + Lech Poznan
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Draw or Lech Poznan✓ Hit
75.4%
Avg Implied 68.9% · @ 1.35
Edge
+6.5%
25%
30%
46%
covers Draw + Lech Poznan
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.36
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Widzew Łódź over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.9%
@ 1.26-11.8%
Under
38.1%
@ 3.52+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.90
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Widzew Łódź over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.2%
@ 2.29-15.5%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.57+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Widzew Łódź over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 5.10-10.8%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.13+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Widzew Łódź over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 11.62-6.4%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Lech Poznan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.5%
@ 1.17-3.7%
Under
24.5%
@ 4.45+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Under
BetVictor
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Lech Poznan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.1%
@ 1.88-8.5%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.84+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Superbet
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Lech Poznan over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
16.8%
@ 3.73-8.0%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.23+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.92
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Lech Poznan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 8.04-6.2%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.06+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.10
1xBet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Widzew Łódź, so a minus line means Widzew Łódź give that many goals of a start and Lech Poznan receive them. At -1, Widzew Łódź must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Widzew Łódź win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Widzew Łódź)Actual: Lech Poznan
Widzew Łódź -2
2.5%
@ 11.52-5.2%
Draw -2
6.7%
@ 7.30-5.4%
Lech Poznan +2
90.8%
@ 1.10+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.80
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Widzew Łódź)Actual: Lech Poznan
Widzew Łódź -1
9.2%
@ 5.86-6.1%
Draw -1
15.4%
@ 4.67-3.7%
Lech Poznan +1
75.4%
@ 1.36+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.40
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Handicap +1 (Widzew Łódź)Actual: Draw
Widzew Łódź +1
54.1%
@ 1.65-0.4%
Draw +1
23.0%
@ 4.00+0.6%
Lech Poznan -1
22.9%
@ 3.89-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
10Bet
3.90
Away
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Superbet
3.80
Handicap +2 (Widzew Łódź)Actual: Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź +2
77.1%
@ 1.21+2.9%
Draw +2
14.2%
@ 6.10-0.5%
Lech Poznan -2
8.7%
@ 8.12-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Superbet
5.85
Unibet
5.80
Away
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Widzew Łódź
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.69
0.54
0.35
0.18
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.31
0.73
0.45
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lech Poznan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.37
1.12
0.44
1.21
0.29
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
1.36
0.55
1.83
0.67
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.24
0.78
0.22
1.38
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Widzew Łódź) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.2%
@ 1.28-3.2%
Under 0.5
30.8%
@ 3.36+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.33-6.5%
Under 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.54+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.32
Under
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.4%
@ 5.30-6.0%
Under 2.5
88.6%
@ 1.12+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Widzew Łódź over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.7%
@ 2.02-6.3%
Under
60.3%
@ 1.72+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Unibet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Widzew Łódź over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 6.20-5.4%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.09+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
1xBet
6.00
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Widzew Łódź over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 16.00-4.7%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Lech Poznan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.1%
@ 1.78-3.2%
Under
50.9%
@ 1.95+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.78
Unibet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Lech Poznan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.3%
@ 4.88-6.7%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.15+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Betano
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Lech Poznan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 12.75-4.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Widzew Łódź
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.54
0.54
0.53
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.73
0.45
0.45
0.40
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lech Poznan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
1.06
0.81
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.36
0.83
0.50
1.20
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.71
0.71
1.22
0.89
0.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Widzew Łódź) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.2%
@ 1.16-2.5%
Under 0.5
22.8%
@ 4.54+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.70
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.1%
@ 1.82-9.7%
Under 1.5
58.9%
@ 1.88+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
William Hil
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 3.55-11.8%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.26+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.60
William Hil
3.60
1xBet
3.44
Under
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Widzew Łódź over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.3%
@ 1.72-5.6%
Under
51.7%
@ 2.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Widzew Łódź over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 4.58-7.2%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.16+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Widzew Łódź over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 11.38-5.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Lech Poznan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.4%
@ 1.54-7.8%
Under
47.6%
@ 2.33+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.27
Lech Poznan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.0%
@ 3.57-5.9%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.25+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Lech Poznan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 9.13-6.2%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
Superbet
9.70
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.6%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.8%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
+11.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.15
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.2%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.4%
1.49
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
+15.7%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.1%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.5%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.4%
1.35
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.36
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
75.4%
1.36
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
74.8%
1.57
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.59
Unibet
1.58
+15.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
-3.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Widzew Łódź
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian Bergier40%
Fran Álvarez40%
Mariusz Fornalczyk40%
Mario Garcia25%
Karol Świderski20%
Ángel Baena20%
Juljan Shehu0%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Mateusz Żyro0%
Lindon Selahi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Ricardo Visus0%
Steve Kapuadi0%
Marcel Krajewski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juljan Shehu50%
Steve Kapuadi50%
Mateusz Żyro25%
Lindon Selahi25%
Karol Świderski20%
Emil Kornvig20%
Fran Álvarez20%
Ángel Baena20%
Mariusz Fornalczyk20%
Marcel Krajewski20%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Sebastian Bergier0%
Ricardo Visus0%
Mario Garcia0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mario Garcia50%
Steve Kapuadi25%
Karol Świderski20%
Ángel Baena20%
Mariusz Fornalczyk20%
Juljan Shehu0%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Mateusz Żyro0%
Sebastian Bergier0%
Lindon Selahi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Fran Álvarez0%
Ricardo Visus0%
Marcel Krajewski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sebastian Bergier80%
Przemysław Wiśniewski25%
Mario Garcia25%
Karol Świderski20%
Mariusz Fornalczyk20%
Juljan Shehu0%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Mateusz Żyro0%
Lindon Selahi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Fran Álvarez0%
Ángel Baena0%
Ricardo Visus0%
Steve Kapuadi0%
Marcel Krajewski0%
Lech Poznan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh60%
Mikael Ishak33%
Filip Jagiełło25%
Luis Palma20%
Antoni Kozubal20%
Yannick Agnero20%
Robert Gumny0%
Joel Pereira0%
Radosław Murawski0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Daniel Håkans0%
Patrik Wålemark0%
Pablo Rodríguez0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mikael Ishak67%
Joel Pereira20%
Luis Palma20%
Radosław Murawski20%
Antoni Kozubal20%
Yannick Agnero20%
Robert Gumny0%
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
Daniel Håkans0%
Patrik Wålemark0%
Pablo Rodríguez0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luis Palma40%
Pablo Rodríguez40%
Daniel Håkans33%
Patrik Wålemark20%
Robert Gumny0%
Joel Pereira0%
Mikael Ishak0%
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh0%
Radosław Murawski0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
Antoni Kozubal0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Yannick Agnero0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikael Ishak33%
Luis Palma20%
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh20%
Pablo Rodríguez20%
Yannick Agnero20%
Robert Gumny0%
Joel Pereira0%
Radosław Murawski0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
Daniel Håkans0%
Patrik Wålemark0%
Antoni Kozubal0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Widzew Łódź's squad is €14m less valuable than Lech Poznan's (€43m vs €58m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan have a similar attack value (both €21m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Widzew Łódź's midfield is €2m less valuable than Lech Poznan's (€7m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Widzew Łódź's defence is €13m less valuable than Lech Poznan's (€15m vs €28m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
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Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
Raków Częstochowa