Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia Result & Analysis

Wisła Plock face Jagiellonia in a match that feels almost evenly split, with the model favouring a home win but the odds hovering close to a draw. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% probability. Wisła’s home form shows they average one goal scored and none conceded against stronger opposition, while Jagiellonia’s away record against weaker teams yields 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The model’s home win probability sits at 41%, the draw at 30%, and the away win at 29%. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 82%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.9%, Under 3.5 at 78.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 71.4%, and Over 8.5 corners at 70.9%. Wisła’s recent run of three straight losses and Jagiellonia’s three-game winning streak add intrigue, but the balance remains fine.

The upset came early as Jagiellonia snatched a 0-1 away win, ending Wisła Płock’s three-match losing streak and proving the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win at 41 percent, was wrong. The model’s prediction was therefore incorrect. The match’s final score of 0-1 matched the actual result of an away victory. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 82 percent, Over 2.5 cards missed at 81.9 percent, Under 3.5 hit at 78.8 percent, Under 5.5 cards hit at 71.4 percent, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 70.9 percent. Wisła’s home form had been poor, while Jagiellonia’s three-game winning run gave them the edge.