The clash between Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are razor-thin. Wisla’s home form shows an average of 0.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against similar opposition, while Korona, on the road, averages 1.0 goal for and 1.1 against. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being two, a 28% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% probability. The model’s pick is a Wisla victory, with home win at 37%, draw 31% and away win 32%. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%, edge 6%), Under 5.5 (98.5%, edge 7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%, edge 7%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2%, edge 7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%, edge 5%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%, edge 7%). Wisla’s recent five games include two straight defeats and a 0-5 loss to GKS Katowice, whereas Korona’s last five feature a draw and a 1-1 with Motor Lublin.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Wisla Plock, the pre-match favourite with a 35% chance of triumph, fell to a 0-2 defeat. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away win, a result that matched the away side’s 34% probability of victory. The prediction model’s favourite was Wisla Plock, and it missed. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Under 5.5 (98.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.1%). Wisla’s home form had just ended a run of three losses, while Korona Kielce entered the match on a win. The game delivered a clear surprise, with the underdog securing the victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wisla Plock win✗ Miss
35.2%
Avg Implied 34.4% · @ 2.70
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.91
William Hil
2.75
Dafabet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.72
Draw✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.21
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.40
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Korona Kielce win✓ Hit
34.3%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.53
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.62
Dafabet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Superbet
2.57
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wisla Plock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.37
0.69
1.08
1.06
1.59
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.17
1.00
0.50
1.75
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.75
1.42
0.64
1.18
0.85
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Korona Kielce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Korona Kielce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.27
1.14
1.21
1.12
1.31
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.88
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.05
1.20
0.90
1.27
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.32-0.6%
Under 1.5
30.3%
@ 3.13+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
10Bet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.2%
@ 2.06-3.3%
Under 2.5
57.8%
@ 1.72+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
SBO
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
SBO
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.4%
@ 3.63-4.1%
Under 3.5
78.6%
@ 1.25+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Betano
3.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.4%
@ 1.81-1.9%
No
50.6%
@ 1.91+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
William Hil
1.80
No
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.91+6.9%
0-0
10.7%@ 8.58+5.5%
1-0
9.9%@ 7.58+4.0%
0-1
9.7%@ 7.29+3.6%
2-1
7.8%@ 9.54+3.1%
1-2
7.7%@ 9.11+2.8%
2-0
6.7%@ 12.25+3.0%
0-2 ✓
6.5%@ 11.38+2.5%
Wisla Plock goals ↓
Korona Kielce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.7%
6.5%
2.5%
0.7%
1
9.9%
14%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.7%
7.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.7%
3.1%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wisla Plock goals (down), columns = Korona Kielce goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Wisla Plock is 0.80 points worse than Korona Kielce in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Wisla Plock is 0.60 goals worse than Korona Kielce in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Wisla Plock is 1.20 goals worse than Korona Kielce in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Wisla Plock is 4.8 percentage points better than Korona Kielce in terms of average possession (52% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Wisla Plock
For 7.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Korona Kielce
For 4.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 12.1 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wisla Plock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.8
8.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
21.6
21.6
21.6
vs Stronger (10)
10.2
12.2
8.6
2.9
2.0
3.8
21.3
18.8
23.4
vs Similar (38)
9.7
10.4
8.9
2.8
3.0
2.7
21.7
22.4
21.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
45%
61%
30%
34%
40%
28%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
55%
39%
70%
66%
60%
72%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Korona Kielce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Korona Kielce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
25.5
26.3
24.6
vs Stronger (13)
9.5
9.6
9.3
2.6
3.0
2.2
24.4
24.9
23.8
vs Similar (36)
10.5
10.2
10.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
25.9
26.9
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
49%
46%
52%
44%
42%
46%
72%
75%
70%
% under line
51%
54%
48%
56%
58%
54%
28%
25%
30%
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
11.2
Wieczysta Kraków
11.0
Pogon Szczecin
10.6
Zaglebie Lubin
10.3
Slask Wroclaw
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.1
Lech Poznan
10.1
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Motor Lublin
10.1
Radomiak Radom
10.0
Cracovia Krakow
9.9
Piast Gliwice
9.9
GKS Katowice
9.8
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.5
Legia Warszawa
9.2
Widzew Łódź
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.3
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Motor Lublin
4.9
Slask Wroclaw
4.7
Raków Częstochowa
4.7
Jagiellonia
4.5
Zaglebie Lubin
4.5
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Wisla Plock
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Korona Kielce
4.0
Pogon Szczecin
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.9
Wisla Krakow
3.9
GKS Katowice
3.8
Wieczysta Kraków
3.8
Piast Gliwice
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.8
Widzew Łódź
26.5
Wieczysta Kraków
26.5
Jagiellonia
26.4
Legia Warszawa
25.9
Korona Kielce
25.6
Wisla Krakow
25.4
Motor Lublin
25.3
Cracovia Krakow
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Slask Wroclaw
24.8
Zaglebie Lubin
24.7
Piast Gliwice
24.5
Lech Poznan
23.9
GKS Katowice
23.8
Pogon Szczecin
23.6
Gornik Zabrze
22.9
Wisla Plock
22.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.02
Bet365
1.98
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Under
Superbet
1.82
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wisla Plock or Draw✗ Miss
66.9%
Avg Implied 63.3% · @ 1.47
Edge
+3.5%
35%
31%
34%
covers Wisla Plock + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Wisla Plock or Korona Kielce✓ Hit
65.8%
Avg Implied 71.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
-5.4%
35%
31%
34%
covers Wisla Plock + Korona Kielce
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Draw or Korona Kielce✓ Hit
67.3%
Avg Implied 65.4% · @ 1.42
Edge
+1.9%
35%
31%
34%
covers Draw + Korona Kielce
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.43
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wisla Plock over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
61.8%
@ 1.33-8.0%
Under
38.2%
@ 3.06+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.27
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.08
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Wisla Plock over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.0%
@ 2.66-10.0%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.43+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.69
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Wisla Plock over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 6.37-7.2%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.09+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.95
Marathonbet
6.70
BetVictor
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Wisla Plock over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 15.58-4.5%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Korona Kielce over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.1%
@ 1.30-9.1%
Under
37.9%
@ 3.22+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.54
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Korona Kielce over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.3%
@ 2.54-11.3%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.47+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.56
1xBet
2.56
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Korona Kielce over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 6.01-8.0%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.10+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.35
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Korona Kielce over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 14.50-4.9%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wisla Plock, so a minus line means Wisla Plock give that many goals of a start and Korona Kielce receive them. At -1, Wisla Plock must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wisla Plock win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wisla Plock)Actual: Korona Kielce
Wisla Plock -2
3.4%
@ 11.82-4.1%
Draw -2
9.0%
@ 6.85-3.9%
Korona Kielce +2
87.5%
@ 1.12+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
12.00
Unibet
11.00
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Away
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Handicap -1 (Wisla Plock)Actual: Korona Kielce
Wisla Plock -1
12.5%
@ 5.42-4.0%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 4.19-1.1%
Korona Kielce +1
67.3%
@ 1.43+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
3.85
Away
Unibet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Handicap +1 (Wisla Plock)Actual: Korona Kielce
Wisla Plock +1
66.9%
@ 1.47+6.0%
Draw +1
20.4%
@ 4.12-1.4%
Korona Kielce -1
12.8%
@ 5.17-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Handicap +2 (Wisla Plock)Actual: Draw
Wisla Plock +2
87.2%
@ 1.12+8.1%
Draw +2
9.2%
@ 6.86-3.7%
Korona Kielce -2
3.6%
@ 11.20-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.90
10Bet
6.50
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Superbet
11.00
10Bet
11.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wisla Plock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.54
0.23
0.47
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.50
0.55
0.27
0.38
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Korona Kielce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Korona Kielce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.64
0.64
0.62
0.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.43
0.70
0.30
0.82
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
64.8%
@ 1.41-1.1%
Under 0.5
35.2%
@ 2.72+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.44
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Unibet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.9%
@ 2.95-2.6%
Under 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.36+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.0%
@ 7.75-2.9%
Under 2.5
91.0%
@ 1.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.20
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wisla Plock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.4%
@ 2.18-2.3%
Under
59.6%
@ 1.62+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Wisla Plock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.24-4.9%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.07+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.90
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Wisla Plock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 18.75-3.7%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Korona Kielce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.5%
@ 2.15-1.9%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.65+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Korona Kielce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.5%
@ 6.86-4.0%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.07+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.60
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Korona Kielce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 17.75-3.9%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wisla Plock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.87
0.15
0.85
0.59
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.92
0.09
0.91
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Korona Kielce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Korona Kielce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.62
0.50
0.60
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.3%
@ 1.26-0.2%
Under 0.5
26.7%
@ 3.51+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Under
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.5%
@ 2.25-0.8%
Under 1.5
59.5%
@ 1.58+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
William Hil
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Under
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 5.01-3.2%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.14+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.25
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wisla Plock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.3%
@ 1.85-1.5%
Under
51.7%
@ 1.84+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.82
Wisla Plock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 5.40-3.8%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.12+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.70
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Wisla Plock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 13.38-5.2%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Korona Kielce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.1%
@ 1.81-3.1%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.90+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Korona Kielce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 5.06-4.2%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.14+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Korona Kielce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 12.75-4.3%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
95.3%
1.07
Pinnacle
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.10
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.07
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.5%
1.12
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.2%
1.12
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.14
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.14
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.6%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.0%
1.43
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
1.47
Pinnacle
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
+11.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.3%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.1%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+2.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Wisla Plock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcin Flis33%
Žan Rogelj20%
Said Hamulić20%
Marcin Kamiński0%
Jurica Pršir0%
Patryk Kun0%
Łukasz Sekulski0%
Rafał Leszczyński0%
Fabian Hiszpański0%
Dani Pacheco0%
Adam Radwański0%
Marcus Haglind Sangre0%
Jime0%
Olaf Kobacki0%
Krystian Pomorski0%
Dion Gallapeni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jurica Pršir67%
Dion Gallapeni50%
Marcin Flis33%
Dani Pacheco33%
Olaf Kobacki25%
Marcus Haglind Sangre20%
Marcin Kamiński0%
Patryk Kun0%
Łukasz Sekulski0%
Rafał Leszczyński0%
Fabian Hiszpański0%
Adam Radwański0%
Žan Rogelj0%
Jime0%
Krystian Pomorski0%
Said Hamulić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dani Pacheco33%
Marcin Kamiński0%
Jurica Pršir0%
Patryk Kun0%
Łukasz Sekulski0%
Marcin Flis0%
Rafał Leszczyński0%
Fabian Hiszpański0%
Adam Radwański0%
Žan Rogelj0%
Marcus Haglind Sangre0%
Jime0%
Olaf Kobacki0%
Krystian Pomorski0%
Said Hamulić0%
Dion Gallapeni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Said Hamulić60%
Marcin Flis33%
Marcin Kamiński0%
Jurica Pršir0%
Patryk Kun0%
Łukasz Sekulski0%
Rafał Leszczyński0%
Fabian Hiszpański0%
Dani Pacheco0%
Adam Radwański0%
Žan Rogelj0%
Marcus Haglind Sangre0%
Jime0%
Olaf Kobacki0%
Krystian Pomorski0%
Dion Gallapeni0%
Korona Kielce
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mariusz Stępiński75%
Morgan Fassbender25%
Constantinos Sotiriou0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Nono0%
Patrik Hellebrand0%
Martin Remacle0%
Ariel Mosór0%
Marcel Pięczek0%
Xavier Dziekoński0%
Kamil Jakubczyk0%
Daniel Bąk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kamil Jakubczyk50%
Slobodan Rubežić33%
Wiktor Długosz25%
Patrik Hellebrand25%
Morgan Fassbender25%
Constantinos Sotiriou0%
Mariusz Stępiński0%
Nono0%
Martin Remacle0%
Ariel Mosór0%
Marcel Pięczek0%
Xavier Dziekoński0%
Daniel Bąk0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Wiktor Długosz50%
Martin Remacle25%
Constantinos Sotiriou0%
Mariusz Stępiński0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Nono0%
Patrik Hellebrand0%
Ariel Mosór0%
Marcel Pięczek0%
Morgan Fassbender0%
Xavier Dziekoński0%
Kamil Jakubczyk0%
Daniel Bąk0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mariusz Stępiński50%
Wiktor Długosz25%
Morgan Fassbender25%
Constantinos Sotiriou0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Nono0%
Patrik Hellebrand0%
Martin Remacle0%
Ariel Mosór0%
Marcel Pięczek0%
Xavier Dziekoński0%
Kamil Jakubczyk0%
Daniel Bąk0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Wisla Plock's squad is €3m less valuable than Korona Kielce's (€12m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Wisla Plock's midfield is €5m less valuable than Korona Kielce's (€3m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce have a similar defence value (both €6m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
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Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
Wieczysta Kraków
Raków Częstochowa