Wolfsberger AC vs Ried Result & Analysis

Wolfsberger AC are the clear favourites, with a 56% chance of victory, 24% for a draw and 20% for an away win. The match is expected to see three goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.3% probability. Wolfsberger, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.25 goals scored and 3.0 conceded, while Ried, on the road, average zero goals scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 92.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.1% and Over 23.5 fouls at 71.8%. Wolfsberger’s recent form shows a draw, a 0-0 against Grazer AK, while Ried come off a 2-3 loss to TSV Hartberg. The predicted outcome, however, favours a home win.

The upset came early as Ried overturned Wolfsberger AC to win 2-1, a result that surprised the pre-match favourite, Home win, which the model had assigned a 56% probability to. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away triumph. Wolfsberger had been coming off a draw in their last five, while Ried had just suffered a defeat, yet the away side pulled through. The model’s suggested picks all performed well: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 92.1%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 83.8%, Over 1.5 hit at 81.3%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 77.5%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 77.1%, but Over 23.5 fouls missed at 71.8%.