Wrexham are tipped to win, with a 42% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of a Birmingham victory. The expected total is 2.6 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.5% probability. Wrexham, playing at home against a similar-strength side, average 1.92 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Birmingham, on the road, average 0.83 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (98.1% with a 1% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.9% with a 4% edge) and Under 5.5 (94.7% with a 1% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Home win, did not materialise as Wrexham fell 1-2 to Birmingham, ending their run of mixed results with a defeat. The model had picked a home victory with a 42% probability, but the actual result was an away win. The final score of 1-2 confirms the upset. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.4%; Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6%; Under 6.5 hit at 98.1%; Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1%; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.1%; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.8%; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.9%; and Under 5.5 hit at 94.7%. The model’s prediction for the match outcome was wrong, but its other selections all proved correct.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wrexham winâś— Miss
42.3%
Avg Implied 41.7% · @ 2.26
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.48
SBO
2.36
Unibet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.26
Dafabet
2.26
Drawâś— Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.22
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.35
Betano
3.30
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Birmingham winâś“ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.24
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.50
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.40
Superbet
3.35
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Wrexham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.53
1.94
1.75
1.36
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.63
2.00
1.92
2.00
1.14
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.60
2.00
0.67
1.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.27
1.31
1.38
1.00
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.04
1.36
1.07
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
@ 1.36+6.3%
Under 1.5
24.6%
@ 3.04-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Under
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.15
Betfair
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.3%
@ 2.12+4.7%
Under 2.5
50.7%
@ 1.71-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.83
SBO
1.80
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Superbet
1.68
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.4%
@ 3.78+2.6%
Under 3.5
72.6%
@ 1.25-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
@ 1.84+3.9%
No
45.5%
@ 1.89-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.85
No
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
1.97
William Hil
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.82+5.8%
1-0
9.1%@ 6.82+2.6%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.59+3.7%
0-0
8.3%@ 8.13+2.8%
2-0
7.6%@ 10.05+3.1%
1-2 âś“
7.3%@ 10.54+3.0%
0-1
7.2%@ 8.35+1.8%
2-2
5.3%@ 13.70+2.0%
Wrexham goals ↓
Birmingham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
7.2%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.1%
14%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.0%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.4%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wrexham goals (down), columns = Birmingham goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Wrexham is 0.15 points better than Birmingham in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Wrexham is 0.26 goals better than Birmingham in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Wrexham is 0.20 goals worse than Birmingham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Wrexham is 5.6 percentage points worse than Birmingham in terms of average possession (48% vs 54%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wrexham or Drawâś— Miss
70.6%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.33
Edge
+0.0%
42%
28%
29%
covers Wrexham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Wrexham or Birminghamâś“ Hit
71.7%
Avg Implied 71.4% · @ 1.31
Edge
+0.3%
42%
28%
29%
covers Wrexham + Birmingham
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Draw or Birminghamâś“ Hit
57.7%
Avg Implied 58.1% · @ 1.61
Edge
-0.3%
42%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Birmingham
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.63
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wrexham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.8%
@ 1.26+3.2%
Under
23.2%
@ 3.52-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.68
BetVictor
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Wrexham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.9%
@ 2.31+2.6%
Under
57.1%
@ 1.56-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
BetVictor
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Superbet
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Wrexham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 5.23+0.4%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.13-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Wrexham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 11.65-2.0%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Birmingham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.4%
@ 1.41+3.4%
Under
30.6%
@ 2.74-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.76
Bet365
2.75
Birmingham over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.2%
@ 3.03+2.4%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.35-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.37
Marathonbet
3.22
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Under
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Birmingham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 7.42-0.8%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.06+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
8.10
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Under
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Birmingham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 19.00-1.8%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wrexham, so a minus line means Wrexham give that many goals of a start and Birmingham receive them. At -1, Wrexham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wrexham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wrexham)Actual: Birmingham
Wrexham -2
8.2%
@ 10.28-0.6%
Draw -2
13.0%
@ 6.41-1.0%
Birmingham +2
78.8%
@ 1.17+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.00
Draw
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.20
Away
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Handicap -1 (Wrexham)Actual: Birmingham
Wrexham -1
21.2%
@ 4.42+1.0%
Draw -1
21.1%
@ 3.77-2.5%
Birmingham +1
57.7%
@ 1.59+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Draw
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Handicap +1 (Wrexham)Actual: Draw
Wrexham +1
70.6%
@ 1.33+3.2%
Draw +1
16.9%
@ 4.58-2.8%
Birmingham -1
12.6%
@ 6.96-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Superbet
6.70
Unibet
6.40
Handicap +2 (Wrexham)Actual: Wrexham
Wrexham +2
87.4%
@ 1.08+2.9%
Draw +2
8.5%
@ 9.12-1.5%
Birmingham -2
4.0%
@ 16.75-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.00
Away
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Unibet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wrexham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
1.19
0.81
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.89
1.08
1.00
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.20
1.67
0.00
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.75
0.69
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.62
0.79
0.57
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.3%
@ 1.43+3.3%
Under 0.5
31.7%
@ 2.66-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Under
William Hil
2.80
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.0%
@ 3.04+0.3%
Under 1.5
69.0%
@ 1.34-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.30
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.6%
@ 7.79-1.3%
Under 2.5
89.4%
@ 1.06+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Under
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wrexham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.8%
@ 2.06-1.4%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.70+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
10Bet
1.67
Wrexham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 6.28-3.3%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.08+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.45
Unibet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Wrexham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 16.38-3.0%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Birmingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.6%
@ 2.40+1.7%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.53-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.43
Superbet
2.42
Under
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Birmingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 8.08+0.6%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.05-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.30
Betano
7.80
Unibet
7.50
Under
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Birmingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 23.25-2.8%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wrexham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.75
0.94
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.84
1.11
0.83
1.00
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.67
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.56
0.69
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.42
0.57
0.50
0.42
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.0%
@ 1.26+4.5%
Under 0.5
22.0%
@ 3.52-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Under
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Betano
3.55
Superbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.0%
@ 2.24+4.2%
Under 1.5
54.0%
@ 1.60-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.32
1xBet
2.31
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.7%
@ 4.97+2.0%
Under 2.5
79.3%
@ 1.15-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.50
Superbet
5.45
1xBet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wrexham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.9%
@ 1.73-0.6%
Under
47.1%
@ 1.99+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Wrexham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.5%
@ 4.51-2.0%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.16+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Wrexham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 11.75-3.9%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
Birmingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.8%
@ 2.02+7.9%
Under
46.2%
@ 1.71-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
1.98
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Birmingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 5.93+0.9%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.10-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Birmingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 16.38-3.0%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
âś“ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.3%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
âś“ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.8%
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+0.9%
âś“ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.0%
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
+1.3%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+3.3%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
1.06
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
+0.8%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-0.6%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.4%
1.08
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
-
+2.9%
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5
87.1%
1.07
Pinnacle
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
-0.4%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.10
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-0.9%
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.8%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-0.4%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.16
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
+2.0%
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
-2.0%
âś“ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
+1.6%
âś“ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
+4.5%
âś“ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+3.2%
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
75.4%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Betfair
1.36
+6.3%
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.2%
1.35
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.30
-
-
+7.1%
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
72.6%
1.25
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-2.6%
âś“ Hit
Home or Away
71.7%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
+0.3%
âś“ Hit
Home or Draw
70.6%
1.33
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+0.0%
âś— Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
1.33
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
+3.2%
âś— Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.0%
1.43
Superbet
1.48
Betfair
1.45
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
+5.4%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Wrexham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kieffer Moore40%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben Whiteman40%
Dominic Hyam40%
Bailey Cadamarteri33%
Nathan Broadhead25%
Kieffer Moore20%
Sam Smith20%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Daniel Imray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Imray40%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Kieffer Moore0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Callum Doyle0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kieffer Moore40%
Sam Smith20%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Birmingham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Gray33%
August Priske33%
P. Neumann17%
Seung Ho Paik0%
L. Vázquez0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
P. Roberts0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bright Osayi-Samuel67%
P. Roberts33%
J. Solis33%
L. Vázquez17%
Alex Cochrane17%
Seung Ho Paik0%
D. Gray0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Beadle0%
August Priske0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Roberts33%
Seung Ho Paik17%
Alex Cochrane17%
Carlos Vicente17%
August Priske17%
L. Vázquez0%
D. Gray0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Seung Ho Paik17%
D. Gray17%
J. Stansfield17%
August Priske17%
L. Vázquez0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
P. Roberts0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Wrexham's squad is €16m less valuable than Birmingham's (€77m vs €93m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Wrexham's attack is €31m less valuable than Birmingham's (€15m vs €46m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Wrexham's midfield is €10m more valuable than Birmingham's (€23m vs €12m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Wrexham's defence is €5m more valuable than Birmingham's (€39m vs €35m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Sheffield United
Millwall
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston