AC Milan are tipped to win this Serie A clash, with the model assigning a 52% chance to a home victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 21% chance for Venezia to upset the hosts. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12.7% probability. Milan’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded, while Venezia’s away record against similar teams is not provided. The model’s selections favour a tight match: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5%, Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8% with a 3% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5% with a 1% edge, Under 6.5 at 98.3% with a 3% edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.3% with a 4% edge, Under 5.5 at 95.2% with a 5% edge and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.3% with a 4% edge. Milan entered the game after a win over Torino, while Venezia come off a defeat to Lecce.
Results analysis
AC Milan extended their two-game winning run with a 2-0 triumph over Venezia, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 50% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections also performed well: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.5%, Under 7.5 hit at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.3%, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 95.3%, Under 5.5 hit at 95.2%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.3%. All eight picks settled as the model expected. The match finished 2-0, matching the predicted home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AC Milan win✓ Hit
50.4%
Avg Implied 65.1% · @ 1.46
Edge
-14.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.50
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.70
1xBet
4.68
10Bet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Venezia win✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied 13.8% · @ 6.91
Edge
+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
8.10
Pinnacle
7.13
1xBet
7.06
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AC Milan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.97
1.21
1.07
1.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (18)
1.61
1.11
1.38
1.38
1.80
0.90
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Venezia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.80
2.25
0.69
2.00
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.88
0.88
1.88
0.88
1.88
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
2.43
0.71
2.62
0.50
2.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
@ 1.23-1.1%
Under 1.5
24.1%
@ 4.11+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Under
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.74-4.7%
Under 2.5
49.9%
@ 2.11+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
SBO
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.75
Under
1xBet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Betfair
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
@ 2.81-5.5%
Under 3.5
71.9%
@ 1.42+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Pinnacle
2.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.1%
@ 1.89+3.6%
No
46.9%
@ 1.86-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
No
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 8.00+7.1%
1-0
10.1%@ 6.64+3.2%
2-1
9.6%@ 7.68+3.6%
2-0 ✓
9.3%@ 6.68+2.4%
0-0
8.1%@ 12.44+4.4%
1-2
6.0%@ 18.46+3.5%
0-1
5.9%@ 15.89+3.0%
3-1
5.3%@ 11.01+1.1%
AC Milan goals ↓
Venezia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
5.9%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.0%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.6%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.1%
5.3%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AC Milan goals (down), columns = Venezia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
AC Milan is 0.72 points better than Venezia in terms of average points per game (1.84 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
AC Milan is 0.40 goals better than Venezia in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
AC Milan is 0.56 goals better than Venezia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AC Milan
For 3.1 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.2 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Venezia
For 5.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 14.4 · Total 29.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Milan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.7
8.7
3.7
4.2
3.3
21.8
22.1
21.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
8.4
7.5
9.3
4.4
5.1
3.6
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Weaker (29)
8.9
9.7
8.3
3.2
3.4
3.1
22.3
22.2
22.4
% over line
42%
50%
35%
54%
71%
38%
54%
54%
54%
% under line
58%
50%
65%
46%
29%
62%
46%
46%
46%
This opponent (Venezia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Venezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.3
9.9
4.3
4.4
4.2
29.7
30.9
28.4
vs Stronger (3)
10.7
10.7
-
2.3
2.3
-
27.3
27.3
-
vs Similar (31)
8.7
7.9
9.4
4.3
4.9
3.8
30.2
33.0
27.6
vs Weaker (16)
9.5
8.1
10.9
4.7
4.4
5.0
29.2
28.4
30.0
% over line
44%
27%
62%
66%
73%
58%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
56%
73%
38%
34%
27%
42%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (AC Milan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.3
Venezia
9.1
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Fiorentina
8.8
Cagliari
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Torino
8.5
Parma
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.4
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Venezia
4.3
Sassuolo
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.1
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.2
Venezia
29.7
Bologna
28.5
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.2
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
25.0
Sassuolo
24.5
Torino
24.4
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.3
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
40.4%
@ 1.99-6.4%
Under 9.5
59.6%
@ 1.75+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.87
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.6%
@ 2.32+11.4%
Under 3.5
48.4%
@ 1.55-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Unibet
2.40
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.50
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
64.5%
@ 1.66+8.5%
Under 21.5
35.5%
@ 2.11-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.52
Under
1xBet
2.27
Betano
1.95
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AC Milan or Draw✓ Hit
80.1%
Avg Implied 85.6% · @ 1.10
Edge
-5.5%
50%
27%
23%
covers AC Milan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
AC Milan or Venezia✓ Hit
73.2%
Avg Implied 79.5% · @ 1.19
Edge
-6.2%
50%
27%
23%
covers AC Milan + Venezia
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Draw or Venezia✗ Miss
46.6%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.70
Edge
+11.7%
50%
27%
23%
covers Draw + Venezia
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.74
SBO
2.70
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AC Milan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.9%
@ 1.09-4.6%
Under
19.1%
@ 6.41+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Under
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Unibet
6.25
AC Milan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
49.3%
@ 1.54-11.5%
Under
50.7%
@ 2.39+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.48
1xBet
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
AC Milan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.1%
@ 2.69-11.6%
Under
76.9%
@ 1.43+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.74
BetVictor
2.70
Under
Marathonbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
AC Milan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 5.40-8.6%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.13+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Under
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Venezia over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.5%
@ 1.66+4.4%
Under
39.5%
@ 2.12-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Venezia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.8%
@ 4.37+2.4%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.19-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.41
1xBet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Venezia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 12.44-0.9%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.03+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
13.20
Marathonbet
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Venezia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 31.33-1.6%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
39.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AC Milan, so a minus line means AC Milan give that many goals of a start and Venezia receive them. At -1, AC Milan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AC Milan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AC Milan)Actual: Draw
AC Milan -2
12.8%
@ 4.06-9.5%
Draw -2
16.8%
@ 4.23-4.7%
Venezia +2
70.4%
@ 1.61+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
3.90
Away
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
Handicap -1 (AC Milan)Actual: AC Milan
AC Milan -1
29.6%
@ 2.21-11.4%
Draw -1
23.7%
@ 3.53-1.9%
Venezia +1
46.6%
@ 2.72+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.32
Superbet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.14
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Away
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
Superbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Handicap +1 (AC Milan)Actual: AC Milan
AC Milan +1
80.1%
@ 1.09-1.4%
Draw +1
12.8%
@ 7.28+0.5%
Venezia -1
7.1%
@ 14.37+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
10Bet
19.00
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
14.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Handicap +2 (AC Milan)Actual: AC Milan
AC Milan +2
92.9%
@ 1.01-0.8%
Draw +2
5.3%
@ 20.50+0.6%
Venezia -2
1.8%
@ 56.00+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
Away
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AC Milan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.43
0.64
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.42
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
0.61
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.70
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Venezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.30
1.06
0.31
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.31
0.62
0.50
0.88
0.12
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.29
1.50
0.12
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.33-0.9%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.22+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Under
Superbet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.6%
@ 2.53-2.4%
Under 1.5
65.4%
@ 1.49+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
1xBet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.57
Under
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.9%
@ 6.10-3.4%
Under 2.5
88.1%
@ 1.10+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AC Milan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
56.9%
@ 1.55-3.2%
Under
43.1%
@ 2.34+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.32
Unibet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
AC Milan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.8%
@ 3.66-4.4%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.24+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
Betano
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Unibet
3.70
Superbet
3.50
Under
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
AC Milan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 9.46-4.1%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
9.40
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Venezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.6%
@ 3.00-1.3%
Under
70.4%
@ 1.35+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.22
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.10
1xBet
2.90
Betano
2.90
Under
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Venezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 10.62-4.1%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Venezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 50.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AC Milan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.79
0.43
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.33
0.67
0.17
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.56
0.88
0.62
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Venezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.19
0.38
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.56
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.43
1.12
0.38
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.7%
@ 1.19+1.4%
Under 0.5
20.3%
@ 4.30-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.9%
@ 1.97-4.8%
Under 1.5
57.1%
@ 1.80+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Under
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Unibet
1.76
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.2%
@ 4.00-4.1%
Under 2.5
80.8%
@ 1.22+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.94
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AC Milan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.0%
@ 1.38-2.2%
Under
35.0%
@ 2.84+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
AC Milan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
26.3%
@ 2.76-7.4%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.40+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Betano
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
AC Milan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 6.60-4.3%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.07+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Venezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.1%
@ 2.38-3.0%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.53+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Under
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Venezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 8.28-4.4%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.04+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Venezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 22.50-3.0%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.3%
1.13
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.0%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.3%
1.18
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.0%
1.26
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
10Bet
1.08
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.1%
1.10
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.1%
1.09
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.2%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.9%
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
76.9%
1.43
Marathonbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+11.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.2%
1.19
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.7%
1.40
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
+7.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.2%
1.19
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
-6.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.2%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.57
+14.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.42
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.4%
1.44
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
70.4%
1.61
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
+14.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.35
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AC Milan · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafael Leão29%
Christian Pulišić24%
Christopher Nkunku21%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Strahinja Pavlović14%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Alexis Saelemaekers8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Youssouf Fofana6%
Luka Modrić6%
Santiago Giménez6%
Niclas Füllkrug5%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Samuele Ricci3%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pervis Estupiñán29%
Fikayo Tomori19%
Strahinja Pavlović16%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Rafael Leão16%
Alexis Saelemaekers13%
Matteo Gabbia13%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Luka Modrić11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Zachary Athekame11%
Mike Maignan10%
Davide Bartesaghi9%
Koni De Winter7%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek6%
Christian Pulišić0%
Christopher Nkunku0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christian Pulišić12%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Alexis Saelemaekers11%
Rafael Leão10%
Christopher Nkunku9%
Luka Modrić8%
Fikayo Tomori8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Ardon Jashari6%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek3%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafael Leão26%
Christian Pulišić21%
Santiago Giménez17%
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christopher Nkunku12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Matteo Gabbia6%
Ardon Jashari6%
Alexis Saelemaekers5%
Samuele Ricci3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Luka Modrić0%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Pervis Estupiñán0%
Koni De Winter0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
Davide Bartesaghi0%
David Odogu0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Venezia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
John Yeboah33%
R. Sagrado33%
Akor Adams25%
S. Sohm0%
Thierry Correia0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
Ridgeciano Haps0%
Gianluca Busio0%
Kike Pérez0%
Filip Stanković0%
Antoine Hainaut0%
A. Rrahmani0%
R. Halhal0%
J. Schingtienne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kike Pérez33%
J. Schingtienne33%
R. Sagrado33%
Ridgeciano Haps25%
S. Sohm0%
Thierry Correia0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
John Yeboah0%
Gianluca Busio0%
Akor Adams0%
Filip Stanković0%
Antoine Hainaut0%
A. Rrahmani0%
R. Halhal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Akor Adams25%
S. Sohm0%
Thierry Correia0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
John Yeboah0%
Ridgeciano Haps0%
Gianluca Busio0%
Kike Pérez0%
Filip Stanković0%
Antoine Hainaut0%
A. Rrahmani0%
R. Halhal0%
J. Schingtienne0%
R. Sagrado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Akor Adams50%
John Yeboah33%
Gianluca Busio33%
Kike Pérez33%
S. Sohm0%
Thierry Correia0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
Ridgeciano Haps0%
Filip Stanković0%
Antoine Hainaut0%
A. Rrahmani0%
R. Halhal0%
J. Schingtienne0%
R. Sagrado0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
AC Milan's squad is €468m more valuable than Venezia's (€585m vs €117m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
AC Milan's attack is €184m more valuable than Venezia's (€223m vs €39m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
AC Milan's midfield is €122m more valuable than Venezia's (€153m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
AC Milan's defence is €162m more valuable than Venezia's (€209m vs €47m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Fiorentina